‘Black Panther’ To Wave Off ‘Death Wish’ & Eat ‘Red Sparrow’ – Box Office Preview

Moviegoers will continue to be transfixed by Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther in its third weekend shelling out between $61M-$67M. 

The Ryan Coogler-directed feature will easily stand tall over newcomers 20th Century Fox/Chernin Entertainment’s Red Sparrow and MGM’s Eli Roth reimagination of the 1974 classic Death Wish. 

Black Panther has continually been one about breaking records, and just as analysts estimate a certain level for the comic book adaptation, it sails past them. While too soon to tell, should Black Panther beat this industry range with $68.5M+, it could own the second best third weekend ever, beating Avatar, and ranking under Star Wars: Force Awakens ($90.2M).

In addition, Black Panther is bound to reach $500M by Sunday, a feat accomplished in 17 days, and that would tie with Jurassic World as the third fastest title to that point after Star Wars: Last Jedi (16 days) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens (10 days).

Given Black Panther‘s dominance in the marketplace both MGM and Fox are projecting mid-teens, possibly higher for their titles. Those are safe bets considering that two well-reviewed movies last weekend, Paramount’s Annihilation and New Line/Warner Bros.’ Game Night didn’t overperform their respective tracking ranges of $10M-$12M and mid-teens to $20M.

On the high-end of ranges, tracking services believe Red Sparrow could go to $20M-$24M, and Death Wish to potentially $20M, but, again, Black Panther‘s big footing in the marketplace coupled with each pic’s qualities weigh down on these ambitions.

Red Sparrow is an R-rated spy thriller completely sold on Jennifer Lawrence. Her Hunger Games fans have aged up, making it easier for them to buy tickets, plus an added bonus for them is that the movie marks a reteam between the actress and her Catching Fire and Mockingjay director Francis Lawrence. Based on the Jason Matthews novel, Red Sparrow follows a Russian ballerina who is recruited by the country’s intelligence service to become part of their female, seductress killing machine corps. Fox moved Red Sparrow out of the fall away from Lawrence’s gonzo thriller mother!. That movie opened to $7.5M, and prior to that Lawrence’s PG-13 pics Passengers opened to $14.9M 3-day/$22.1M 5-day and Joy to $17M. Red Sparrow carries a net production cost of $69M with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 61% fresh off of 56 reviews. Pic will be in play at 3,050 theaters. Previews start tomorrow at 7PM.

Death Wish is MGM’s first self-distributed title in a while, complete with roaring Lion logo and credits. eOne is handling Canada with this $30M production booked at 2,750 locations with Thursday previews at 7PM counting 2,000 locations. It’s a genre change-up for Roth who is arguably America’s Dario Argento when it comes to horror. It’s also been a while since star Bruce Willis was last seen in an action pic (In 2014 he had Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, and in 2013 he had three: A Good Day to Die Hard, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, and Red 2). Updated from the Brian Garfield novel, Willis stars as Dr. Paul Kersey, a surgeon who only sees the aftermath of his city’s violence as it’s rushed into his ER – until his wife (Elisabeth Shue) and college-age daughter (Camila Morrone) are viciously attacked in their suburban home. In a city overloaded with crimes, Paul’s hunts against his family’s assailants to deliver justice grabs the media’s attention, and the city starts to wonder if he’s a grim reaper or guardian angel. Pic is produced by Roger Birnbaum and written by Joe Carnahan.

Willis has been showing up at advance fan screenings of Death Wish:

https://twitter.com/DeathWishMovie/status/968667253817335808/photo/1

Also with the Oscars this Sunday, moviegoers will make their way to all nominees that are still on the big screen including The Shape of Water (13 noms), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (7), Darkest Hour (6), Phantom Thread (6), Lady Bird (5), Call Me By Your Name (4), I, Tonya (3), and The Post (2).