The permutations and stats have been mind-boggling for hours. Here’s an eye-opening prediction just dropped from high-profile statistician and prognosticator Nate Silver: Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in play to get the top two popular vote totals in U.S. history, surpassing Obama in 2008.
Silver said on Twitter: “It probably works out to Biden getting 52-ish percent of the popular vote on a turnout of 155 million-ish votes, which would be around 80 million. Trump might get say 73-75 million. Likely the top two popular vote totals in U.S. history, both surpassing Obama ’08”.
It probably works out to Biden getting 52-ish percent of the popular vote on a turnout of 155 million-ish votes, which would be around 80 million. Trump might get say 73-75 million. Likely the top two popular vote totals in US history, both surpassing Obama '08.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
Since Silver tweeted, reports are coming in that Biden has now surpassed Obama’s 2008 total, breaking the record for most votes ever by a candidate at a U.S. presidential election.
BREAKING: Joe Biden has surpassed Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote total, breaking the record for most votes ever received by a candidate at a US Presidential Election.
— US Politics Polls (@USPoliticsPoll) November 4, 2020
Looks like the highest turnout election since universal suffrage: projected at around 67%. #2020Election
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 4, 2020
There’s a long way to go before there’s clarity and winning the popular vote doesn’t translate to automatic victory, but turnout has been tracking sky high and this would be a remarkable expression of agency from U.S. citizens. Whichever way you vote, passions are running high on both sides.
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