Tracking: Simpsons $50M, Bourne $40M

The Simpsons Movie tracking for its July 27th release is looking very strong, with estimates coming in to me of a $50+ opening weekend. I don’t see a single misstep by Fox when it comes to marketing this toon so far: the plot is still somewhat secret, the bloggers are overheated, the 7-Eleven reverse product placement is epic. And the pic’s appeal, like the TV series, crosses all ages, races, creeds and ethnicities. “Huge hit” is everyone’s analysis, and the foreign gross receipts will be massive.

Universal is already anticipating a big new Matt Damon The Bourne Ultimatum for August 3rd. And they’re right: my box office analysts are projecting a $40+ million opening for this threequel in the profitable franchise. That’s great for a PG-13 thriller light on CGI these days — and bigger than Bourne #2 (the June 2002 original The Bourne Identity which opened to $27 mil), but not Bourne #1 (the July 2004 sequel The Bourne Supremacy which debuted to $53 mil). The bad news is that a lot of tentpoles will still be going strong in theaters come August, and I hear reshoots made the price of this Bourne creep upwards. With the new pic billed as the last of this Jason Bourne trilogy, it’s a veritable must-see.

Finally, New Line’s Rush Hour 3 came on tracking looking “strong” for August 10th. Too early for numbers. But for weeks and weeks, the trailers have been praised for being especially funny.

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