MONDAY UPDATE, 7:11 AM: Yesterday was a day for moms at the movies, with 20th Century Fox’s R-rated comedy Snatched grossing $8.05 million repping an amazing 25% Sunday box office boost over Saturday for a final opening take of $19.5M in second place. And Snatched wasn’t the only movie getting a hug from mom: Pantelion/Lionsgate’s How To Be A Latin Lover jumped 24% over Saturday with $1.69M, and Disney’s Beauty And The Beast upticked 1% with $1.8M.
Typically, we see good holds on Mothers’ Day in the form of dips for female-centric pics — i.e., 2015’s Hot Pursuit (-2%) and The Age Of Adaline (-4%) or 2014’s The Other Women (-16%). Last year, this boost trend for the holiday began when Garry Marshall’s final movie Mother’s Day in its second weekend saw a 60% surge vs. Saturday with $5.6M.
Though critics didn’t like Amy Schumer’s latest outing as much as her cinematic debut Trainwreck, (respective Rotten Tomatoes ratings 36% rotten, to 85% certified fresh), the comedy plays significantly better with audiences, not to mention it’s pulling older audiences who are fans of star Goldie Hawn. Snatched reps Hawn’s return to the big screen after 15 years following 2002’s The Banger Sisters. Snatched is produced by Chernin Entertainment and FeigeCo.
In addition, the weekend’s No. 1 movie Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 and clunker King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword also look to be coming in better than expected with $65M and $15.4M, respectively, over three days. GOTG2 saw an estimated $20.9M Sunday, down 25%, while Guy Ritchie’s latest drew $4.6M, off 16% from Saturday.
5TH UPDATE, Sunday AM Postmortem: One of the interesting takeaways from this Mothers’ Day weekend in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s complete decimation of Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword is that the Disney/Marvel movie will reach close to break-even in less than three weeks of its run, while Guy Ritchie’s medieval mess may not earn back its industry estimated $100M-plus P&A — and both pics’ negative costs are within 14% of each other (GOTG2 with $200M and King Arthur with $175M).
Overall, this Mothers’ Day weekend is coming in with overall ticket sales of $128M per ComScore, the lowest for this holiday frame since 2008.
GOTG2 is looking at a second weekend of $63M per Disney after a Saturday that was +70% over Friday with $27.8M. Many industry estimates believe GOTG2 is much higher between $64M-$66M. By Disney’s measure, the James Gunn pic will be at $246.1M by the end of today. Global is at $630.6M right now for the Marvel sequel.
20th Century Fox is reporting a $17.5M opening for the Amy Schumer-Goldie Hawn combo Snatched after a 29% boost on Saturday over Friday with $6.45M. Many foresee a fantastic hold for the movie of -5% to -6% on Mother’s Day today. Snatched‘s one asset in regards to remaining in theaters is that it’s the only comedy out there until Sony’s Kate McKinnon-Scarlett Johansson R-rated Rough Night occurs on June 16. Snatched at $42M before P&A cost a similar amount to MGM/WB’s Hot Pursuit, another Mother’s Day weekend release from two years ago that had worse reviews than the Schumer-Hawn combo and tanked with $13.9M and close to $52M global. I’m told that Snatched is not Hot Pursuit, and has the potential to leg out. Snatched is a mother-daughter comedy with comedy legend Hawn, who is pulling in a sizable portion of the older audience (72% were over 25, with 51% between 18-34) coupled with Schumer’s fan base. Hot Pursuit starred Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon and a TV star. Two very different movies. The outlook here is that Snatched goes on to make $60M, and potentially $100M worldwide; it was built to be profitable by the end of the day. Paul Feig’s FeigeCo also produced Snatched.
And King Arthur is falling to the ground with $14.7M for the weekend, after a $5.5M Saturday that’s +4% over its Friday. As we assessed on late, late Friday night, the movie is a casualty from a previous administration at Warner Bros., and the cinematic ego of Guy Ritchie. If there’s any good news for Warner Bros. after a string of low-budget bombs, as well as this one year to date, the studio is actually +3% at the domestic B.O. for the period of Jan. 1- May 14 vs. same frame a year ago with $489.1M thanks to Lego Batman and Kong: Skull Island repping 70% of their ticket sales.
One trusted Deadline film finance boss expressed how enraged he was over Warner Bros.’ overspend here on King Arthur: “They should have followed the Tom Rothman rule of being fiscally responsible and creatively reckless: Make original IP for a cost effective price. If it works then spend more if necessary on the sequel. King Arthur should have been done for $60M-$80M. Warner Bros. had no reason to spend $175M-plus on this picture. Hell, even Jumanji with The Rock included cost way less. Logan cost $97.1M net. WTF was Warners thinking?…It’s just bad for the business.”
But given Warners’ eight-year commitment to bringing the King Arthur brand to the big screen, they refused to give up, even when HBO’s Games of Thrones became the standard for the genre. While the $175M negative cost number is out there for Ritchie’s King Arthur, God knows that Warner’s overall investment in the property through various iterations going back to Bryan Singer’s Excalibur reboot is exorbitantly higher. Indeed, there was a lot of money wasted here in pre-productions alone. Speaking of dusty old IP, what’s up with Warner Bros.’ Jungle Book: Origins movie? That movie seems to be a casualty of Disney’s Jungle Book‘s near $1 billion success, having been developed at the same time. WB is trying to shape their version Jungle Book into something that’s as distinctive and different as possible. The Andy Serkis-directed movie comes out on Oct. 19, 2018.
Props to BH Tilt & OTL’s Lowriders for cracking the top 10 with $2.4M at 295 sites. The pic about the lowrider car culture in SoCal’s Latino communities specifically targeted 17-54 year Hispanics. There’s something Pantelion-brilliant about how this movie popped here with a per theater of $8K-plus.
Lowriders follows Danny, a talented young street artist caught between the lowrider world inhabited by his old-school father and ex-con brother and the adrenaline-fueled outlet that defines his self-expression. Lowriders’ passengers repped 53% men, 58% over 25. Eight-two percent of the overall audience rated Lowriders either excellent or very good.
Per studio-reported Sunday morning estimates:
1.). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 4,347 theaters / $16.4M Fri. /$27.8M Sat/$18.8M Sun/ 3-day cume: $63M (-57%)/Total: $246.1M/ Wk 2
Industry weekend projection: $64M-$66M
2.). Snatched (FOX), 3,501 theaters / $5M Fri. /$6.45M Sat/$6.05M Sun 3-day cume: $17.5M/ Wk 1
3.). King Arthur (WB/VR), 3,702 theaters / $5.3M Fri./$5.5M Sat./$3.9M Sun/ 3-day cume: $14.7M/ Wk 1
4.) The Fate Of The Furious (UNI), 3,067 theaters (-528) / $1.3M Fri. /$2.3M Sat/$1.7M Sun/ 3-day cume: $5.3M (-38%) / Total cume: $215m / Wk 5
5.) The Boss Baby (Fox) 2,911 (-373), $965k Fri/$2M Sat/ $1.6M Sun/3-day: $4.6M (-22%)/Total: $162.4M/Wk 7
6.) Beauty And The Beast (DIS) 2,172 (-508), $960K/$1.79M Sat/$1.1M Sun/3-day: $3.86M (-24%)/Total: $493.1M/Wk 9
7). How To Be A Latin Lover (PANT/LG), 1,123 theaters (-80) / $819k Fri. /$1.36M Sat/$1.56M Sun/ 3-day cume: $3.75M (-27%)/ Total: $26.1M/Wk 3
8.). Lowriders (OTL), 295 theaters / $908k Fri. /$792K Sat/$790K Sun/ 3-day cume: $2.4M/ Wk 1
9). The Circle (STX/EUR), 2,132 theaters (-1,081) / $490k Fri. /$780k Sat/$470K Sun/ 3-day cume: $1.74M (-56%)/Total:$18.9M/ Wk 3
10). Baahubali 2: The Conclusion (GINF) 359 theaters (-60) / $370k Fri. /$692K Sat/$488K Sun/ 3-day cume: $1.5M (-54%) /Total:$18.9M/ Wk 3
Saturday AM update, with chart: It never helps following a huge Marvel movie at the start of summer, and if anyone is interested in getting off their couch and heading to the movies this weekend, the only film they want to see is the comic book label’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2. The sequel is is currently set to earn $61.9 million in its second weekend at 4,347 locations, a 58% drop over its opening frame.
