Analysts Cheer Disney’s $4B Lucasfilm Deal, But Could It Run Into A Fantasy Glut?

Reactions to the transaction, which includes at least three new Star Wars films, are so lopsidedly enthusiastic that I’m hoping to see at least one analyst offer a contrarian view. Someone could start by addressing a question that was posed yesterday to Disney CEO Bob Iger, but that he mostly sidestepped: To paraphrase, he was asked whether there’s a risk that Hollywood may run into trouble by feeding audiences too many superhero/sci-fi/fantasy films. Susquehanna Financial Group’s Vasily Karasyov made a case last year that as theaters become inundated with these computer-animated extravaganzas — especially featuring comic book superheroes — “risk of underperformance increases and upside surprises become progressively less likely.” His view of Disney’s new deal is that we’ll have to wait to see how the next Star Wars film performs in 2015 to determine whether Iger made a smart move. “Until then, bulls will point to the success of The Avengers and bears will say that no franchise lasts forever,” he says. (Those interested in the subject of a superhero glut should also check out critic David Denby’s powerful cultural critique, “Has Hollywood Murdered The Movies?”, that ran last month in The New Republic.) (more…)

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