Update Sunday AM: Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is up to $36M for the weekend in No. 1, but the biggest gain was made by Universal/Blumhouse/Stage 6’s Insidious: The Last Key with $29.3M over 3 days after a Saturday where there wasn’t as much falloff with $11M, -13%. Overall, a very robust first weekend of 2018, estimated to gross $162M, +18% over last year. MLK will be another great moviegoing weekend with Liam Neeson’s The Commuter, Warner Bros./StudioCanal’s Paddington 2 and Screen Gems’ Proud Mary coming into the marketplace. Those in the industry consider MLK to be the end point of the holiday season, and at that point assess how their holiday season releases fared in an arena where Last Jedi dominated.
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The industry sees Insidious where Uni is spotting it, and if the pic’s grosses keep intact, it will file in as the third best horror debut in January after after Split ($40M opening) and The Devil Inside ($33.7M). Insidious 4 even beats Uni’s Mama ($28.4M) and the film is nickels and dimes ahead of Blumhouse’s Paranormal Activity 4 ($29M opening). It’s a commendable feat for this genre pic which cost $10M before P&A: Typically in this day and age, you need the critics on your side when it comes to posting a great horror start at the B.O. like this one, and Insidious 4 just didn’t have that at 25% rotten. Audiences are also OK on it with a B- (a CinemaScore that’s considered alright when it comes to horror pics; unlike four-quad events films). Clearly Insidious 4 is a case of the millennials wanting something fresh in the holiday holdover market.
Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi is taking 3rd with $23.6M with a running cume of $572.5M. Episode VIII is the sixth highest grossing film at the domestic B.O., and has another $50.8M to go to notch fifth place and beat Disney/Marvel’s The Avengers ($623.3M). Last Jedi is the fourth biggest Imax release in U.S./Canada with $65M, outstripping Jurassic World ($58.1M) and close to tipping The Dark Knight Rises ($67.6M). At 416 Imax hubs in weekend 4, Last Jedi made $2.8M. Lionsgate’s Liam Neeson action pic The Commuter will share some of those Imax auditoriums with Last Jedi next weekend.
STXfilms/eOne/Mark Gordon Company’s Molly’s Game is also higher, now filing $7M in its second weekend in 7th, ahead of Focus Features’ Darkest Hour which earned $6.4M. As we mentioned earlier, this is a better wide break than all the other indie films that the industry has deemed as successes, i.e. Wind River, Hell or High Water, and The Big Sick. STXfilms wanted to care and nurture this critically acclaimed Aaron Sorkin film; not bust it so wide like Uni did with his 2015 scripted Steve Jobs that it would be deemed a failure, especially during the epicenter of awards season. Steve Jobs made $7.1M when it wide at 2,493 theaters with an average of $2,4K and Molly’s Game is better with a double that average at $4,3K: The movie is essentially making more than Steve Jobs and in fewer theaters. At $14.2M in weekend 2, the Jessica Chastain pic is close to eclipsing the entire $17.7M domestic B.O. of Steve Jobs. STXfilms is on the hook for P&A and a $9M acquisition cost for U.S. and China. Molly’s Game is up for best screenplay and best actress drama Jessica Chastain at the Golden Globes. Heading into Oscar noms, the movie currently touts a PGA and WGA adapted noms; which some other pics like Focus Features’ Phantom Thread cannot.
Props again to 20th Century Fox’s The Greatest Showman this weekend which started very slow, but is lasting long with $13.8M third weekend, -11% and a running cume of $76.9M. It too has a sophisticated, older audience draw which means they take their time heading to the cinema. The pic’s soundtrack is also No. 1 on iTunes.
Neon’s I, Tonya which is up for three Golden Globes including best comedy, Margot Robbie best actress comedy and Allison Janney best supporting actress increased its theater acreage by 193 theaters for 242 and minted $2.4M which is a tad above what Molly’s Game did last weekend in its first full weekend. Neon plans to capitalize on the Olympic winter and awards season in amassing cash for the Tonya Harding biopic.