Box office history proves this: This is the ninth time in 11 years a Marvel movie has owned the second weekend of May, and if you’re a studio, you either counterprogram that — which 20th Century Fox/Chernin Entertainment did this weekend with its Mothers Day destination Snatched, poised to make $16.5M at 3,501 theaters in second place — or, well, you dump your goods.
Even though Warner Bros/Village Roadshow’s Guy Ritchie King Arthur changed release dates four times, there likely isn’t a spot on the calendar that would have saved it. As of this morning, King Arthur is set to eat dirt at $14.3M at 3,702 theaters. Critics at 27% Rotten are warning audiences to stay away, and despite a B+ CinemaScore by attendees, PostTrak shows that audiences aren’t so impressed, with a 78% Positive Score. Forty-seven percent of all moviegoers on CinemaScore came out for leading man Charlie Hunnam, a very notable draw for a lead actor, and that crowd even gave King Arthur an A-.
In this social-media age, potential moviegoers were all too wise to avoid King Arthur. Social media monitor RelishMix noticed that word of mouth was mixed, with fans divided.
“Some are really interested to see what Guy Ritchie, the man who made Sherlock Holmes cool again, has to say about Arthur,” RelishMix says. “Other Arthur legend fanatics are dubious, wondering what elephants have to do with the round table – and if Merlin and Guinevere are in the story (editor’s note: they’re not). Many moviegoers are saying the film looks a little manic, and doesn’t seem to have settled on whether it’s a straight action-adventure, a prequel to the Arthur legend, or some new, bizarre take on the myth. Still, it’s worth mentioning that Charlie Hunnam gets plenty of discussion.”
On social, King Arthur had help from David Beckham, who appears in the movie as Trigger (everyone knows Trigger from the King Arthur legend, right?) and tubthumped the film to his 91.2M followers. Stars Hunnam and Jude Law are not socially activated, a complete promotional disadvantage for a movie that costs this much. Where is Dwayne Johnson when you need him? (Answer: He’s in Paramount’s Baywatch during Memorial Day weekend.)
To make up for their hole on social, Law and Hunnam did this promo for Comedy Central which drew 1.5M views.
Anecdotally, at a 6 PM showing Friday at Regal Cinemas in Canyon Country, CA, there were only 12 people in the 200-plus seat auditorium watching King Arthur, while the bulk of the multiplex was there to see GOTG2. Warner Bros will be glad to know that high praise for King Arthur came from the teenage usher ripping tickets (“Whoa, it’s really cool! That’s a good one!” — apparently he didn’t see John Boorman’s Excalibur) and an 11-year-old boy who thought Ritchie’s King Arthur was sublime.
Snatched is coming in within its mid-teen range, but many thought it could seriously tip toward $20M. We will see what happens tonight when its target demo always plans its night out at the movies. Without Schumer in the writers room and the Judd Apatow directorial touch on Snatched, critics and audiences can smell the difference (even though this movie was written by The Heat‘s Katie Dippold). CinemaScore here is a B compared with Schumer’s opus Trainwreck, which earned an A-, and Rotten Tomatoes is down at 37% Rotten for Snatched vs. Trainwreck‘s 85% certified fresh. Older women obviously came out for Snatched at 87% over 25, 73% females. Only the young ones who were the minority here thought it was over-the-top, with under 18 (6%) giving Snatched an A, and the 18-24 (6%) grading it an A-. Snatched made $5M yesterday and Sunday is expected to be down just 5% from today’s projected $5.8M.
