Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 hit tracking this morning and box office analysts are already buzzing that the fourthquel has a great shot at setting a new opening record for an animation film, besting Incredibles 2‘s 3-day last year of $182.6M. A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast. In the tracking number tea leaves, analysts see Toy Story 4 doing about 10% better than Incredibles 2. Toy Story 4 opens on June 21.
In addition to the best domestic opening of all-time for a feature toon, Incredibles 2 also owns the best global launch for the format at $235.8M, is the highest grossing animated film of all-time in U.S./Canada with $608.5M and second highest worldwide with $1.24B behind Frozen‘s $1.27B. Toy Story 3 opened in June 2010 to $110.3M stateside, now the 5th best of all-time.
On Fandango, Toy Story 4 outstripped the first 24 hour advance ticket sales of Pixar’s Finding Dory, as well as the live-action titles Beauty and the Beast, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.
On Atom Tickets, Toy Story 4 sold nearly 50% more tickets than their top 3 animated movie pre-sellers combined (for the same time period), which includes Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet and Hotel Transylvania 3.
According to a recent Summer Movie survey from Atom Tickets, Toy Story 4 cracked the competitive top 5 “most anticipated movies of the summer” list. Movie fans also voted for it as one of their top 3 “most anticipated family movies.”
Like Finding Dory and Incredibles 2, the secret sauce to Toy Story 4‘s success is its multi-generational appeal. ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak showed that general audiences repped 57% of the opening weekend audience to families’ 33%. Adults led the charge during Thursday previews and opening day Friday with the under 25 demo swelling to 66% by Saturday.