How hyper-aggressive is the current box office marketplace? It’s so aggressive, we’re running box office curtain raisers on Tuesday. Disney is releasing its first Pixar film, Inside Out, since June 2013’s Monsters University, and while that title might have sounded like it would clearly be the No. 1 champ this weekend on paper, no one expected Universal’s dinosaur fourthquel Jurassic World to eat Disney’s lunch.
Industry estimates peg Jurassic World to hold with a decline of 55-62% in its second frame putting its FSS at $80-94M. The wide range takes into account the swing factor of those moviegoers who might venture to see Inside Out. No question about it, Jurassic World will beat Inside Out, which is being forecasted at $60M-$65M at 3,946 theaters. 3,100 hubs will be 3D and there will also be some heft from a handful of Imax. Inside Out follows the adventures of the various emotions — voiced by Amy Poehler, Mindy Kaling, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black and Bill Hader — in a young girl’s head as they aim to keep her stable. Even with the dinos knocking some happiness out of Inside Out — c’mon that’s a solid Pixar bow. It’s not in the record echelon of Toy Story 3 ($110.3M), but it’s in the realm of previous summer pleasers WALL-E ($63M opening) and Up ($65M opening). Disney started the word-of-mouth chatter at CinemaCon in April when they unveiled Inside Out to the press and exhibs where it was warmly received. The studio carried Inside Out over to the Cannes Film Festival where it played out of competition and nabbed a respectable 10-minute standing ovation at the Palais.
Inside Out actually kicks off
tomorrow night tonight at 7pm with a special Fathom event in 661 venues. It’s just one showtime, but it will include a 20 minute behind-the-scenes doc, the short Lava, the feature film and a post live Q&A with Poehler and co-director Pete Doctor. Thursday, Inside Out blasts off in previews at 7PM.
Open Road’s Dope about a scholarly African American boy’s survival in the tough neighborhoods of Inglewood, CA also played at Cannes as the closing film of Directors’ Fortnight. Directed by Rick Famuyiwa, Dope was acquired at Sundance after an intense bidding war which resulted in Open Road and Sony shelling out $7M with a $15M P&A guarantee. Open Road has domestic, Sony has foreign. Dope should gross anywhere from $6.5M-$8M on 2,002 screens.
Also expanding from 573 playdates to an estimated 788 is Roadside Attractions’ Brian Wilson biopic Love & Mercy.