After clearing approximately $420M abroad to date, including a whopping estimated $155M in China, Universal/Legendary’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom finally docks in the U.S. and Canada where estimates are ranging from $135M up to potentially $150M at 4,450 theaters.
While some box office reporters out there will try to make a Cro-magnon-like assessment and say that Fallen Kingdom pales in its domestic opening when compared to the first 2015 reboot’s once-upon-a-time $208.8M record debut (now the fourth best ever after Avengers: Infinity War, Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi), the fact of the matter is that this sequel, which purportedly costs $170M before P&A (we’re hearing it’s closer to $187M net), is already in good shape financially having played two weekends abroad, and headed to $600M worldwide by Sunday after launches in 17 territories including Australia, Mexico and Brazil. The World Cup per Nancy Tartaglione is only expected to ding Friday’s take in Brazil, and hopefully nothing more.
Not every critic has filed their Fallen Kingdom review with 115 logged on Rotten Tomatoes for a 59% Rotten score. The first Jurassic World was largely critic-proof when you consider it only earned a 71% Fresh from 314 reviews. Hopefully that RT score raises and won’t become a monkey wrench to turnstiles this weekend. Jurassic World reaped the opportunity at the B.O. from being a stellar reboot of a beloved classic whose previous installment was 14 years prior with 2001’s Jurassic World III.
The sequel, directed this time by The Impossible director J.A. Bayona, remains unopposed by any fresh wide release competition, however, will share the marketplace with the second frame of Disney/Pixar’s Incredibles 2 which looks to ease 45%-50% for $91M-$100M. Stateside ultimate finish for Incredibles 2 looks to be between $550M-$600M.
It’s the second time that the dinosaurs have shared the top of the box office chart with a Pixar movie: During Jurassic World‘s second weekend in June 2015, Pixar’s Inside Out opened taking second place, $90.4M to the Dinos’ $106.6M. This year, Pixar went first. Still, exhibition is most thankful for both pics in the June market, which are keeping this year’s $5.5 billion box office ahead of last year’s Jan.-mid-June frame by 6%.
Showtimes start at 7PM on Thursday, with AMC locations hosting a double Jurassic World feature starting at 3PM. As is standard by Uni marketing standards, they’ve roared this latest sequel around the world in a promo campaign valued at $185M, more than double the 2015 film. Pic will play in 3D, Imax and premium large format.
Among pics in their second weekend of release, New Line’s comedy Tag is expected to decline 55% for $6.7M while Sony’s Superfly will be in further free fall. Through four-days Tag has collected $16.8M.
There are a number of festival features finally making their way to the big screen. Magnolia’s western Damsel starring Robert Pattinson and Mia Wasikowska, which premiered at Sundance, will play three screens, at the NY IFC Center, Landmark at 57 West and LA’s Nuart. IFC has the Sundance premiere The Catcher Was a Spy about Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians catcher Moe Berg (Paul Rudd) who led a double-life-career. Pic will play in NY and LA. Sony Pictures Classics has Shana Feste’s Boundaries in five NY and LA locations. Pic world premiered at SXSW festival and stars Vera Farmiga as a daughter who takes her carefree, estranged, pot-dealing father (Christopher Plummer) on a road trip after he is kicked out of a nursing home.