Four films will battle this Thanksgiving, but two will rule a majority of the 5-day stretch’s ticket sales with Disney’s Ralph Breaks the Internet hitting tracking today with a $65M Wednesday through Sunday haul while MGM’s Creed II will punch $48M over the same time period.
Then there’s Lionsgate’s action-packed version of Robin Hood from producer Leonardo DiCaprio is looking to do $17M, while Universal’s Green Book between its Wednesday through Sunday play is in the high single digits.
Again, these are early projections, as the movies hit tracking today, so some may swell in the weeks to come, and some may not.
Ralph 2 is currently tracking the best with younger females, but it’s strong across the board we hear. The first Wreck-It-Ralph opening six years ago during the first weekend in November and made $49M in 3-days, $56.7M in five and ended its run at $189.4M domestic, $471.2M WW.
Creed II is through the roof with African Americans, Hispanics followed by Caucasians. Males are definitely there, but it’s showing itself to be an event pic across all quads. Creed II‘s anticipated haul is poised to best the Ryan Coogler-directed 2015 installment which grossed $42.1M over the Thanksgiving period. In the history of the Rocky canon, the boxing champ movies —Rocky, Rocky IV and V have played the late November side of the calendar. This time the son of Apollo Creed, Adonis (Michael B. Jordan), fights against Viktor Drago, the son of former Rocky Balboa foe Ivan Drago.
This is par for the course for there to be a lot of competition during the five-day stretch. Ironically, Black Friday is always a huge day at the box office as everyone works in shopping and moviegoing. Just like they’ve owned the first weekend in May for the most part with a Marvel movie, Disney has made a tradition in recent years of ruling the Thanksgiving stretch. Frozen is the record grosser for them and for the holiday period with a 5-day of $93.5M, followed by Moana ($82M), Toy Story 2 ($80.1M) and Coco ($72.9M).
This studio is certainly going to need a big holiday hit after the $120M opulent The Nutcracker and the Four Realms this weekend which some tracking services just lowered to a $20M start. Overseas, including China, is only expected to bring in $30M and critics are tap dancing on the film at 31% Rotten; another anticipated misfire for the studio this year after Wrinkle in Time and Solo: A Star Wars Story . But let’s not forget they’re leading all studios with $2.8 billion at the domestic box office year to date, fueled by Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, Incredibles 2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp.
The last live-action big studio (serious, not comical) versions of Robin Hood were Ridley Scott’s 2010 take from Universal and Kevin Reynolds’ Kevin Costner 1991 summer pic. Scott’s version starring Russell Crowe opened on May 14 during its year to $36M and ended its domestic at $105.2M, $321.7M WW. The Costner Morgan Creek film, released by Warner Bros., opened to $25.6M (unadjusted for inflation), and grossed $165.5M in U.S./Canada, $390.4M WW.
Universal is trying to get generate buzz for its awards season contender Green Book prior to the holiday and going early with the movie on Nov. 16 in a limited 20 city run.