This is the moment when insiders try to guess whether there’ll be a “surprise movie” of the awards season — the film that comes in late but builds instant enthusiasm, as we discuss in the latest edition of The Bart & Fleming Podcast.

Some guess Roma, but it’s in Spanish; others guess The Favourite, but it’s as mean-spirited as it is witty; and some look to Vice, but it’s very political.

If there’s no late surprise, voters may look back on Black Panther, which opened long before the award fervor started.

Listen to the conversation here: