Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga have taken the stage in 31 overseas markets through Friday, belting out a $6M running cume at the international box office. This portends a $15M+ opening weekend for Warner Bros’ A Star Is Born in what reps just 45% of the offshore footprint. Majors still to come include musical-loving markets like Korea and Japan. Factoring in domestic, the showstopper is looking at a worldwide debut frame of around $60M.
With stellar reviews and word of mouth, plus that global Gaga wattage, A Star Is Born had its best bow in the UK with $1M on 809 screens Friday to rank No. 3 (Venom is leading in the hubs where it’s released which is normal given the rush-out nature of superhero movies and the legginess of musicals and dramas that really strike a chord). The comps that WB is using on Star Is Born include the Cooper-fronted Silver Linings Playbook whose Friday score was nearly tripled in the UK. ASIB also came in 88% bigger than last year’s Best Picture Oscar winner The Shape Of Water, 8% ahead of the female-skewing Ocean’s 8 and 5% over Cooper’s American Hustle. Including sneaks, the UK cume through Friday is $2.4M.
France tuned into the update/remake that Cooper directs, co-wrote and produced with a Day One Wednesday of $376K and over 46K admissions nationwide on 338 screens. The movie topped opening day numbers for American Hustle (+35%), Silver Linings Playbook (+28%), Shape Of Water (+12%) and were on par with Ocean’s 8. Playing at No. 2 behind a local comedy sequel, the heartbreaker is at $903K through Friday with the best per screen admissions in the market. Cooper was at the Paris premiere on Monday, and charmed local press with his French language skills.
Germany‘s day one was $580K, including sneaks. On 460 screens, Star Is Born ranks No. 3 and topped the above comps, as well as exceeding La La Land‘s first day by 13%. The running cume is $960K. Russia also bowed with $259K over two days on 1,077 screens.
A Star Is Born is destined for a strong and long ride after leaping into the limelight, and to deafening response, at the Venice Film Festival in late August. Key upcoming dates throughout October include Korea on the 9th, then Italy, Brazil and Mexico the 11th and 12th, and Australia on the 18th. China is still to be determined, and Japan goes December 21.
The staggered pattern here made the opening estimate difficult to assess, but most sources saw it in the $15M-$20M range and that’s where it should land.
Musical global comps to look at for A Star Is Born overall include The Greatest Showman, whose theatrical business was a real sostenuto as it legged out over weeks and weeks to $435M worldwide ($260.6M internationally). The biggest markets there were the UK, Japan and Australia. La La Land ultimately took $295M from overseas, led by the UK and Japan, but also hitting high notes in China and Korea. Of Les Misérables’ $442M global haul, $293M came from offshore. The pattern here was similar with the UK, Japan and Korea the top hubs.
We’ll have a full weekend report on Sunday.