6th Update, Monday AM: In early morning studio reports, Avengers: Infinity War is now looking at a second weekend of $115.5M, a figure we first spotted all the way back on Friday afternoon. Note that’s -55% from the Marvel pic’s record opening. Rivals now estimate that Avengers made $37.5M yesterday, -20% from Saturday. All records, of course, still stand: Second fastest pic domestically to $400M in nine days after Force Awakens’ eight days and the second-best second weekend ever after Force Awakens ($149.2M).
Infinity War will rule the box office for a third time next weekend with $58M-$63M before Fox’s Deadpool 2 arrives with a $150M start on May 18. That’s because there aren’t any major studio event threats; just counter-programming with New Line’s Melissa McCarthy comedy Life of the Party with $18M-$21M and Universal’s African American thriller Breaking In eyeing $14M-$17M.
ComScore reports that the 2018 box office for the period of Jan. 1-May 6 is clocking $4.1 billion, 5.1% ahead of the same frame last year. Total ticket sales for the weekend were at $166M, -15% from a year ago when Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opened to $146.5M, but realize that last weekend when Infinity War debuted, it was the best weekend ever stateside with $313.9M, +215% from April’s final weekend in 2017.
Disney will announce their numbers soon.
5th Update Sunday AM after Friday and Saturday posts: Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War is coming in lower with $112.5M this weekend, per Disney, than the $120.2M second weekend the industry predicted yesterday morning. However, that’s like saying an Aaron Judge home run flew into the stands and didn’t clear Yankee Stadium.
At this number, Infinity War is still the second-best second weekend ever, behind only Force Awakens ($149.2M) and ahead of Black Panther ($111.6M). In addition, the Anthony and Joe Russo-directed movie crossed the $400M mark in 9 days yesterday, making the film the second- fastest to that point after Force Awakens’ eight–day record.
Infinity War‘s Saturday logged $46.6M, +48% over Friday’s $31.4M. Cume by EOD today looks to be $450.8M. The difference between Saturday morning and today’s estimates boils down to the fact that this second weekend was a hard one for box office analysts to predict with accuracy, given the limited amount of comps. Industry believes Infinity War is higher than what Disney is reporting at $113.5M.
As my Deadline colleague Nancy Tartaglione already reported, Infinity War is the fastest title ever to $1 billion.
Continued halo effect from Infinity War on exhibition: The Marvel sequel has broken the all- time 4DX (those are those motion seats) box office record for box office performance through a film’s first two weekends, on pace to $13.5M WW at 324 screens in 58 countries. On May 11, Infinity War will play at an additional 191 locations in China equipped with 4DX.
Shot entirely in Imax, Infinity War drew $9.4M at the large format exhib’s auditoriums for a running U.S./Canada total of $40.2M. Of the top 20 locations, 13 featured an Imax screen.
Black Panther, with $693.1M, looks to have less than $7M to get to $700M, and odds are Disney should be able to keep the movie in theaters just like Sony marched Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle toward $400M. Not only that, there’s an overlap in business between Infinity War and Black Panther. At 1,641 locations this weekend, T’Challa isn’t slowing down, drawing $3.14M in weekend 12, -34%. What’s clear, given the amount of cash that Black Panther is making on a handful of screens this far down the road, is that moviegoers are seeing this movie in addition to Infinity War.
Screen Engine/ComScore’s PostTrak in its continued polling shows an overall 87% positive, with four-and-a-half stars for Infinity War. Leading demos are men over 25 (35% who like it at 84%), women over 25 (25% enjoying at 89%), men under 25 (21% with a 91% positive) and women under 25 (18% with a 82% positive).
One thing is for sure: For the second weekend in a row, Infinity War will suck all the air out of the weekend, with most titles filing in the single digits. Some distributors will try to make a case for, ‘Hey look at my film! It only fell -40%!’ But the reality is that the competition, for the most part, isn’t really gathering a sizable amount of cash. At $313.9M in total ticket sales, last weekend was the best-ever at the domestic box office according to ComScore, beating the previous record weekend when Force Awakens debuted (Dec. 18-20, 2015 with $313.1M). Infinity War controlled 82% of last weekend’s sales. The only reason why many pics are maintaining their screens in the face of Infinity War is because there isn’t a bulk of new wide release competition. If there was, exhibitors would be booking those titles.
Social media is still going gonzo for Infinity War. Relish Mix reports that the pic’s record social media universe of 2.1 billion followers has jumped to 2.3B in the last week, driven by 224 YouTube views. Fans are talking about second and third trips they’ve made to the theater to see it again so they can catch all the twists and turns. Whether it’s positive or negative, there’s a great conversation being had. Says RelishMix, “Upon exiting theatres, the hashtag/tag frenzy continues for #InfinityWar and @Avengers over-indexing all week between 440k to 540k posts-per-day and a total of 5.8M unique Twitter posts over the last 30-days.” Official pages for Infinity War across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram jumped by 600K followers over the last week to 19.2M. Further bolstering word of mouth is PostTrak’s definite recommend score of 68%. Some interesting items making their way online: Last weekend, Marvel boss Kevin Feige posted a thank-you note to Marvel fans for the last 10 years, while Lucasfilm chief Kathleen Kennedy and her team congratulated Marvel on their Instagram.
Lionsgate/Pantelion/MGM’s Overboard will take second place for the weekend with $14.75M at 1,623 venues, the biggest opening in Pantelion’s history. The film cost in the low teens and Lionsgate has these Eugenio Derbez films down to a box office and ancillary science, stoking the Latino market and churning out a home entertainment life that’s 2x domestic B.O. This one was smartly dated to sync with the Cinco de Mayo holiday. PostTrak reports a Latino turnout of 41%, with the demo giving the pic an 83% positive. Four stars overall for the pic and a shiny A- CinemaScore. Overboard‘s opening is higher than the Mexican star’s April 28 release last year, How to Be a Latin Lover, which opened to $12.2M and yielded a 2.6 multiple for a final $32.1M. Expect the same here, given the pic’s PG-13 romantic comedy sensibility, as opposed to Pantelion’s Instructions Not Included, which played toward more families with a final stateside gross of $44.4M off a $5M production cost. MGM and Lionsgate co-financed Overboard, which cost in the low to mid-teens. Given the frugality of Lionsgate, and much like their Tyler Perry output, they wouldn’t be making these Derbez movies if they weren’t making money. In fact, Pantelion has a first-look deal with Derbez.
MGM Motion Pictures Group president Jonathan Glickman told Deadline how Overboard launched: Derbez and the studio were looking to do a film together, whether it was an original piece of IP or from the library. Derbez and his creative partner Ben Odell pitched the idea of re-making Overboard. “We’ve been pitched different versions of Overboard for almost eight years and we typically said ‘No’ because it seemed to be the same movie. With their take, it was time to take the plunge,” says Glickman. The gender swap — Derbez playing the Goldie Hawn role and Anna Faris the Kurt Russell role — seemed more appropriate in female empowerment times. Plus, Derbez brings a family element to the film. In the original, Hawn plays an heiress who, after taunting her hired carpenter (Russell), falls off a boat and gets amnesia as he parades her around as his wife. “When MGM brought this project to us, it had such a great script that delivered. Our response was, ‘Let’s go make this movie,'” said Paul Presburger, chief executive officer from Pantelion Films.
Originally, Overboard was scheduled on April 13. But when Infinity War moved around, LG took the title to this weekend. There was some risk and upside going on Cinco de Mayo: It’s a big holiday weekend with friends and family. But business was up yesterday, and LG is hoping that Sunday will see a further boost, as Hispanic audiences make their way to the cinema after church.
RelishMix considers the social buzz on Overboard to be good, with a social media universe of 120M above the genre’s typical online reach of 115M and video materials going viral at 11 to 1. “Many Hispanic fans are calling Derbez out as a primary reason to go see Overboard,” says RelishMix, and he has a great reach with over 31M followers. But Eva Longoria also is a big social magnet here at 18M+ followers, followed by Anna Faris, who counts 2.6M. Females are the majority at Overboard, making up 59% of the crowd, per PostTrak. Women over 25 at 45% give the pic a 77% positive.
