EXCLUSIVE: Disney/Lucasfilm’s Solo: A Star Wars Story has landed on tracking and the Memorial Day release per industry projections (not Disney) are forecasting a Friday through Monday start of $170M-plus at the domestic box office.
Sources tell Deadline that Solo‘s tracking is “pretty strong” with an unaided score of 28 that’s higher than Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155M, 23 score) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146.5M, 23). Unaided awareness indicates how strong the buzz is on a title among those who are unprompted in polling and it’s a priceless stat off which studios buy their TV ads. Definite interest of 55 is higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s 53 and that latter pic opened to $117M. Males under and over 25 are the dominant demo here for Solo.
As we always report, these are estimates and we’re still three weeks away from the pic’s May 25 opening. There’s always a chance for fluctuation. Should Solo debut to $150M+ over four-days, that’s still phenomenal for a Memorial Day release considering the top two openings belong to Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($139.8M) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($126.9M). The first TV spots that dropped during and following The Super Bowl endured some criticism from fans for various reasons, however, looking at this estimates for Solo, business should be fine for this Star Wars spinoff. Every devoted fanbase is going to have their passionate criticism and as we saw with the bold moves that Star Wars: The Last Jedi took in its plot twists, that didn’t hinder ticket sales from that film from reaching $620M stateside, $1.3 billion worldwide.