FINAL UPDATE, TUESDAY, 4:23 PM: This morning saw director Ted Melfi’s La La Land, which are vying for Best Picture Oscar nominations, are both expected to ultimately end up above the $100 million mark domestically at the box office, somewhere in the range of $115M-$120M. Both had very different (and deftly handled) rollout patterns given the particular elements of the film. Another commonality — audiences and critics love both films. Oscar noms come out on January 24 so expect box office boosts for all films nominated.get a nice boost on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday with this wisely timed rollout of what is now being seen nationwide by both sides of the equation as a patriotic film. 2oth Century Fox and Chernin Entertainment’s Hidden Figures and Lionsgate/Black Label Media’s musical
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Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story overall lost almost 1,000 theaters this weekend (and 150 Imax screens, specifically, to La La Land) in its fifth frame of play as a bevy of adult-targeted films just swarmed into the market either by expansions, holdovers or those that opened, which caused cannibalization between those films. Still, it got to the magic $500M+ number domestically.
Other films — including Patriots Day which (like Hidden Figures) garnered one of those rare A+ CinemaScores — were not so lucky. To read about those and our analysis of why, scroll past the following final Top 10 chart.
Next weekend sees three more films — Blumhouse’s psychological thriller Split, Paramount’s action sequel xXx: Return Of Xander Cage and The Weinstein Company’s Michael Keaton-starring The Founder — entering an already crowded market.
1.) Hidden Figures (Fox) 3,286 theaters (+815) / 3-day: $20.8M / 3-day per screen average: $6,346 / 4-day: $27.5M / 4-day per screen: $8,371 / Total: $61.8M / Wk 4
2.) Sing (ILL/UNI), 3,693 theaters (-262) / 3-day cume: $14.2M / 3-day per screen: $3,856 / 4-day: $19M / 4-day per screen: $5,152 / Total: $238.2M / Wk 4
3.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 1,848 (+333) / 3-day: $14.5M / 3-day per screen: $7,864 / 4-day: $17.7M / 4-day per screen: $9,588 / Total: $77M+ / Wk 6
4.) Rogue One (DIS), 3,162 theaters (-995) / 3-day cume: $13.4M / 3-day per screen: $4,259 / 4-day: $16.8M / 4-day per screen: $5,315 / Total: $501.89M / Wk 5
5.) The Bye Bye Man (STX) 2,220 theaters / 3-day: $13.5M / 3-day per screen: $6,082 / 4-day: $15.2M / 4-day per screen: $6.849 / Total cume: $15.2M / Wk 1
6.) Monster Trucks (PAR) 3,119 theaters / 3-day: $10.9M / 3-day per screen: $3,511 / 4-day: $14.1M / 4-day per screen: $4,544 / Total: $14.1M / Wk 1
7.) Patriot’s Day (CBS/LG), 3,120 theaters (+3,113) / 3-day: $11.6M / 3-day per screen: $3,722 / 4-day: $13.7M / 4-day per screen: $4,408 / Total: $14.67M / Wk 4
8.) Sleepless (OR) 1,803 theaters / 3-day: $8.3M / 3-day per screen: $4,628 / 4-day: $9.7M / 4-day per screen: $5,419 / Total: $9.7M / Wk 1
9.) Underworld: Blood Wars (Sony) 3,070 theaters / 3-day: $6.2M (-55%) / 3-day per screen: $2,022 / 4-day: $7.2M / 4-day per screen: $2,366 / Total: $25.3M / Wk 2
10.) Passengers (Sony) 2,447 theaters (-953) / 3-day: $5.3M / 3-day per screen: $2,185 / 4-day: $6.49M / 4-day per screen: $2,653 / Total: $90.8M / Wk 4
11). Moana (DIS) 1,847 theaters (-702) / 3-day: $4.3M / 3-day per screen: $2,334 / 4-day $6.1M / 4-day per screen: $3,305 / Total: $233.4M / Wk 8
12.) Live by Night (WB), 2,822 theaters (+2,818) / 3-day: $5.1M / 3-day per: $1,809 / 4-day: $6M / 4-day per screen: $2,127 / Total: $6.18M / Wk 4
Anita Busch compiled Tuesday PM’s report.