Entertainment Studios’ western Hostiles jumped up by 41 theaters and at a current count of 46 made $310K with solid play in the middle of the country for a running total of $435K. The Scott Cooper directed film, which reteams him with his Out of the Furnace star Christan Bale goes wide in over 3,000 theaters on Jan. 19. Pic carries a 73% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Studio-reported figures for top pics and Golden Globe nominees:
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,801 theaters (+36) / $10.8M Fri /$15.9M Sat/$9.26M Sun/3-day: $36M (-28%)/Total:$244.3M/ Wk 3
- Insidious: The Last Key (UNI), 3,116 theaters (0)/ $12.7M Fri/$11M Sat/ $5.6M Sun/3-day: $29.3M/ Wk 1
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $6.6M Fri/$10.5M Sat/$6.4M Sun/3-day: $23.6M (-55%)/Total:$572.5M/ Wk 4
- The Greatest Showman (FOX), 3,342 theaters (+26) / $4.1M Fri /$5.8M Sat/$3.9M Sun/ 3-day: $13.8M (-11%)/Total: $76.9M/Wk 3
- Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 3,458 theaters (-10)/ $3.3M Fri /$4.4M Sat/ $2.5M Sun/3-day: $10.2M (-39%)/Total: $85.9M/ Wk 3
- Ferdinand (FOX), 3,156 theaters (-181) / $2.2M Fri /$3.2M Sat/ $2.3M Sun/3-day: $7.7M (-32%)/Total: $70.5M/ Wk 4
- Molly’s Game (STX) 1,608 theaters (+1,337)/$2.3M Fri /$2.9M Sat/ $1.8M Sun/3-day: $7M (+198%)/Total: $14.2M/ Wk 2
- Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,733 theaters (+790)/ $1.8M Fri /$2.6M Sat/$1.9M Sun/ 3-day: $6.3M (+16%)/ Total: $28.3M/ Wk 7
- Coco(DIS), 1,894 theaters (-210) / $1.5M Fri /$2.1M Sat/ $1.8M Sun/3-day: $5.5M (-26%)/Total: $192M / Wk 7
- All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,123 theaters (+49)/ $1M Fri /$1.5M Sat/ $930K Sun/3-day: $3.55M (-36%)/Total: $20.1M/Wk 2
- The Shape of Water (FSL), 804 theaters (+48) / $850K Fri /$1.36M Sat/ $890K Sun/ 3-day: $3.1M (-12%)/Total: $21.6M/Wk 6
- I, Tonya (NEO), 804 theaters (+48) / $730K Fri /$932K Sat/ $764K Sun/ 3-day: $2.4M (+297%)/Total: $5.3M/Wk 5
The Post (FOX/DW), 36 theaters (+27) / $498K Fri /$713k Sat/$502K Sun/3-day: $1.7M (+203%)/Total: $3.8M/Wk 3
Lady Bird (A24), 562 theaters (+170) / $422K Fri /$669k Sat/$468K Sun/3-day: $1.5M (+6%)/Total: $34.1M/Wk 10
The Disaster Artist (A24), 478 theaters (-29) / $229K Fri /$315k Sat/$237K Sun/3-day: $781,5K (-16%)/Total: $19.5M/Wk 6
Call Me By Your Name (SPC), 117 theaters (+2) / 3-day: $758K (+1%)/Total: $6M/Wk 7
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (FSL), 310 theaters (+44) / $187K Fri /$318K Sat/ $200K Sun/ 3-day: $705K (+4%)/Total: $25.3M/Wk 9
Hostiles (ES) 46 theaters (+41) $87K Fri/$114K Sat/$109K Sun/ 3-day: $310K (+827%)/Total $435K/Wk 3
Phantom Thread (FOC), 6 theaters (+2) / $67K Fri /$99K Sat/ Sun/ 3-day: $245K (+13%)/PTA: $40K/Total: $952K/Wk 2
The Florida Project (A24), 37 t4heaters (+) / $15K Fri /$27k Sat/$19K Sun/3-day: $60,7K (+21%)/Total: $5.4M/Wk 14
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (SPC), 4 theaters / 3-day: $24,2K (-38%)/PTA: $6K/Total: $83K/Wk 2
Writethru Saturday AM: More theaters are open in the Northeast following Thursday’s closures due to Winter Storm Grayson. As predicted, it’s business as usual, and thanks to the flood of kids who were off (40% K-12 and 87% colleges) Friday, total weekend ticket sales for the first FSS of 2018 are looking at $159M, +16% over the same frame a year ago. Not a bad start.
By Sunday audiences will have shelled out over $572M for Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Already they’ve seen it anywhere from 2-4 times and it’s for that reason alone why we’re seeing it creep down the chart with a third place take of $23.6M. Episode VIII is being beaten by Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle in first place with a stellar $35.8M third weekend, -28%, and Universal/Blumhouse’s fourthquel Insidious: The Last Key with $25.9M in second. After Split ($40M opening), The Devil Inside ($33.7M) and Mama ($28.4M), Insidious: The Last Key is bound to be the fourth best debut for a horror pic in January. RelishMix notices that the pic’s social media universe at close to 115M across Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube is solid and 100% ahead of Blumhouse’s fall release Happy Death Day (which opened to $26M off a B CinemaScore). Insidious 4 drew 57% females, 39% under 18, 68% under 25 per CinemaScore. Those under 18 gave the pic its best score of B+ while those over 50 at 6% slapped the horror film with a D+.
