Any sweat Sony is apt to endure this weekend with the potential under-performance of Men in Black: International will be extremely alleviated in less than three weeks when their Marvel Cinematic Universe co-production Spider-Man: Far From Home puts summer back on track with a $170M-plus opening over six days.
And there’s a bulk of historical and current B.O. and social diagnostics to support that projection. Read on.
One of the top tracking services has Far From Home at $165M, and more aggressive box office analysts believe the movie has a shot to make $200M (though some say that would be a shocker). Sony is being very conservative, with $154M for the Tuesday-Sunday spread.
We hear tracking demos for Far From Home are on par with Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M). Of course, Far From Home is skewing more male, with older females over 25 the lower demo — but even that is super strong, we hear. The first Spider-Man: Homecoming, a team-up with Sony and Disney’s MCU characters, opened to $117M over the July 7-9, 2017 weekend, and reps Sony’s second-highest domestic opening of all-time, behind 2007’s Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M).
Among the best 6-day openers around the Independence Day period: 2004’s Spider-Man 2 ($180M, opened on Wednesday June 30, 2004);Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($176.3M, opened on Wednesday June 30, 2010); and Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($175.1M, opened on Wednesday June 29, 2011). The last time that July 4 fell on a Thursday was in 2013, when Despicable Me 2 led the domestic box office with a 5-day of $143M, 6 day of $153.4M, off a Wednesday opening. Business typically eases on July 4, as folks break for festivities. But it can still be robust: DM2 went from a first day Wednesday of $35M, -30% on July 4 with $24.5M, and that’s nothing to complain about.
On social media, the early May second trailer for Far From Home turned out to be a historical record draw for Sony, with 135.2M global views in 24 hours (paid and organic) besting that of the January teaser (130M views), and the first Homecoming trailer (116 million views). That 135M number is a remarkable result for Far From Home, as typically views decline on a movie’s second trailer.
Social media monitor RelishMix reports that the social media universe for Far From Home is at 857.7M, which is approaching the 860.1M SMU opening weekend figure of Homecoming. This SMU for Far From Home is comprised of 106.5M Facebook Fans, 39.4M FB views, 50M Twitter Followers, a huge 530.2M YouTube views and 131.6M Instagram Followers.
While the first Far From Home trailer has clocked close 61M views on YouTube, the second- biggest clip is of Spider-Man star Tom Holland, in costume, at the Children’s Hospital of LAm with 32.7M views to date and still over 35K views daily.