Here are the May 12-14 weekend B.O. based off Saturday AM industry estimates:
1.). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 4,347 theaters / $16.6M Fri. (-70%)/ 3-day cume: $61.9M (-58%)/Total: $245M/ Wk 2
2.). Snatched (FOX), 3,501 theaters / $5M Fri. (includes $650K )/ 3-day cume: $16.5M/ Wk 1
3.). King Arthur (WB/VR), 3,702 theaters / $5.3M Fri. (includes $1.1M previews)/ 3-day cume: $14.3M/ Wk 1
4.) The Fate Of The Furious (UNI), 3,067 theaters (-528) / $1.4M Fri. (-36%) / 3-day cume: $5.4M (-36%) / Total cume: $215.1m / Wk 5
5.) The Boss Baby (Fox) 2,911 (-373), $960K (-29%)/3-day: $4.8M (-19%)/Total: $162.6M/Wk 7
6.) Beauty And The Beast (DIS) 2,172 (-508), $966K (-28%)/3-day: $4.2M (-16%)/Total: $493.5M/Wk 9
7). How To Be A Latin Lover (PANT/LG), 1,123 theaters (-80) / $819k Fri. (-39%)/ 3-day cume: $3.2M (-37%)/ Total: $25.6M/Wk 3
8.). Lowriders (OTL), 295 theaters / $911k Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.7M/ Wk 1
9). The Circle (STX/EUR), 2,132 theaters (-1,081) / $490k Fri. (-58%)/ 3-day cume: $1.8M (-54%)/Total:$19M/ Wk 3
10). Baahubali 2: The Conclusion (GINF) 359 theaters (-60) / $365k Fri. (-56%)/ 3-day cume: $1.46M (-57%) /Total:$18.9M/ Wk 3
The Wall (AMZ/RSA), 3,702 theaters / $306K Fri. / 3-day cume: $998k/ Wk 1
Paris Can Wait (SPC), 4 theaters / $23k Fri. / 3-day cume: $81K/ Wk 1
UPDATE, Friday 12:29 PM: Guy Ritchie’s King Arthur is not off to a royal start. Current weekend estimates from matinee figures show an industry forecast of $6 million for today, and $16.7M for the weekend, which is a lot of red ink for both Warner Bros and Village Roadshow, who’ve spent a combined $175M before P&A on this noisy disaster.
At this rate, King Arthur will lose second place to 20th Century Fox’s Snatched, which is looking at $6.5M for today and a high teens opening with a potential shot at $20M. The Amy Schumer comedy has a 37% Rotten Tomatoes score, which is far from her previous starring vehicle Trainwreck, which wowed at 85% certified fresh, however, we hear the movie is playing better with crowds than it does with critics. Trainwreck‘s critical acclaim pushed it to an awesome $30M debut off a $35M production cost, with audience giving it an A- CinemaScore. Snatched, produced by Chernin Entertainment, cost a tad more at $42M before P&A.
Disney’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 in its second session has No. 1 tied up with $62.1M, -58% (a similar decline to Captain America: Civil War at same point in its run) for a 10-day take of $245.3M, less than $90M shy from overtaking its first volume GOTG at the domestic B.O.
We’ll have more updates later.
PREVIOUS, 7:24 AM: Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword drew $1.15M last night in previews, a figure that’s significantly better than what another older male-skewing WB/VR bomb, In The Heart Of The Sea, earned in previews ($575K), and under that of both studios’ The Legend Of Tarzan ($2.55M), a previous classic IP.
King Arthur cost $175M before P&A and is not expected to be a bright spot in WB/VR’s box office annals, poised to earn only $25M stateside this weekend. Even if by some great miracle King Arthur opens to $40M, that still wouldn’t be considered a great start for this film. Warner Bros has been eager to make King Arthur since 2011 with the project going through at least two iterations. This version of King Arthur, scripted by Joby Harold, filmmaker Guy Ritchie, and Lionel Wigram, was originally expected to be a franchise, each sequel based on a character from the Camelot universe. King Arthur will easily be upset by the second weekend of Disney/Marvel’s The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2, which is set to generated between $63M-$72M sending the James Gunn movie over the $200M mark.
Yesterday, Guardians Vol. 2 easily dominated all titles with $7.2M and a week’s tally of $183.1M, 36% ahead of the first GOTG at the same point in time. That movie ended its U.S./Canada run at $333.1M.
20th Century Fox reports that Chernin Entertainment’s Goldie Hawn-Amy Schumer’s Snatched made $650K at 2,625 locations. That’s close to half of what Schumer’s previous vehicle Trainwreck, which she wrote and starred in, made on its Thursday with $1.8M before overperforming to an awesome $30M FSS. Snatched is beating King Arthur in advance ticket sales on Fandango; however, that is typical for a movie aimed at older-skewing females. They plan their trips to the multiplex, and just because the R-rated comedy is trending higher in pre-sales doesn’t necessarily mean it will slot No. 2. Tracking earlier this week had Snatched in the mid-to-high teens.
In regards to Thursday preview comps, Snatched beats Hot Pursuit ($450K Thursday, $13.9M opening) and The Other Women ($550K, $24.7M opening).
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