TUESDAY AM UPDATE: With $909.8M at the global box office through Monday, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther has now surpassed Thor: Ragnarok, Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2, Batman Vs Superman, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Spider-Man 3 worldwide. Based on the weekend’s numbers, we saw this $900M+ milestone coming — and $1B is on the cards next weekend. The film has also crossed $400M at the international box office with $403.4M through yesterday. Overseas, the industry sees this one getting to about $600M, including what sources peg as an umtimately possible $100M-$120M in China which bows on Friday.
PREVIOUS TUESDAY, with weekend actuals: With a 3rd leading domestic weekend in a row, and as overseas turnstiles tipped towards $400M, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther grossed $899.9M globally through Sunday. With Monday’s figures included that will have pushed the Wakanda wonder past the $400M offshore and $900M worldwide milestones — we’ll have a full update on yesterday’s takings later today. The breakdown through Sunday was $501.7M in North America and $398.2M at the international box office.
The Ryan Coogler-helmed Black Panther is the 5th Marvel Cinematic Universe title to reach $900M globally, after The Avengers, Avengers: Age Of Ultron, Iron Man 3 and Captain America: Civil War. For T’Challa, the $1B worldwide box office mark lies ahead next weekend. Overseas, the industry sees this one getting to about $600M, including what sources peg as a possible $100M-$120M in China.
Domestically, Black Panther continues to play at the top end of the Marvel echelon while the best overseas comps are Doctor Strange, Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 and Thor: Ragnarok. BP is dominating each of those.
Internationally, this frame was worth $57.7M in 56 material markets. Overall abroad, holds were generally solid with a 42% decline from last weekend. While Italy and Spain have been notably soft on the Panther, he’s come up a bit in Germany versus the early dominance of Fifty Shades Freed. Elsewhere, BP is the highest-grossing movie of all time in West and East Africa; the top MCU title in the Netherlands; and has run past the lifetime of Thor 3 in Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam, demonstrating the strong appetite in South East Asia despite initial concerns.
Next weekend T’Challa takes on China and should take the win with advance ticket sales that have been tracking at the level of Spider-Man: Homecoming. That film opened to $71M last September, and finaled at $116M.
In the meantime, Operation Red Sea continues to lead the charge in the Middle Kingdom, rising to $479M through Monday, after just 18 days in release. It won the international weekend with $62.6M to top Black Panther for the second frame in a row. Overall in China, it’s still being led by its fellow New Year release, Detective Chinatown 2, which is closing in on $500M at an estimated $497.7M through Monday (more in the local-language section below the main post).
Those two films kept pretty much everyone else at bay in the Middle Kingdom, although as the only new kids offering, Sony’s Peter Rabbit had a good start at $12.7M. That helped it hop past $100M global. And, multiple Oscar nominee Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri posted a solid art-house launch of $2.4M on 972 screens.
The weekend’s major new opener, Fox/Chernin’s Jennifer Lawrence-starrer Red Sparrow grossed $26.6M in its maiden flight in 67 markets. That’s about equal to what the last Lawrence-fronted pic, mother!, did in its lifetime overseas, and is 60% of Atomic Blonde‘s full run. The movie was No. 4 internationally this weekend, No. 2 among Hollywood titles (more below).
In other Fox news, Maze Runner: The Death Cure has topped both The Scorch Trials and the original Maze Runner internationally.
Elsewhere, Universal’s Fifty Shades Freed has collared over $250M overseas as it approaches $350M worldwide. And, while Disney is going to hold off further detailed reporting on its double Oscar winner Coco until the film opens in Japan on March 16, this weekend was worth $3.3M for a $536.4M overseas cume and $745M worldwide.
The coming frame notably brings MGM/Warner Bros’ Tomb Raider to Korea and some other Asian hubs with Alicia Vikander in the kick-ass Lara Croft role. Also debuting is Disney’s A Wrinkle In Time in a soft overseas rollout that includes Spain, Russia and Mexico as the majors. And, as noted, Black Panther heads to China in what will be a closely-watched performance. T’Challa will hit 510 IMAX screens there.
Breakdowns and actuals on the films above and more have been updated below.
Directed by Francis Lawrence, 20th Century Fox/Chernin Entertainment’s Red Sparrow opened No. 1 in 10 markets including some good starts in Germany, the UK, Taiwan and Spain. The Jennifer Lawrence-starrer grossed a decent $26.6M in 67 markets, matching the lifetime of Lawrence’s mother! from last fall. It’s also about 60% of the full business done overseas by comp Atomic Blonde. Fox is offering a comp to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, an older film with better known source material, but a lesser known star. Red Sparrow is 28.3% above that movie at open, in the same markets and at today’s exchange rates.
After being led by Black Panther for the past couple of frames, Taiwan gave over to the Sparrow with $2.4M including Fox’s 5th biggest opening day of all time. The UK was the lead launch at $2.57M and No. 2, although harsh weather was a factor. Germany came in next at $2.45M for No. 2 and 15% above The Bourne Legacy. Spain had a good $2M start on 608 screens at No. 1.
The film has a B CinemaScore domestically and will likely under-deliver there with a take below $60M. It carries a net $69M production cost, which reportedly includes Lawrence’s estimated $15M-$20M paycheck. The film will have to sing for its supper overseas, but at this early stage, industry sources say it won’t break even at the current trajectory. Outside the mega Hunger Games and X-Men franchises, Lawrence’s pictures have typically grossed over $100M offshore — although awards-season momentum and co-stars have traditionally helped.
Red Sparrow has another 10 international markets to launch through May including Japan, France and Russia. It should continue to do some business with older audiences. But it will face competition from the female-led Tomb Raider beginning next weekend and as several big titles hit marquees throughout the month.
As he got ready to roar past $400M internationally and $900M globally on Monday, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther dropped 42% in the 3rd overseas session for a $57.7M take in 56 markets. The $1B mark worldwide will be met next weekend. While play has been strong in South East Asia despite early concerns on how the film would be embraced there, next weekend will be the ultimate test when China opens. We’ve been hearing advance ticket sales are on par with Spider-Man: Homecoming which is promising given that movie opened to $71M last September and went on to final with $116M.
The Wakanda crew have been on a tear domestically while overseas they’re comping to such Marvel stablemates as Doctor Strange, Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 and Thor: Ragnarok. Respectively, BP is ahead of those movies by 36%, 21% and 8%.
This week, Japan was the new play, while Russia opened wide last Monday. In Russia, BP has already crushed the lifetimes of Ant-Man and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as DC titles Justice League and Wonder Woman. As expected in Japan, BP came in behind the latest Doraemon, grossing $4.2M including previews to land 47% ahead of Ant-Man, 32% ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy and to hammer out 28% more than Thor: Ragnarok.
In Europe, the drop was 37% this session, despite some cinema closures due to Siberian-style weather. BP held No. 1 in Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Switzerland and the UK. Italy and Spain have given the Panther the cold shoulder, but Germany has seen something of a rebound after a soft start that was hampered by the dominance of Fifty Shades Freed.
In South Africa, BP is the No. 5 all-time release, and, as noted above is the highest-grossing movie ever in West and East Africa. It’s also the top MCU release ever in the Netherlands.
Asia Pacific dipped 53% with hat tricks at No. 1 for Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines and Singapore. T’Challa has exceeded the entire run of Thor: Ragnarok in Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.
Latin America, typically a big DC region, has been good to the Panther with a 36% drop this session and continued No. 1s across the zone. The film has surpassed Ant-Man, Doctor Strange and GOTG2 there.
In IMAX, the global cume is now $65.5M including a record March opening in Japan and the 4th highest Marvel IMAX opening ever in the market, earning $713K from 29 screens.
The Top 10 overall overseas markets to date are: the UK ($49.1M), Korea ($41.4M), Brazil ($24.9M), Australia ($22.3M), Mexico ($22M), France ($21.4M), Germany ($14.9M), Russia ($12.9M), Taiwan ($11.9M) and Indonesia ($11.3M).
Sony’s animated adventure opened in China this weekend, taking the carrot for top family film with $12.7M, 70% bigger than the 4-day opening of Paddington 2 and 4% ahead of Smurfs: The Lost Village. That forms part of a $14.5 frame in 12 markets which lifts the international cume to $17.9M. There’s now $101.9M in the global hopper before the film truly begins offshore rollout with Mexico, the UK, Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Russia and Spain all coming later this month.
The updated take on Beatrix Potter’s classic is directed by Will Gluck and led by James Corden. It also features international cast in the form of Domhnall Gleeson, Rose Byrne, Margot Robbie, Sam Niell, Daisy Ridley and Elizabeth Debicki.
FIFTY SHADES FREED
Another $10.4M in 61 markets lifts the lovers to $250.2M at the international box office. That brings the global total closer to $350M with $346M on Universal’s climactic final installment in the winning franchise. The top offshore market, Germany, crossed $30M on Sunday after holding at No. 3 with a 42% drop. The UK is next at $24.2M followed by France with $21.4M. Japan is still to come, next weekend.
Warner Bros’ comedy parlayed its second session to $8.5M in 46 markets for a $16.3M cume to date. Weather has been a factor all week in Europe and Game Night saw an uptick towards the weekend, holding to a 44% drop versus the opening frame. The UK, which endured cinema closures due to said weather, opened to $1.5M on 480 screens to come in 81% ahead of Vacation. Germany, typically the strongest non-English-speaking market for Hollywood comedies, opened to $1.1M on 455 for 39% above Daddy’s Home and on par with Horrible Bosses. The Netherlands saw just a 6% drop from open to cume $1.4M to date. The Top markets so far are Australia ($3M), Russia ($2.1M) and the UK. The next openings are in April.
THE SHAPE OF WATER
As Guillermo del Toro’s Best Picture Oscar winner tap danced to another $9.5M in 55 markets over the weekend. Japan was the new opener at $1.62M with France holding best in the 2nd week, dropping 31% to cume $4.4M so far. (The late screening in Aix-en-Provence on Saturday night was packed.) Spain saw a 22% drop for $6.5M to date and the UK is at $7.37M after three sessions. This takes the total on the Fox Searchlight title to $69.4M overseas. There are six more markets to release including China on March 16.
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING MISSOURI
Shape’s Searchlight stablemate Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri posted another $5.8M in 55 markets before winning the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor Oscars on Sunday night. China was among the new plays with a solid $2.4M on 972 screens, good for an art-house title. The Top 5 holdover markets (the UK, Germany, France, Brazil and Spain) dropped less than 25%. In the UK, the Martin McDonagh-directed film has tallied $17.8M after eight frames. The international cume stands at $79.2M with four international markets still to come.
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
The show goes on with another $5.5M in 35 markets for this Fox title. The overseas cume has reached $211.5M with great holds this weekend in Japan (-20%/$19M cume) and the UK where the total is $48.1M and the film is at No. 3 in the 10th frame. Australia’s cume is now $24.2M.
MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE
Rounding out the Fox portion of our update, this threequel has now surpassed the international lifetimes of its predecessors The Scorch Trials and the first Maze Runner by 1% and 11%, respectively. That’s made more impressive by the extra lag between the 2nd and 3rd films. France, typically a top market for the franchise, is holding at No. 3, dropping 32% in the 4th frame for a cume of $21M. In Germany, the total is $7.7M after five sessions for 28% above Scorch Trials.
A $4.3M weekend in 39 markets on the Universal release overseas lifts the international cume to $11.1M for the Oscar nominee. There were 21 new openings this session including France and Italy. The start in France was $857K at 205 dates, ahead of Moonlight, Manchester By The Sea, Room, Brooklyn and Boyhood. In Italy, Greta Gerwig’s drama bowed to $692K at 177. That topped Room, Manchester By The Sea, Brooklyn, Moonlight and Boyhood. The UK leads with $3.4M to date.
MISC UPDATED CUMES/NOTABLE
Phantom Thread (UNI): $2.5M intl weekend (42 markets); $18M intl cume
All The Money In The World (STX): $2.2M intl weekend (67 markets; includes China); $28.8M intl cume
Ice (SNY): $2.1M intl weekend (Russia only); $22.2M intl cume – Sony’s 2nd biggest local production ever in the market
15:17 To Paris (WB): $1.9M Japan opening/$2.2M intl weekend; $15.4M intl cume
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle (SNY): $2.15M intl weekend (79 markets); $536.9M intl cume/$930M WW
Call Me By Your Name (SNY): $1.7M intl weekend (39 markets); $15.3M intl cume
Ferdinand (FOX): $1.6M intl weekend (43 markets); $207.3M intl cume
Den Of Thieves (STX): $1.4M intl weekend (45 markets); $25.8M intl cume
Darkest Hour (UNI): $1.1M intl weekend (50 markets); $83.2M intl cume
As it did last weekend, China‘s Operation Red Sea dominated international box office with $62.6M as reported by comScore. The total is an estimated $479M in China through Monday with an IMAX cume of $21.5M through Sunday. Detective Chinatown 2, so far the leader among Chinese New Year releases, is poised to cross $500M today with $497.7M locally through Monday. For more on that film, and my exclusive interview with its director, go here. New to China was Salman Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan which bowed to $8.4M amid the stiff competition. It nevertheless landed in the Top 10 internationally, two years after its original India release.
Coming in at No. 6 on the international chart, Dany Boon’s La Ch’tite Famille opened in France with a comScore reported $11.9M. Boon earlier this weekend picked up an inaugural César Award that goes to the biggest local box office success, in this case for last year’s Raid Dingue. La Ch’tite Famille is a sort of cousin to his earlier smash Bienvenue Chez Les Ch’tis which in 2008 sold over 20M tickets to become (and remain) the No. 1 French film ever.