EXCLUSIVE: With an estimated global opening weekend on course for $1.1 billion, Disney Avengers: Endgame will make what most successful superhero movies earn in a theatrical lifetime. At this level, film finance experts tell Deadline that the Anthony and Joe Russo-directed sequel will near cash breakeven tomorrow on Sunday, which is unheard of for a major studio tentpole during its opening weekend. Last year, the duo’s Avengers: Infinity War clicked into profitability after ten days.
While it’s still early, our sources believe that a final worldwide endgame well north of $2B, closer to $2.5B for Endgame isn’t out of the question. Only four films have cleared that mark: Avatar ($2.79B), Titanic ($2.19B), Star Wars: Force Awakens ($2.07B), and Infinity War ($2.05B). Endgame‘s domestic B.O. is poised to lie at greater than $750M.
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At the upper end of Endgame‘s final B.O. range, a $600M-$650M profit is within the realm of possibility off the sequel’s estimated $356M net negative costs and a global $150M P&A spend. Infinity War off combined theatrical expenses of $475M plus ancillary costs saw a half billion profit and won Deadline’s Profit Tournament. Talent participations and residuals amounted to a combined $170M on Infinity War per our finance insiders, and we hear they will increase slightly on Endgame. Star Wars: The Force Awakens walked away with $780.1M in profit after total theatrical and ancillary revenues of $1.55B and total costs of $776.6M.
This weekend, Endgame‘s domestic start is estimated between $350M-$356M and its overseas B.O. close to $800M. Of that latter figure, $300M-plus is from China (which delivers a 25% to 27% rental between $75M-$81M).
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