Key to what the long-term performance will be of ASM2 will be how well it holds in its second weekend. Since Sony has been using the Disney/Marvel Captain America: The Winter Soldier comp, let’s look at that. In its second weekend, the Cap dropped 51% in its second weekend out. However, it had a full four weeks before Spidey swung into theaters. There was some question whether Transcendence would make a dent in its box office, but that bombed so had little effect. So Captain America really had some room to play. ASM2 has only one more weekend before the Warner Bros./Legendary Pictures’ Godzilla tsunami. The second thing we need to look at is historically at what the percentages drops have been for the last Spider-Man pics in their second weekends’ out. ASM, which made most of its gross before it hit Friday because it opened on a Tuesday prior to the July 4th holiday, had a 3-day weekend to weekend drop of 44%. Spider-Man 3 had a 61% decline; Spider-Man 2 dropped 49% and Spider-Man dropped only 41%. So, if tradition holds to a mid-40% drop in its sophomore frame, ASM2 could make anywhere around $260M to $270M domestically … so maybe $800M all in … we’ll see how international rolls in … and it’s rolling in from China daily since Sunday. Read Nancy Tartaglione’s international box office report here.
Avi Arad, who was there from the very beginnings of the original Spider-Man film, said: “It was a spectacular opening for what I call Spider-Man 5. I am incredibly happy with the franchise. It will continue. Marvel is a huge universe, and the most interesting villians are in the Spider-Man universe. If James Bond can go on and on … I think sequels can go on forever. Marvel started with licensing out the name. It was Mike DeLuca who took the first one, Blade. He and I came from the same neighborhood and he understood the value of the comics.”
Arad credits certain people at Sony for embracing Spider-Man. “Spider-Man was not an easy sell initially,” he said. “The major personality who pushed this back in the day was (Sony co-chair) Amy Pascal. She fell in love with the boy. It was (the late) John Calley, Amy and (producer) Matt Tolmach and (former Sony vice chair) Yair Landau.”
Next weekend openers: The frat-boy prank comedy Neighbors (UNI) which is playing predominantly with young males but delivers; Moms’ Night Out (Sony/TriStar) which should do well with the faith-based crowd, Chef (OPRD) with Jon Favreau and Sofia Vergara, and the animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy Returns (Clarius). Final Top 20 chart follows: (more…)