Ever since Miramax catered to an under 25 crowd with Scream in the mid-’90s, horror has easily won over that demo during the holiday and post-New Year’s period, and Insidious 4 continues that trend. It’s a prime time to appease them: According to Fandango most millennials went to the cinema 2 to 4 times over the Christmas break, so Insidious 4 arrives at a time when they’re ready for something new. The fourthquel gets a B- CinemaScore which is so far the lowest in the franchise next to the B+s earned by parts 2 and 3, and the B earned by the 2011 original. Insidious 4 won Friday with $12.7M followed by Jumanji with $10.7M and Last Jedi with $6.7M.
Aside from having a great weekend with Jumanji, Sony also has skin in the $10M-financed Insidious 4 under its Stage 6 label. Sony Worldwide Acquisitions is also handling overseas.
Jumanji is expected to end the weekend with a running domestic cume of $244.1M. It’s already Kevin Hart’s highest grossing live-action feature of all-time stateside and will be Jack Black’s as well (beating King Kong at $218M by Sunday). For Dwayne Johnson, Jumanji will be his third best ever behind Furious 7 ($353M) and Moana ($248.7M); technically speaking it ranks second among his live action fare. Wow. RelishMix reports, “Video views for Jumanji on YouTube have clocked a healthy 22.3M in the last week while convo is surpassing the skeptics as the chatter is mixed-positive, talking about the laughs as well as the action.” RelishMix also observes audiences are going into the pic with low expectations and walking out thinking it’s the funniest pic they’ve seen in some time. There’s even shoutouts on social that moviegoers plan to buy it on Blu-Ray.
Sony/TriStar’s $50M Ridley Scott production All the Money in the World continues to struggle with $3.6M in its second weekend and very little awards recognition to date since it was late of the gate due to reshoots. While Christopher Plummer might have a shot at a Golden Globe best supporting actor win this weekend, the pic came up short at the PGAs and the WGAs.
20th Century Fox’s The Greatest Showman continues its slow burn, down only 9% with an estimated $14.1M fourth place and a running cume in week 3 of $77.2M. This film is fueled by audience’s very warm word of mouth; and that’s with little awards mojo behind it as opposed to Fox Searchlight’s The Shape of Water (seven Golden Globe noms, two SAG noms and 14 Critics’ Choice nominations). The Guillermo del Toro directed title is expanding slowing, +48 locations with a current count of 804 and a 6th weekend of $2.8M, -20% and a total cume by Sunday of $21.3M.
The only other title to break wide before MLK weekend today is STXfilms’ Molly’s Game which went from 271 to 1,608 theaters, set to meet the middle of its tracking range with $6.6M. As of Saturday morning, it’s ahead of Focus Features’ Darkest Hour in weekend 7 which currently counts $6.1M at 1,733. Compared to previous and current critically-acclaimed awards season pics like The Big Sick, Hell or High Water and Wind River, wide break for Molly’s Game is very good, and even greatly ahead of some of those titles. Wind River made $4M when it broke north of 2,000 screens, Hell or High Water made $4M when it was at 1,303 and the Big Sick was at $7.5M when it surged from 326 to 2,500-plus locations.
One school of thought believes that this $30M production should be doing better; that a $10M wide break would be considered a great success and that the pic should have widen later in January. However, STX only bought U.S. and China for $9M + P&A stateside so their cash breakeven is lower than if they financed the pic outright. eOne largely bankrolled this $30M feature. Many need to realize that Molly’s Game is an adult dramatic biopic about a Poker tabloid princess who arguably many haven’t heard of. It’s not a genre pic for a specific demo like Aviron’s acquisition Kidnap, nor is Molly’s Game even akin to Aaron Sorkin’s Oscar winner The Social Network. That pic was propelled by a major studio P&A spend, and was also about the founding of the most popular social media website in recent history which clocks 2 billion users monthly. Molly’s Game was originally set up at Sony before producer Gordon decided to have the movie funded independently. We also need to factor in the current marketplace in regards to how much these awards contenders are making: The only other prestige pic doing as well as Molly’s Game is Focus’ Winston Churchhill biopic. Largely broad demo pics are ruling the roost. If Molly’s Game was to go wide next weekend (instead of this weekend) it would encounter DreamWorks/Fox’s The Post in 2,800 which has a tremendous amount of awards heat throughout all categories and a Rotten Tomatoes score that’s a tad higher than Molly’s Game (87% certified fresh to 82%). Instead Molly’s has the benefit of playing into MLK.
