FRIDAY UPDATE: Continuing a downward trend versus 2021, Chinese New Year box office in 2022 is off about 23% across the first four days of the important moviegoing period. However, it is above the pre-pandemic holiday in 2019 by 3%. In total thus far, movies on offer during Lunar New Year 2022 have amassed an estimated RMB 4.37B ($687M), according to ticketing platform Maoyan, and led by The Battle At Lake Changjin II (fka Water Gate Bridge) with RMB 1.91B ($300.2M) through Friday.
Friday’s overall haul for all films was off about 12% compared to Thursday — perhaps partly explained by the kick-off of the Winter Olympics in Beijing whose opening ceremony was televised in the evening local time. We understand there are also about 15%-20% of cinema closures throughout the market owing to Covid flare-ups.
The Battle At Lake Changjin II dipped 18% from Thursday to Friday, while the second-biggest release of the session, Too Cool To Kill, was essentially flat and has grossed RMB 925.8M ($145.5M) through Friday.
As we’ve previously noted, and as often happens with Chinese New Year titles, surprises are common. There is some thinking that the Battle sequel, despite having a better social score, simply released too closely in the wake of its predecessor which is China’s biggest local movie of all time. We also hear there has been some dynamic ticketing pricing going on which may shift over the weekend.
More to come…
WEDNESDAY UPDATE: After two days of the typically lucrative Chinese New Year box office frame, receipts are down 20% versus 2021 in the home market. Lead title, The Battle At Lake Changjin II (aka Water Gate Bridge), has grossed RMB 1.07B ($168M) through Wednesday, dropping 32% from opening day. It still has a 9.6 rating on Maoyan, but the ticketing platform has lowered its final projection for the film to RMB 4.12B ($648M) whereas it had it higher coming into the frame.
There are several factors that may be contributing to the downturn so far this year versus last. In 2021 there was an exceptional pent-up demand for CNY titles after a long delay. But, if we turn back to 2019, the first two days of the holiday this year are essentially even.
As often happens during this period, a film other than the most touted can surprise. Comedy Too Cool To Kill, which WellGo USA releases in North America on February 18, is in second place with RMB 420.5M ($66.1M) through Wednesday.
The rest of the Top Five pack includes Only Fools Rush In at RMB 329.3M ($51.8M), Boonie Bears: Back To Earth with RMB 213.2M (33.5M) and Nice View at RMB 275.6M ($43.3M). Zhang Yimou’s Snipers has grossed RMB 78.6M ($12.4M) through Wednesday; he will have another showcase on Friday as the director of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.
It remains to be seen if the Olympics has an impact on box office.
More updates to come…
PREVIOUS, TUESDAY: The Battle At Lake Changjin II (aka Water Gate Bridge) led the Chinese New Year box office on day one today, coming in at an estimated RMB 657.6M ($103.4M). While that’s certainly an enviable single-market one-day score — and is the second-biggest CNY opening day ever — it’s about 35% below the record-breaking debut day of last year’s CNY release Detective Chinatown 3. What’s more, across all movies today, the total was down 12% to RMB 1.49B from RMB 1.69B last year, per Maoyan estimates.
There was indeed pent-up demand when CNY movies began rolling out in 2021, following the Covid-induced cancellation of the lucrative period the year prior which also forced Detective Chinatown 3 to wait a year before release — and that may help explain the drop this time around. It’s also worth recalling that the original Battle At Lake Changjin, which is China’s highest-grossing local title ever, opened just four months ago and ran for a very long time, meaning there’s not been much breathing room since (nor have there been any major Hollywood distractions).
The Battle At Lake Changjin II has a higher social score (for now) than its predecessor, at 9.6 vs 9.5 on Maoyan, but is lower with critics at 7.2 vs 7.4 on Douban. Maoyan currently predicts the sequel will wind up at a total RMB 4.88M ($767M), which is about 15% off the first Battle At Lake Changjin.
IMAX had its second-highest grossing opening day of CNY with $7M across three titles, including $6.7M from Battle At Lake Changjin II which is 6.6% of the overall total from 1% of screens nationwide. This is the second-biggest IMAX box office day ever for a local Chinese local.
As for other titles debuting today, they follow the expected order that we laid out yesterday. Han Han’s Only Fools Rush In landed No. 2 with RMB 234M ($36.8M) and a 9.1 score from Maoyan. It’s followed by comedy Too Cool To Kill at RMB 218.6M ($34.4M) with a 9.2 and uplifting drama Nice View at RMB 189.2M ($29.7M) and a strong 9.5 from Maoyan.
Pre-sales for Wednesday show The Battle At Lake Changjin II in the lead, followed by Too Cool To Kill, Only Fools Rush In, animated kids pic Boonie Bears: Back To Earth and Nice View.
History has shown that it can be difficult to draw conclusions from the first day of Chinese New Year, and it will be interesting to watch whether the Winter Olympics, which kick off on Friday, have an impact on the full week-long holiday. We’ll continue to update.
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