SATURDAY AM UPDATE: While it’s flailing domestically and certainly struggling abroad, Disney/Fox’s Dark Phoenix had a $15.2M Friday in China, rising about 26% over Thursday and on the first full day of the Dragon Boat Festival. The cume there through yesterday is estimated at roughly $28M with a solid No. 1 showing. However, a drop is expected in today’s play (as well as on Sunday) and the full weekend is looking at a possible $45M-$50M, depending on the holds.
That figure would be better than the unadjusted debut of Days Of Future Past, but down on Apocalypse, and roughly on par with Logan. Still, each of those had 3-day openings whereas Dark Phoenix is in a 4-day bow that includes a holiday. Social scores on the film are low at 7.7 on Maoyan and 6 on Douban. Maoyan is currently predicting a $72.4M (RMB 500.1M) final in China, not a good look for this bird.
(According to local China reporting, Godzilla: King Of The Monsters had a sizable jump on Friday, up about 160% from Thursday as it approaches $100M in the second frame.)
Dark Phoenix’s full international box office cume through Thursday, and not including China’s Friday, was roughly $28M. Also not included in that running total is Korea‘s Friday where the movie made 1B won ($846K) for a local cume of just $3.64M through yesterday. It’s in 3rd place behind the powerful continued performances of Parasite and Aladdin, per Kobiz.
The full launch session on the poorly reviewed Dark Phoenix will come in at the low end of pre-weekend projections, possibly around $115M for all offshore markets save Japan and Indonesia where it is still to bow in the coming weeks. That’s down on both Days Of Future Past ($148M in like-for-like markets at today’s rates) and Apocalypse ($134M).
Mexico was the key major to begin play on Friday with numbers to come.
PREVIOUS, THURSDAY: Disney/Fox’s Dark Phoenix has begun rollout in some overseas markets as it looks, and is expected, to dominate offshore this weekend. Early estimates out of China put the start there at over $12M on Thursday ($13M+ including sneaks) which kicked off the Dragon Boat holiday locally. If the movie holds audience attention over the next few days, this portends a $50M+ opening for the full weekend.
However, there may be darker times ahead. The Maoyan score is a 7.7, lower than hoped for and potentially posing issues throughout this weekend which has two local movies also vying for ticket buyers. Maoyan is also reporting slightly different numbers compared to what we’ve heard from other sources. It has $15.8M for Dark Phoenix through today including limited Wednesday previews.
In what is the last Fox/Marvel X-Men movie before Disney’s MCU likely reboots the mutant hero franchise, Dark Phoenix will touch down in all major markets, save Japan and Indonesia, through Friday. Our early low-end range on the movie was $120M for international, and depending on China, it could ultimately skew lower.
We don’t have all of the numbers for the offshore markets that opened through today, but the ones we are privy to show Dark Phoenix as No. 1 in eight out of 11, mostly lower than the last X-Men movie, Apocalypse. That film was a critical disappointment domestically at 47% splat on Rotten Tomatoes while Dark Phoenix is carrying a much rottener 23%.
Overseas, the key markets we have intel on include Korea where the cume is about $2.8M through Thursday after getting a nice bump during today’s Memorial Day holiday. Still, it was No. 3 for the day while local juggernaut Parasite is still tops (no one expects to beat that Palme d’Or winner) and Aladdin jumped into the No. 2 slot. Dark Phoenix is currently tracking below Apocalypse in that market.
In France, despite a No. 1 bow on Wednesday, Dark Phoenix is about 30% off of Apocalypse. In the UK, which likewise started Wednesday, it’s down by 50% compared to the last installment. As we’ve noted the past two weeks, the UK is incredibly competitive right now with Aladdin, Rocketman, The Secret Life Of Pets 2 and even Godzilla: King Of The Monsters all vying for attention. We’ll see how this plays out over the weekend.
We hear that some of the Asia Pacific markets are more tuned in to Jean Grey where there are No. 1 openings in the Philippines and Singapore. In the former, Dark Phoenix launched 150% over Logan as well as 120% ahead of the first Deadpool and 30% over X-Men: Days Of Future Past. Singapore’s first day is 19% off of Apocalypse.
Also opening today among the majors are Brazil, Germany, Russia and Australia. We’ll follow up throughout the weekend.
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