7th WRITETHRU, Tuesday AM: Hidden Figures had a phenomenal Monday for Fox and Chernin Entertainment, dropping only about 4% Sunday from Monday to push its four-day gross to an estimated $27.4M. Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story just surpassed $500M domestically after a four-day tally of roughly $16.6M, estimates show. Also reaping the benefit of yesterday’s push into theaters was Universal and Illumination Entertainment’s Sing, which dropped a mere 3% Sun. to Mon. to end its four-day gross with the No. 2 spot and $19M+; it’s cume sits at 238.4M. Stay tuned for the full Top Ten chart, including per screen averages, later today.
Anita Busch compiled Tuesday AM’s report.
6th WRITETHRU, Monday AM with updated chart, figures and analysis: Never before in recent memory have so many movies bombed in a given weekend at the box office. With Monster Trucks, Sleepless, Silence and Live By Night dead, and Patriots Day underperforming, this MLK weekend blows away the disasters seen during the October 23-25 weekend of 2015 when four titles tanked: The Last Witch Hunter, Jem And The Holograms, Rock The Kasbah and Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension.
In prior MLK weekends, there’s typically been one big tentpole that rules them all, i.e. American Sniper, Lone Survivor or Ride Along. But this year, the holiday weekend has turned into a dumping ground for adult-scale movies sans awards traction, plus some poor counter-programming plays. All in, it’s largely a cannibalistic marketplace with six wide entries, three of them that busted wide.
Some lackluster films like Sleepless and Monster Trucks were scheduled here because this is the last big moviegoing weekend before Presidents Day, when studios can pull the most amount of dollars out of moviegoers’ pockets.
On the other hand, movies hoping to be awards contenders are scheduled here because it’s about a week-and-a-half before Oscar noms, and the most ideal distribution plan might be to play into that potential heat. But for those titles, if you haven’t accumulated awards-season goodwill or great reviews already, you’re just dead. And even sadder is that there are a few passion projects here like Ben Affleck’s Live By Night, Martin Scorsese’s Silence, and Peter Berg’s Patriots Day, which aren’t finding big audiences.
An unfortunate outcome of this multi-release onslaught for the majors is that those holdovers which are posting decent numbers are kicked out of the multiplex as new titles comes down the pike. And even if the new title is just a flash-in-the-pan two-week disaster run (Monster Trucks, Live by Night), theater chains will still book them. For example, Why Him? was -31% last weekend, but exhibitors dumped 927 theaters this weekend, sending its currently theater count to 1,977 (this weekend the James Franco-Bryan Cranston comedy makes $3,3M over FSS, -52%).
In another bad case of attrition, Paramount’s Fences, in the wake of winning a best supporting actress Golden Globe for Viola Davis, saw a 1,026 reduction in its theater count from 2,368 to 1,342 (repping a 44% decline with $2.7M FSS in its fifth weekend and a running total of $46.5M. Fences’ reduction is due to various things according to those distribution sources with drill-down access to competitive theatrical data: Approximately 800 sites made less than $1K each last weekend, Hidden Figures was pulling away a substantial crowd, and exhibition was swayed to book the new titles, rather than continue to make space for the holdovers (Par had two wide releases this weekend – Silence and Monster Trucks).
Overall, according to ComScore, total 3-day tickets sales for the MLK holiday are at an estimated $148M, -13% from the same frame a year ago.
So, one by one, let’s go through some of this weekend’s openers and most notable expansions and see what’s faring well and what’s not:
Hidden Figures (Fox) It’s an easy No. 1 win of $25.9M to $26M+ over four-days, with the three-day take about down a mere -9% from its $22.8M wide break a week ago. The film is playing to all audiences with the makeup being 47% Caucasian, 37% African American and 10% Hispanic. On Saturday, the Taraji P. Henson-Octavia Spencer-Janelle Monae movie was up +54% over Friday; an amazing result as some saw the movie only moving up 30%. It’s a no-brainer why this film is excelling: A+ CinemaScore, 93% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes rating, and a string of recent noms including best PGA feature, WGA adapted screen, SAG best ensemble and supporting actress for Octavia Spencer. Fox further played into the spirit of MLK weekend by taking Hidden Figures even wider than last weekend with 815 more runs for a total of 3,286. This picture is clearly on its way to a $100M take when all is said and done.
Add to it that it had an ideal distribution schedule, rolling out slowly, building momentum and finding the right weekend in which to go wide — all coming together to catch heat right as Academy voters were putting in their ballots — and they like to see a winner at the box office. Weekend to weekend, the 9% drop is unheard of for films that have opened to $20M or more. Kudos to Fox’s distribution team, led by Fox’s President of domestic distribution Chris Aronson.
Most of the markets over-indexed, we’re told, and the only one that under-indexed was Miami where the market is getting inundated with daily front-page news and local network reports about the Ft. Lauderdale airport shooting.
We know behind the scenes that he Arnoson had to sell everyone on putting the film out in 25 theaters – a risky move, but not when you know that you have the goods and this picture was doing extremely test screenings.
“It’s gratifying to have film like this that works on so many levels,” said Aronson. “People are so moved by this picture. We are hearing anecdotal stories about people applauding in theaters. This movie entertains, it educates and it’s life affirming. The cast that Ted Melfi gathered together to tell this story were so good. And it’s a story that no one knew about and it’s about time it came out.”
Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One is finally showing signs that it’s human as it dips from No. 2 last weekend to No. 4 with $17.1M over four days and a B.O. benchmark as the 7th highest grossing film at the domestic B.O. with $502.2M. The movie will need to click past The Dark Knight‘s $534.9M to become the sixth highest title ever on the chart. Sing takes 2nd with $19M to $20M in the No. 2 spot over 4-days sending its running total to $238.3M to $239M. The animated feature has remained quite resilient over the last four weeks atop the charts–especially on a crowded weekend like this. Sing is approximately $12.5M from overtaking the domestic take of Illumination’s Despicable Me.
La La Land: Lionsgate’s original musical is looking at its highest weekend in its sixth frame run of between $17.5M and $17.8M in third place in four-day tallies to bring home a total cume of $77M+. While Patriots Day isn’t anything to wave a flag about, La La Land is the more popular choice with its collection of seven Golden Globes (it swept the awards show), SAG noms for leads Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, DGA and WGA noms for Damien Chazelle, and a PGA best feature nod. Lionsgate is wisely expanding right into and capitalizing on this heat, widening its theater count, but not too wide, from 1,515 sites to 1,848. This is how The Weinstein Co. titles like Silver Linings Playbook and The King’s Speech reached greater heights during their Oscar runs: By platforming the titles, not over-saturating them, so that there’s lingering demand around the country.
The whole idea was not to peak too early with Oscar voters and to build anticipation for the film which launched at the Venice Film Festival to critical acclaim and then gathered more and more accolades as it went to other festivals like Telluride and Toronto. “When we saw the film, we knew we didn’t want to launch it as a wide release because we wanted to build momentum. We knew that once the critics and the audiences saw the film, positive word-of-mouth would spread,” said Lionsgate’s president of domestic theatrical distribution, David Spitz. “Next weekend, we will add a handful more runs.”
Across the country, exhibitors have been asking for the movie since it logged that high per screen average on Dec. 9. The big challenge for Lionsgate’s distribution team, was to hold it back to do the right thing for the film so it could cut through the clutter and rise above to play across the nation. With a $176,221 per screen average on five screens that weekend, La La Land grabbed not only the highest per screen of the year for platformed release but also was the second-highest per screen for a limited release only behind Fox Searchlight’s phenom The Grand Budapest Hotel.
They rolled out from 5 screens to 200 screens the following week and then expanded over Christmas to 741 locales and then continued to add theaters after that. There is no good comp for La La Land so how Lionsgate handled this movie’s rollout was almost as original as the film itself.
In very early PostTrak polls for La La Land (this data has likely changed with the expansion), older females were leading the way to the Stone-Gosling combo at 64% females, 75% over 25 with a total positive score of 81% (either excellent or very good). 93% of the audience said they would recommend the film to a friend, indicative of the pic’s word of mouth engine. Forty-four percent came because they like musicals onscreen, while 28% were Gosling fans and 24% were Stone fans.
The Bye Bye Man‘s opening is now projected higher at $15.3M in 5th after a Friday of $5.4M. Here’s the true win: While a number of big budget films opened this weekend with big P&As, they fell under their tracking. But Bye Bye Man bested its $10M-$11M projection. STX identified its audience, created a campaign that spoke to them, and delivered something they wanted with a moderately priced and fun moviegoing experience.
Rivals acknowledge how well Bye Bye Man is over-performing (taking in $13.5M for the three-day), with insiders swearing that the pic’s production cost is a thrifty $7.4M before P&A. Should these figures hold up, I understand per a rival source that Bye Bye is bound to be in the black. Some attribute this goosed opening to the Friday the 13th release date, which some fans on social have observed per RelishMix. “Convo is pretty typical for a horror film,” said the social monitor, with Bye Bye’s universe at a moderate 18.6M across Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube views. By comparison, that universe size is on par with an indie like The Boy (23M) but trails a Blumhouse/Universal title Ouija 2 (82M). The Stacy Title movie gets a C CinemaScore which isn’t great for a horror movie; anything in the B range would be significantly better. STX gets their young female audience in bulk here at 56% females, 58% under 25.