Focus Features’ Tully made $3.185M at 1,353 locations. The dark comedy is a re-team between director Jason Reitman, scribe Diablo Cody, and star Charlize Theron. The movie follows Theron as a woman who has a third kid and develops a zany friendship with her night nanny, played by Mackenzie Davis. Despite having the best reviews of the weekend with an 89% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, this is not a great start for Tully. Sources tells me that $6.5M would be an ideal opening for this pic, which would get it to $15M. Pic’s start is below Reitman’s wide drama Labor Day, which bowed to $5.1M and ended its run at $13.3M. True, Reitman’s auteur feats aren’t necessarily about wide commercial plays; however, when he throws it down the middle and appeals to the masses, coupled with steam from award season, the sky has been the limit, i.e. Juno ($143M) and Up in the Air ($83.8M). The fact that Focus is going wide, rather than teeing this up as a platform, means they likely had to make their money back fast.
The film in its intrigue appeals more to the younger crowd than the intended adult audience, but the former isn’t showing up. Over 25 make up 87% of the audience, but give it a 71% positive score, while 13% under 25 like Tully at 85%. Overall three stars here. Focus aimed to create buzz among sophisticated audiences with a sneak at Sundance and a play at Tribeca. Anecdotally, Tully has a great twist, and if you enjoyed Reitman-Cody and Theron’s Young Adult, it’s right in that neighborhood.
Dean Devlin’s self-distributed Bad Samaritan is calling 10th place for the weekend with $1.76M, through rivals believe that by tomorrow, Universal’s Blockers will take the rank over. A very low 52% overall positive score on PostTrak with a (gulp!) 1 1/2 stars and a 20% definite recommend for Bad Samaritan. Eighty percent of the audience were over 25, with a 51/49 female-to-male split. Dean Devlin was attracted to the script, as it reminded him of older Brian DePalma movies. However, moviegoers aren’t taking to this. Note, Devlin’s Electric Entertainment self-distributed and marketed this movie. It’s their first time in this micro-budget world, which Blumhouse has been working within over the last few years with BH Tilt, and has seen some high with such films as the Kevin Bacon-Matt Walsh The Darkness ($10.75M).
Magnolia/Participant Media’s RBG is doing great, with an estimated $16.4K per theater at 34 locations and an estimated $560K start.
Studio-reported figures as of Sunday AM:
Industry estimates for the weekend of May 4-6 as of Saturday AM:
1st Update, 7:59AM: Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War is ending its first week with $338.3M after continuing to be the top film yesterday with $15.5M, -8% from Wednesday. It’s invincible at No. 1 in its second weekend, and will continue to be until Fox’s Deadpool 2 arrives on May 18.
Many aren’t expecting Infinity War to top Force Awakens for the best second weekend ever (that pic made $149.2M). However, it has a shot at beating Black Panther ($111.7M) for the No. 2 spot on that list. Earlier week projections for Infinity War‘s weekend 2 were between $100M-$125M.
None of Disney’s major studio rivals had the audacity to compete against Infinity War in its second weekend with an ultra wide release (2,000-plus). That left others to counter-program, and Lionsgate/Pantelion/MGM has Overboard, which is squarely targeting Hispanic moviegoers and fans of Mexican star Eugenio Derbez. The pic made $675K in previews last night, a figure that bests the $450K previews made by Derbez’s previous comedy a year ago, How to Be a Latin Lover. A remake of the ’80s Goldie Hawn-Kurt Russell movie, Overboard stands to make between $12M-$14M this weekend, potentially exceeding Lover‘s $12.2M opening. The comedy, which stars Anna Faris, is booked at 1,623 locations. Critics can’t stand it at 28% Rotten. On the other hand, audiences like it, giving it a PostTrak 83% positive score.
Focus Features is releasing Tully in roughly 1,300 screens. The Jason Reitman pic has 90% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and is expected to draw $3M-$4M.
Dean Devlin is self-distributing his crime pic Bad Samaritan via his Electric Entertainment in 2,007 locations. The movie is poised to make $2M per tracking. Electric fully financed and covered P&A.