WEDNESDAY UPDATE, writethru: Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame has a stranglehold on China as it continues to surge in early rollout there. After heating up a new midnight milestone worth RMB 189M ($28.2M) on Tuesday, today’s tallies just keep climbing. As of this evening locally, Wednesday estimates are coming in at RMB 530M ($79M) for an opening day of RMB 719M ($107.2M), including midnights. The debut on the Anthony Russo- and Joe Russo-helmed Endgame sets a new all-time record in the market, eclipsing previous champ Monster Hunt 2 (RMB 547M), which did not have midnights but bowed during Chinese New Year 2018, as well as The Fate Of The Furious‘ RMB 480M and Avengers: Infinity War’s RMB 447M (each of the latter two have midnights included).
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Projections in the Middle Kingdom are running equally wild with many watchers upping their initial $250M-$280M launch weekend estimates above the high end of that range and into the $300Ms. Word of mouth is as strong as Thanos with a 9.1 on reviews aggregator Douban and a 9.3 on Maoyan. These are among the best scores ever for an MCU movie in the superhero-loving market (the previous top Maoyan scorers were Guardians Of The Galaxy and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, both at 9.2).
There has been some caution on the China debut given the five-day opening frame has only one non-work/non-school day. Based on that, and the buzz surrounding this series-ender, Saturday should top today’s figures while the other days are expected to play lower. Next week, however, includes holidays from May 1-4.
Maoyan, which is reporting attendance is 55% male and 45% female in the Tier 1 cities, is now projecting an RMB 3.58B ($533M) finish for Endgame, having increased from its earlier RMB 3.5B estimate. That would make it the highest-grossing Hollywood movie ever in China as well as the 4th biggest ever behind local pics Wolf Warrior 2, The Wandering Earth and Operation Red Sea.
In other early play, Korea‘s first day estimate is $8.39M with over 97% of the market on Wednesday. In France, the 2PM screenings in Paris and the suburbs logged the 3rd best launch ever with over 48K admissions on 100 screens. Also bowing today are Germany, Italy, Australia and several South East Asia markets. We will continue to update.
PREVIOUS, TUESDAY: China is at the endgame now as Avengers: Endgame is ready to rumble with midnight screenings just kicking off. The estimated presale total is a record-shattering $26.8M (RMB 180M). Showings at 3AM and 6AM are also included in the midnights tally which should see a slight increase once the dust settles. The start tonight local time tops all previous titles — including The Fate Of The Furious‘ $9.1M and Infinity War’s $8.9M midnights, both at unadjusted rates.
Overall China presales on Disney/Marvel’s massively anticipated Endgame are at an estimated $114.5M (RMB 770M) after blasting off to unprecedented levels on April 12. This is nearly double Infinity War‘s $65M and is also far and away a new record. Infinity War’s Middle Kingdom presales repped about 35% of its opening weekend. If we comp that to the advance bookings on Endgame, it points to a $325M opening frame for this 22nd MCU entry. But as we noted yesterday, this is a tricky comp since it can’t be assumed that the advance ticket buyers on Endgame didn’t also see Infinity War during its first weekend, just without pre-buying.
Grounded projections for China’s five-day opening (which includes a Sunday workday and only one day where work and school are not a factor) have been in the range of $250M-$280M. As of this evening, however, even some of the cooler heads are revising upwards within that bracket. We will have a much better indication of which way the Middle Kingdom is swinging once we get a look at the full Wednesday play tomorrow.
Also important will be the Moayan, Tiao Piao Piao and Douban scores which won’t be out until credits roll on the first screenings tonight locally.
An overall $680M bow at the international box office this weekend is what our sources have been estimating, with global prognostications in the $940M-$950M range. As my colleague Anthony D’Alessandro and I reported yesterday, if Endgame is going to hit an historic $1B worldwide weekend opening, what would need to happen is that China or the U.S. (or both) would need to overperform. Again, more becomes clear as markets open in the coming days.
Endgame, which will have further midnights in other offshore markets tonight, begins rollout in earnest tomorrow in such hubs as China, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. Thursday notably adds the UK and Brazil with Friday bringing Japan and Mexico online. The film will be in play in all global markets this weekend with the exception of Russia which goes April 29.
We will have ongoing updates throughout.
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