After the summer box office ratcheted down following the $125.5M opening of Fox’s Deadpool 2, Disney is looking to make up for any shortfall created by its Memorial Day weekend fumble Solo: A Star Wars Story with the release of Pixar’s Incredibles 2, which is eyeing between $135M-$150M this weekend at 4,400 theaters.
Some tracking services have the sequel around $125M, but the confidence out there from rivals is that Incredibles 2 could feasibly beat Finding Dory‘s $135M opening, which is by all accounts, the current domestic record for an animated pic’s opening.
With ComScore counting summer’s start as of the first weekend in May, we currently count $1.24 billion season to date, which is even with the same period last year, which turned out to be one of the worst summers in 11 years with $3.97B. In regards to marquee big-budget animation competition from a rival such as Illumination, Incredibles 2 has zero competition so look for its legs to be huge. Finding Dory turned around a 3.6x multiple for $486.2M stateside, while Toy Story 3 with a $110M start did a 3.76x for $415M.
Like Dory, Incredibles 2 has an enormous amount of legacy goodwill from fans, and its second installment has been 14 years in the waiting. It’s another execution by Pixar in mining news fans, and pulling in die hards in a family play that ranges from ages 2 to 80. Incredibles is one of those Pixar brands that appeals to not just kids, but to adults’ sophisticated sense of humor and sensibilities, unlike Cars which largely plays younger. Rotten Tomatoes for Incredibles 2 is currently at 97% fresh.
The first Incredibles launched during the first weekend of November in 2004, minting $70.5M and making a household name out of director Brad Bird, and composer Michael Giacchino. Pic ended its run at $261.4M domestic, $633M worldwide.
Incredibles 2‘s theater count is comprised of 400 Imax screens, 650+ Premium Large Format screens, 3,000+ 3D locations, and 210 D-Box screens. A special double feature of The Incredibles and Incredibles 2 will play exclusively in Imax starting tomorrow starting at 6pm, with regular previews beginning Thursday at 5pm. The Pixar short film Bao, directed by Domee Shi, is playing in front of Incredibles 2.
Despite the kung-fu grip that Incredibles 2 will have on the marketplace this weekend, other studios have dared to appeal to other demos, specifically Sony which is going after African American audiences with its reboot of Director X’s Superfly and New Line/Warner Bros. with their R-rated guy comedy Tag.
Tag, which is based on Russell Adams’ Wall Street Journal story about a group of grown men who still engage in a game of ‘You’re It’ is expected to file in the $12M-$16M range. Pic stars Jeremy Renner, Ed Helms, Jon Hamm, Jake Johnson, and Isla Fisher and reps the feature directorial debut of Jeff Tomsic whose credits include directing and being an EP on the Comedy Central series Idiotsitter. Tag will preview in over 2,900 locations on Thursday at 7PM and expand to 3,382 theaters on Friday. New Line budgets their comedies in the upper $20M range before P&A. Rotten Tomatoes hasn’t revealed their score yet.
Sony is getting a leg up on their Silver Pictures release Superfly tomorrow sans previews tonight. They claim it cost a reported $16M before P&A. Tracking has a $7M-$12M five-day opening spread on this pic which could file in the upper part of that range. Rotten Tomatoes at 67% is better than Sony’s previous African American feature Proud Mary which received a 28% Rotten score. There was an unprecedented turnaround for Superfly which began production in mid-January. The movie is grounded in music, and Atlanta serves as a character in the film as the iconic cultural center for black entertainment. Future produced and wrote the original songs for this pic. In Superfly, career criminal Youngblood Priest wants out of the Atlanta drug scene, but as he ramps up sales, one little slip up threatens to bring the whole operation down before he can make his exit. Pic stars Trevor Jackson, Jason Mitchell, Michael Kenneth Williams, Lex Scott Davis, and Jennifer Morrison and was written by Alex Tse.
Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Ocean’s 8 should ease 40-45% from its $41.6M opening for $23M-$25M. In the last four days, the Gary Ross all femme ensemble has grossed $46M and should see a pop today from discount Tuesday and older audiences.
A24’s Hereditary, which repped the NY-based distributor’s biggest opener with $13.6M, is forecasted to decline an estimated 55% with $6.1M. Pic counts $15.2M through four days.
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