Forecasts are percolating for Universal’s June 22 release Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and in regard to those figures this far out, know that they can fluctuate wildly for an event film of this size. A safe bet for the dinosaur sequel is an opening range of $130 million-$150 million, per Deadline sources.
Total awareness, unaided, and definite interest are either slightly above or in sync with the first 2015 reboot, with first choice a few points behind, but not greatly. The first Jurassic World had pre-week projections of $110M-$140M and shocked the industry when it soared to a then all-time record opening (before Disney’s Force Awakens and Last Jedi) of $208.8M. The notion was that the sampling of $100M openings is small statistically, and therefore more of a challenge to make forecasts from — which is still true.
What also clouds some analysts’ projections is when a number of event titles arrive on tracking as they’re all measured against each other, and that can throw off projections (whether they come from the studio or a rival). While Avengers: Infinity War was the huge opener everyone was expecting, Deadpool 2 filed under its low-end $130M opening projection with $125.5M (which is still great), while Solo: A Star Wars Story was well below its $130M bottom end with a $103M four-day total.
Fallen Kingdom is a sequel, so no one is expecting that shock-and-awe legacy opening the 2015 film yielded; everyone is just expecting another healthy $100M-plus opening this summer.
Fallen Kingdom gets a head start abroad before we get to savor it. Its overseas schedule is as follows:
Wednesday, June 6
Belgium, France, Germany, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Switzerland (F)
Thursday, June 7
Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Malaysia, Netherlands, Middle East, Portugal, Russia, Serbia & Montenegro, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland (G), Thailand, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates.
Friday, June 8
Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, India, Latvia, Lithuania, Mongolia, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom, Vietnam
Friday, June 15
Friday, June 22
Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, New Zealand, Paraguay, Peru, Slovakia, Trinidad, Uruguay, Ecuador, Mexico, Venezuela