Michael Ausiello is Editor-in-Chief of TVLine.
When looking over this year’s nominees for the reality-competition Emmy, the saying “Been there, done that” might come to mind, were it not for one glaring omission and one shining inclusion. For the first time since the category was created in 2003, Fox’s American Idol did not make the cut, and, in its place, NBC’s The Voice did.
Still, when the statuette is handed out–considering that CBS’ The Amazing Race has lost only once in the last nine years–another saying might seem apropos: The more things change, the more they stay the same. While you draw your own conclusions, here’s our assessment of the nominees and their chances: