Update Sunday AM: Total weekend ticket sales for the sluggish Super Bowl weekend are at $92M per ComScore, and while that’s low, it’s not the lowest for the Big Game frame in recent history. Four years ago, all titles in play during Super Bowl weekend grossed $86M, which was easily rock bottom over the last 12 years. Ride Along was No. 1 during Super Bowl weekend 2014 with $12M in weekend 3.
For all those studios who exclaim that moviegoing is a 52-weekend business, they simply didn’t take advantage of the last three days. While Super Bowl weekend gets a bad reputation for being a downer, if the majors have a solid testosterone or even female-skewing title, they can program it here, or play into the weekend as audiences will make time to go to the cinema.
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Disney’s 2008 Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds concert tour still ranks as the best Super Bowl weekend opening with $31.1M followed by the Nicholas Sparks feature adaptation Dear John ($30.5M) with American Sniper‘s $30.66M in weekend 6 notching the best No. 1 holdover for the period. So, there’s plenty to gross if you put the right product out there. Luc Besson’s produced NAVY Seals movie Renegades was hoping to originally launch over this weekend (EuropaCorp originally made box office history with men and broke through over Super Bowl when 20th Century Fox opened their Liam Neeson action title Taken to an unforeseeable $24.7M and near 6x multiple; $145M final domestic), but has since pulled that title off the schedule in the wake of their Valerian disaster.
So, this Super Bowl weekend settles with Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle coming in close to where we spotted at $11.1M and a running cume of $352.7M which is $300K shy of toppling Furious 7’s $353M as Dwayne Johnson’s highest grossing pic at the domestic box office. It’s the fourth No. 1 weekend for the Jake Kasdan-directed movie in its seven weekends of play.
20th Century Fox’s second weekend of Maze Runner: The Death Cure is at $10.2M, -58% for a 10-day total of $39.7M.
And CBS Films/Lionsgate’s PG-13 Helen Mirren haunted house movie Winchester —the weekend’s only true new wide opener — is slightly higher than yesterday AM’s projection with $9.25M. While we’ve largely seen to date holiday holdovers like Jumanji, The Post, and The Greatest Showman soaking up at the box office, a number of wide entries in the first five weeks of 2018 have been low budget genre movies (around $25M-$30M in budget) targeted at a specific demo like Den of Thieves, 12 Strong, Winchester, Hostiles and The Commuter. Distributors dish out the same story with these titles: They have limited skin in them (either a distribution deal or low MG), are in the hole largely for P&A (or in some cases have it backstopped by the financier), and swear that such titles overperform in the home entertainment ancillary market to the point of profit. Jeez, what a coincidence at a time when the industry is crying that they’re not making enough on home entertainment, and are lobbying for PVOD. Hmmm. But distributors are pointed about bringing such fare to the big screen, and sidestepping a streaming option. Next weekend the studios step up their product to a wider audience with Universal’s Fifty Shades Freed, Sony’s Peter Rabbit and WB/Village Roadshow’s The 15:17 to Paris.
Winchester‘s campaign kicked off with numerous media outlets visiting the production while they were shooting on location at the Winchester House in San Jose, CA. Photographers such as Tony Detroit and Karen Jerzyk as well as artist Daniel Danger were invited to visit the set and create their own content around the film. The house also hosted numerous paranormal investigations and served as the backdrop for numerous integrations.
The Thursday night previews for Winchester included a live psychic reading that was broadcast to hundreds of theaters across the country and yielded that Mirren goes Gothic image which is posted in our first post below. The social campaign leaned heavily into the history and mystery surrounding the House and Winchester herself.
Media highlights for Winchester included a heavy presence in during The Bachelor, Supernatural, CBS This Morning, El rico y Laxaro, Pandora, The Alienist, This Is Us, Real Housewives, Supergirl, Watch What Happens Live, Hulu, El Gordo La Flaca, Rachel Maddow, Riverdale, Dynasty, Sangre de mi Tierra, Schitt’s Creek, The Good Doctor, Al Rojo Vivo con Maria Celeste, Grey’s Anatomy, SWAT, Morning Joe, Chicago Fire, La Madrina, Will & Grace, Decisiones, Late Show With Stephen Colbert, Ru Paul’s Drag Race, Destination America: A Haunting & Paranormal Witness, Ghost Adventures and Catfish.
Entertainment Studios’ western Hostiles set to have a nice hold of -46% with $5.5M.
The top films for the period of Feb. 2-4, Super Bowl weekend 2018:
1..) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,553 theaters (-201) / $2.8M Fri (-24%)/3-day: $11.1M (-32%)/Total:$352.7M/ Wk 7
2..) Maze Runner: Death Cure (FOX), 3,793 theaters (+6) / $3M Fri/$5.3M Sat/$1.9M Sun/ 3-day: $10.2M (-58%) /Total: $39.7M/Wk 2
3..) Winchester (CBS), 2,480 theaters / $3.6M Fri (includes $615K previews)/$4.1M Sat/$1.5M Sun/3-day: $9.25M /Wk 1
4..) The Greatest Showman (FOX), 2,588 theaters (-75) / $2.3M Fri /$4M Sat/$1.5M Sun/ 3-day: $7.8M (-18%)/Total: $137.4M/Wk 7
5..) Hostiles (EST), 2,934 theaters (+118) / $1.6M Fri /$2.6M Sat/ $1.2M Sun/3-day:$5.5M (-46%)/Total: $21.2M/Wk 7
6..) The Post (FOX/DW), 2,462 theaters (-178) / $1.57M Fri /$2.76M Sat/ $870K Sun/3-day:$5.2M (-43%)/Total: $67.1M/Wk 7
7..) 12 Strong (WB/ALC), 2,918 theaters (-100) / $1.4M Fri /$2.4M Sat/$750K Sun/3-day: $4.7M (-46%) /Total: $37.3M/Wk 3
8..) Den of Thieves (STX), 2,112 theaters (-320)/ $1.4M Fri /$2.4M Sat/ $840K Sun/3-day: $4.67M (-46%) /Total: $36.2M/Wk 3
9..) The Shape of Water (FSL), 2,341 theaters (+487) / $1.3M Fri /$2.1M Sat/ $900K Sun/3-day: $4.3M (-27%)/Total: $44.5M/Wk 10
10..) Paddington (WB) 2,388 (-404)/ $660K Fri/$1.75M Sat/ $700K Sun/ 3-day: $3.1M (-45%)/Total: $36.3M/Wk 4
Three Billboards… (FSL), 1,726 theaters (+269) / $880K Fri /$1.59M Sat/ $530K Sun/3-day: $3M (-21%)/Total: $41.8M/Wk 13
I, Tonya (NEON/30), 1,450 theaters (+490) / $773K Fri /$1.2M Sat/ $509K Sun/3-day: $2.55M (-15%)/Total: $22.6M/Wk 9
Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,486 theaters (+153)/ $710K Fri /$1.2M Sat/ $489K Sun/3-day: $2.4M (-16%)/Total: $48.8M/ Wk 11
Phantom Thread (FOC), 1,186 theaters (+165) / $636K Fri /$1m Sat/ $467K Sun/3-day: $2.1M (-28%)/Total: $14.1M/Wk 6
Lady Bird (A24), 1,109 theaters (-63)/ $393K Fri/$671K Sat/$295K Sun/3-day: $1.3M (-31%)/Total: $43.7M/ Wk 14
Call Me By Your Name (SPC), 581 theaters (-234)/3-day: $1M (-22%) /Total: $12.9M/ Wk 11
A Fantastic Woman (SPC), 5 theaters/ PTA: $14K /3-day: $70,9k / Wk 1
Writethru Saturday AM, following Friday PM post: While many were calling CBS Films/Lionsgate’s Winchester at No. 1 for the weekend yesterday, box office fates appeared to have changed with estimates now forecasting Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle at its fourth No. 1 weekend out of seven with an estimated $11M. While the Dwayne Johnson-Kevin Hart-Jack Black-Karen Gillan pic didn’t win Friday with $2.8M, the projection is that it will lead all films on Saturday with $6M and on Sunday with $2.4M; the notion being that the family pic is Teflon at the B.O. which is traditionally the case with such fare over Super Bowl weekend.
20th Century Fox’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure has that young female fandom of Dylan O’Brien working in its favor over the guy game frame, which puts that threequel’s estimates in second place with $10M in weekend two, -38% with a running total of $39.6M.
Estimates for CBS/Lionsgate’s Winchester are now at $8.6M after being the top film on Friday with $3.6M. CBS Films literally saw it at this low-end level yesterday and we didn’t listen because too many reports showed the Michael and Peter Spierig-directed movie between $10M-$11M. In order for Winchester to clear $10M, it will have to post a Saturday of at least $5M. CBS Films gets its MG of $3.5M back this weekend, but is still in the hole for another mid teens worth of P&A.
Winchester gets a B- CinemaScore which is the same grade that CBS Films’ 2012 haunted house title The Woman in Black received. She opened to $20.8M in an era when it was Daniel Radcliffe’s first movie following the last Harry Potter and did a 2.6x for a final domestic cume of $54.3M. Males turned up at 42% to females at 58% for Winchester which is a very similar ratio to Woman in Black. However, 57% under 25 bought tickets for that Radcliffe title, while 64% over 25 were the leading ticket buyers per CinemaScore for the Helen Mirren movie. Those 18-24 (repping 17% of the audience) gave Winchester its best grade of a B.
Critics have been cruel with an 8% Rotten Tomatoes score and we can attribute the slowdown in Winchester turnstiles to that factor. When you’re a horror title in this marketplace you have to win all fronts (almost like a Marvel movie), critically and audience reaction wise.
Relish calls out Winchester for having a less than stellar social media reach with close to 46M followers across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Instagram which is half of what Universal/Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Last Key possessed. Keep in mind that Winchester is original IP versus Insidious which has built up its social media followers over four titles. Mirren is the only social media star with 321K fans on Instagram with other members of the cast having less than 10K followers. However, CBS employed an ‘Inspired By True Events’ type of social media campaign with hundreds of pieces of content that reached tens of millions of people resulting in several times that many impressions.
Relish Mix did acknowledge heading into the weekend that, “Winchester has a fairly positive conversation surrounding it mostly due to the the fact that it is a true horror story. Fans have used the comments to discuss the actual Winchester house, especially among California residents who may have visited the actual house. With the film focusing on an actual Winchester family, some have expressed confusion about if this film relates to another Winchester family from the hit show, Supernatural. ‘It will be a great movie and the scenarios are true story and that makes it very interesting’ writes one fan, whose thoughts sum up the thoughts of many others in the comments.”
Check out Mirren doing ‘Drop the Mic’ with James Corden closing in on 900K views:
Fox titles own half of the top 10 spots on the weekend chart with Oscar nominee leader The Shape of Water easing 31% in weekend 10 with $4.1M and a running total of $44.5M by Sunday, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri breaking into the top 10 with $2.9M, -23% in weekend 13 and a running cume of $41.6M.
The top films for Super Bowl weekend 2018, Feb. 2-4:
1..) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,553 theaters (-201) / $2.8M Fri (-24%)/3-day: $11M (-32%)/Total:$352.6M/ Wk 7
2..) Maze Runner: Death Cure (FOX), 3,793 theaters (+6) / $3M Fri (-%)/3-day: $10M (-38%) /Total: $39.6M/Wk 2
3..) Winchester (CBS), 2,480 theaters / $3.6M Fri (includes $615K previews)/3-day: $8.6M /Wk 1
4..) The Greatest Showman (FOX), 2,588 theaters (-75) / $2.3M Fri (-8%) / 3-day: $7.75M (-19%)/Total: $137.3M/Wk 7
5..) Hostiles (EST), 2,934 theaters (+118) / $1.6M Fri (-51%) /3-day:$5.2M (-48%)/Total: $21M/Wk 7
6..) The Post (FOX/DW), 2,462 theaters (-178) / $1.5M Fri (-35%) /3-day:$5.1M (-44%)/Total: $67M/Wk 7
7..) 12 Strong (WB/ALC), 2,918 theaters (-100) / $1.45M Fri (-36%)/3-day: $4.7M (-45%) /Total: $37.3M/Wk 3
8..) Den of Thieves (STX), 2,112 theaters (-320)/ $1.4M Fri (-39%)/3-day: $4.6M (-46%) /Total: $36.2M/Wk 3
9..) The Shape of Water (FSL), 2,341 theaters (+487) / $1.3M Fri (-19%) /3-day: $4.1M (-31%)/Total: $44.5M/Wk 10
10..) Three Billboards… (FSL), 1,726 theaters (+269) / $905K Fri (-9%) /3-day: $2.92M (-23%)/Total: $41.68M/Wk 13
I, Tonya (NEON/30), 1,450 theaters (+490) / $774K Fri (-9%)/3-day: $2.5M (-15%)/Total: $22.6M/Wk 9
Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,486 theaters (+153)/ $706K Fri (-7%) /3-day: $2.1M (-26%)/Total: $48.6M/ Wk 11
Phantom Thread (FOC), 1,186 theaters (+165) / $634K Fri (-22%)/3-day: $1.9M (-36%)/Total: $13.9M/Wk 6
Lady Bird (A24), 1,109 theaters (-63)/ $389K (-20%) Fri/3-day: $1.3M (-31%)/Total: $43.6M/ Wk 14
Call Me By Your Name (SPC), 581 theaters (-234)/ $251K (-27%) Fri/3-day: $813k (-37%)/Total: $12.7M/ Wk 11
A Fantastic Woman (SPC), 5 theaters/ $18,8K Fri/PTA: $10,8K /3-day: $54k / Wk 1
Friday midday: As of this minute off matinees, Deadline hears that CBS Films/Lionsgate’s haunted house movie Winchester is taking No. 1 for the weekend with $10M-$11M, well above where the distributor was seeing it, but at the top of tracking.
The Helen Mirren movie is also shaping up to be No. 1 for Friday with $4.5M at 2,480 theaters. Good play by CBS/Lionsgate by finding a spot to launch this movie on the calendar while a majority of the other studios are opting to blow their P&A on Super Bowl spots. Before P&A, CBS paid $3.5M for the U.S. rights to Winchester.
Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and 20th Century Fox’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure will be fighting it out for second with $8.5M-$9.5M. Saturday matinees could make them richer while business comes to a standstill on Sunday. Respectively both by Sunday will raise their cumes to $351.1M and $39M.
Fox is also faring well in regards to holding The Greatest Showman which looks to sing around $7M, -27% or a running total in weekend 7 of $137M.
Entertainment Studios’ Christian Bale western Hostiles at 2,934 is looking at $5M, -50% in weekend 7 with a running total of by Sunday of $20.7M.
Neon/30WEST’s I, Tonya looks to gain $2.2M from its expansion to 1,442 theaters in weekend 9 for a running cume of $22.3M.
PREVIOUS: CBS Films/Lionsgate’s Winchester fired off $615K in Thursday night previews last night.
That figure comes in ahead of the preview nights of such PG-13 horror fare as Blumhouse’s The Lazarus Effect ($350K, $10.2M opening weekend), and under Blair Witch ($765K preview, $9.6M opening) and last year’s Rings ($800K, $13M opening).
CBS is spotting this Helen Mirren-Jason Clarke haunted house pic between $6M-$8M, however, it could come in much higher at $10M at 2,480 theaters for either a third or fourth place rank. Mirren got all goth last night at a fan screening in Playa Vista:
Winchester is the only new wide release this weekend in what is expected to be a very sleepy Super Bowl weekend given the fact that the majors are sitting on the sidelines.
As such 20th Century Fox’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure looks to take No. 1 with $12M-$13M in weekend 2. The pic has made roughly over $1M each night of this week and currently ends week 1 with $29.6M.
Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle grossed $842K last night with a running cume at the end of six weeks of $341.6M. By the end of this weekend it will come closer to becoming Dwayne Johnson’s highest grossing film of all-time at the domestic B.O., beating Furious 7‘s $353M.
Entertainment Studios’ western Hostiles through six weeks counts an estimated $15.7M.
While the studios sleep, specialty fare will reap, and that’s why we have Neon/30WEST’s three-time Oscar nominee I, Tonya jumping from 960 to 1,442 theaters. Through eight weeks the Margot Robbie-Allison Janney movie counts $20M.
In addition, Fox Searchlight is taking Guillermo del Toro’s 13 Oscar nominee The Shape of Water even higher, from 1,854 locations to 2,341. Through nine weeks, The Shape of Water counts $40M. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is even ratcheting up, going from 1,457 venues to 1,726 — it’s widest break to date in its 12 week run which has accumulated $38.8M at the domestic B.O.
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