In the wake of the best Memorial Day stretch since 2014 with $227.6M, the box office will now go to sleep this weekend.
While there are wide releases, many of them are counterprogramming options to the event titles out there. Disney’s Solo: A Star Wars Story will pull in a second weekend in the low $30Ms, experiencing a 60% drop (from its $84.4M FSS opening) on par with other event titles during their post Memorial Day weekends, read X-Men: Days of Future Past and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. That’s because this weekend is coming off a beefy Sunday where moviegoing was roughly equal to Saturday’s business. Even if Solo opened higher, it would still likely face a 55%-60% decline.
Even though Solo will lead all movies again this weekend, that may not be the case next weekend when Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Ocean’s 8 arrives with what tracking services see is a $30M+ debut. Yesterday, Solo made an estimated $7.3M, -61% from its Monday of $18.5M. In the U.S./Canada, analysts believe that Solo will be lucky to make it to $250M.
Hopefully Solo‘s underperformance doesn’t impact the annual B.O. pace, currently $4.8 billion, 7.6% ahead of 2017. A year ago at this time we had Warner Bros/DC’s Wonder Woman which overperformed to $103.2M turning out to be the summer’s biggest move with $412.5M stateside.
Fox’s Deadpool 2 will see more of an ease in weekend 3 than a drop, -50% from its second 3-day of $43.4M for a take around $21M. Through 12 days at the B.O. with $223.8M, the sequel is pacing 9% behind its 2016 predecessor which ended its domestic run at $363M. Already, DP2 has made north of $500M. The first DP did $783M around the world.
STXfilms has the romantic survival story Adrift starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin about a pair of lovers who sail head on into a catastrophic hurricane. She awakens to find her beau badly injured and their boat in ruins. Survival ensues. Pic is based on the book by Tami Oldham Ashcraft with Susea McGearhart. STXfilms, Lakeshore Entertainment, Huayi Brothers and Ingenious co-financed Adrift for $35M. Projections are in the teens at 2,800 locations. Lakeshore has turned out these low-budget romance pics before with Lionsgate’s The Age of Adaline which opened to $13.2M, finaled stateside at $42.6M and global of $65.7M off a $25M production cost.
Paramount has the efficiently priced Johnny Knoxville $19M R-rated comedy Action Point which the studio is expecting under $10M from at 2,000 locations. Pic follows Knoxville as a ragtag owner of a depressed and dangerous amusement park whose existence is threatened when a corporate mega park opens nearby. There’s only a handful of midnight screenings tomorrow.
BHTilt has Leigh Whannell’s comedy horror title Upgrade which isn’t expected to scare up a lot with a $3M start.
The Orchard’s team-up with MoviePass Ventures, American Animals, which was acquired out of the Sundance Film Festival, is also coming out this weekend in four locations in New York and Los Angeles. The pic will play throughout June ultimately hitting a 600 wide count.