Because of the slow and disjointed rollout of vaccinations, the Covid-19 pandemic could last seven more years if distribution continues at its current rate.
A gloomy calculation from Bloomberg shows it could take most of a decade using two-dose vaccines for herd immunity to be reached. Previous calculations by White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci claimed 70-85 percent of the population will need the vaccine in order to achieve herd immunity.
Currently, the US is on track for that mark to be reached by 2022. But serious distribution complications and lack of vaccines in other countries are far from that figure.
Bloomberg says Western and wealthier countries are reaching 75% coverage, but others are far behind. Israel will hit 75% coverage by spring. But Portugal could take four years to reach that mark, China seven year, and Canada almost ten years at the current distribution pace.
The media outlet admits that its calculations are based on current conditions and could adjust as distribution lines improve. Canada, for one example, has faced delays in shipments, but has huge backorders for supplies that could speed up its time line.
Bloomberg also noted production is just beginning in manufacturing hubs, and only a third of countries have vaccine campaigns.
The calculations are based on two doses for full vaccination. Johnson & Johnson is rolling out a one-dose vaccine, which can cut times.