Paramount’s feature adaptation of classic Sega videogame Sonic the Hedgehog will definitely open according to tracking this morning with a 4-day opening range of $41M-$47M. Males under 25 are all in for this.
Paramount pushed the estimated $95M production from Nov. 8 last year to the Valentine’s Day/Presidents Day four-day weekend this year on Feb. 14 to fix VFX and Sonic’s teeth, which freaked the social media universe out in the pic’s first trailer.
After Paramount dropped the second trailer on Nov. 12 they received a positive response with the highest like-to-dislike ratio on Google of any official studio trailer in the last 3 years (at that time). The data clearly indicated the positive reaction from the social media universe to the pic’s redesign.
Initial viral rate for the second Sonic trailer was high at 56:1 back in November, with YouTube views now near 28M, 18.6M of that was generated in the trailer’s first two days after posting.
For context, RelishMix reports that those two-day figures for the second Sonic trailer were on par with Pokemon Detective Pikachu, which had a very similar trailer debut in November 2018 with 13-15M views. Pikachu went on to 72M+ views for its trailer with that movie (being the first big studio pic in the wake of Avengers: Endgame last May) opening to $54.3M.
Sony/Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island
is currently speaking to older males and females with a 4-day start between $12M-$16M. Under 25 males aren’t in for this big pic take on the ’80s ABC thriller TV series. The pic starring Michael Pena as the mysterious facilitator of fantasies, Mr. Roarke, was made for a song at an estimated $7M.
Universal’s has the African American romance The Photograph
starring Issa Rae and LaKeith Stanfield which is eyeing a $10M-$14M four-day start.
A year ago, 20th Century Fox’s Alita: Battle Angel led all movies at the Presidents Day/Valentine’s Day box office with a 3-day of $28.5M, 5-day of $42.2M after a Wednesday start.