Given how sophisticated audiences take their time heading to the cinema, STXfilms is looking at the long haul for Molly’s Game especially given its awards traction with a PGA nomination today, and a WGA adapted award yesterday for filmmaker Sorkin’s screenplay. Sorkin’s screenplay is also nominated at the Golden Globes this Sunday along with Jessica Chastain in the best actress drama category. By Sunday in its first 13 days of release, Molly’s Game will count $13.8M at the domestic B.O. which among Chastain’s independent titles has already clicked past the final cumes of Oscar best picture nominee and Palme d’Or winner The Tree of Life ($13.3M), A Most Violent Year ($5.7M), Miss Sloane ($3.5M) and ultimately Focus’ The Zookeeper’s Wife ($17.4M). No, Molly’s Game isn’t Chastain’s Bin Laden hunt title Zero Dark Thirty, it’s something that’s less broad.
Industry estimates for the weekend of Jan. 5-7:
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,801 theaters (+36) / $10.7M Fri (-39%)/3-day: $35.8M (-28%)/Total:$244.1M/ Wk 3
- Insidious: The Last Key (UNI), 3,116 theaters (0)/ $12.7M Fri/3-day: $25.9M/ Wk 1
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $6.7M Fri (-65%)/3-day: $23.6M (-55%)/Total:$572.5M/ Wk 4
- The Greatest Showman (FOX), 3,342 theaters (+26) / $4.1M Fri (-22%) / 3-day: $14.1M (-9%)/Total: $77.2M/Wk 3
- Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 3,458 theaters (-10)/ $3.3M Fri (-50%)/3-day: $10.5M (-37%)/Total: $86.2M/ Wk 3
- Ferdinand (FOX), 3,156 theaters (-181) / $2.3M Fri (-47%) /3-day: $8.9M (-22%)/Total: $71.6M/ Wk 4
- Molly’s Game (STX) 1,608 theaters (+1,337)/$2.3M Fri (+193%)/3-day: $6.6M (+187%)/Total: $13.8M/ Wk 2
- Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,733 theaters (+790)/ $1.8M Fri (+6%) /3-day: $6.1M (+13%)/ Total: $28.1M/ Wk 7
- Coco(DIS), 1,894 theaters (-210) / $1.6 M Fri (-45%)/3-day: $5.7M (-22%)/Total: $192.2M / Wk 7
- All The Money in the World (Sony) 2,123 theaters (+49)/ $1M Fri (-40%)/3-day: $3.6M (-34%)/Total: $20.2M/Wk 2
- The Shape of Water (FSL), 804 theaters (+48) / $828K Fri (-25%) /3-day: $2.8M (-20%)/Total: $21.3M/Wk
- The Post (FOX/DW), 36 theaters (+27) / $500K Fri (+192%) /3-day: $1.6M (+182%)/Total: $3.7M/WkPhantom Thread (FOC), 6 theaters (+2) / $63K Fri (-11%)/3-day: $210K (-3%)/PTA: $34K/Total: $917K/Wk 2
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (SPC), 4 theaters / $6K Fri (-45%)/3-day: $22K (-38%)/PTA: $5,3K/Total: $81K/Wk 2
Friday: 7:15AM: On a Thursday night when Winter Storm Grayson has iced out the northeast with closings among the major theater chains AMC, Regal and National Amusements, Universal/Blumhouse’s fourthquel Insidious: The Last Key drew an impressive $1.98M.
How does this compare to its previous chapters? Insidious: Chapter 3 took in $1.55M at 2,150 theates on its Thursday back in June 2015 before posting a $22.3M opening. Insidious Chapter 2, earned $1.5M and went on to rep the biggest opening in the horror series and ultimately its highest grossing chapter, debuting to $40.3M and finaling at $83.6M domestic.
The last PG-13 Blumhouse release Happy Death Day drew $1M before earning a $26M opening. However, that was off of a Rotten Tomatoes score of 71%. The fourth Insidious enters a strong holiday holdover marketplace with brand recognition, and zero respect from the critics at 23% Rotten.
Insidious: The Last Key is projected to earn north of $20M while Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will fight for No. 1 with $25M-$26M. That’s according to tracking figures. Despite theater closures in the Northeast, distribution chiefs are expecting those multiplexes to reopen in time for tonight. Today alone, ComScore counts 40% K-12 and 87% colleges off.
Ever since New Year’s Day, Jumanji has been whipping Last Jedi on a daily basis. That was the same case on Thursday with Jumanji making an estimated $6M and Last Jedi $4.4M. Jumanji stands at over $208M stateside while Last Jedi is now 29% behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens just prior to its fourth weekend. Rival distributors believe that Last Jedi‘s end game is now in the mid $600M range versus the $700M initially projected. Currently the Rian Johnson-directed movie is the sixth highest on the all-time domestic list, just under Disney’s Marvel’s The Avenger which made $623.3M.
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