Patriots Day (CBS/Lionsgate) With a four-day of $13.6M in 6th after a larger than expected decline yesterday, the collaboration of director Peter Berg and star Mark Wahlberg follows their lackluster Deepwater Horizon ($20.2M opening, $61.4M) and is nothing to boast about. Saturday was only up 6% while most other movies in the top ten made double digit percent gains or more. It’s an upset considering that many box office analysts thought this movie had a shot at No. 1 with a $20M-plus four-day juiced by some of the flyover state American Sniper crowd (through I hear NRG had Patriots Day much lower between $16M-$18M in its pre-weekend forecasts). And that A+ CinemaScore, the second this year after Hidden Figures, isn’t doing any daily word of mouth wonders. That grade carries a 4.8 multiple off 3-day openings which means Patriots Day could get around $40M+.
Two things are crimping the movie: The pic has had zero awards momentum with key orgs (except for being one of the National Board of Review’s top titles), and industry insiders feel as though audiences aren’t ready to relive the tragedy that occurred at the Boston Marathon less than four years ago, despite the fact that the film was sold on its human emotional elements. Berg acknowledged this to New York Times New England Bureau chief Katharine Q. Seelye; essentially critics in Boston are more critical of this movie than those in other parts of the country. (In its limited run though, analysts say the pic’s best grosses were in Beantown). Says Seelye in her piece, “But the hometown crowd is a tougher sell. They know the real events and people in granular detail. Some are offended that Saunders (Wahlberg’s character) is both made up and, implausibly, present at every key development.”
There are high stakes whenever these real-life national tragedies are painted on the screen. World Trade Center and United 93 were released five years following 9/11, with varying results. Directed by Oliver Stone, World Trade Center opened to $18.7M and ended at $70.3M stateside (that’s when Nicolas Cage opened movies), however, no one wanted to relive United 93 which opened to $11.5M FSS and finaled stateside with $31.5M.
One thing that should be mentioned about Patriots Day is that it may not see as much red ink as Deepwater because it cost $40M after incentives, 63% less than that $110M action-drama before P&A. Most of the media spend here comes from spots on CBS. Even with all that value added, Patriots Day still trails the spends by Live By Night and Monster Trucks, says one-well-placed film media buyer.
Except for the 35-49 crowd who gave Patriots Day an A, the movie earned an A+ in every category. Eighty-four percent of the audience came out for the subject matter (A+), while 30% bought tickets because they’re Wahlberg fans (A+). We’ll see if all these good grades impacts ticket sales as the weekend goes on. Overall, 84% over 25 turned up, 53% males.
Reports RelishMix, “Like Deepwater, what’s notable is simply how controversial these pictures are. There are numerous Facebook posts from USA Today and other reputable sources asking about the fact checking, the attention to detail and whether this story needed to be told this way.”
Monster Trucks Before Paramount even released this movie, Viacom wrote it off at $115M. According to accounting rules, once a film starts accruing debt, it can be registered in the red in the books, especially when revenue isn’t going to come. Given that, a studio doesn’t throw good money after bad money when it comes to damaged goods, and Paramount saw well in advance that trucks do not have the same impact as Transformers at the box office.
Hence, if by some reason Monster Trucks became a complete hit this weekend, that would stir a slew of Wall Street observers to say “Hey!”. That was never going to happen, so here Monster Trucks sits parked within its tracking range of $12M-$14M with $14.6M estimate over four-days in 7th (Paramount thinks it will kick to $15M today). Pic gets an A CinemaScore tonight; which, again like Patriots Day, has a lot to do with what regions of the country this movie was polled in.
Prior to the weekend, RelishMix reports, “Monster Trucks is reaching its target audience of parents with small children, many of whom are saying how excited their son will be to see this movie in theaters. While convo is light in its volume compared to other family animated movies, overall, it’s positive. However, it’s interesting to see the audience discussing the $125M budget for Monster Trucks, as if they are suspicious that such an expensive endeavor doesn’t have a more recognizable cast and/or a more favorable release date. The Trucks convo is another indicator of how smart today’s audience is when it comes to ultimately buying tickets.”
CinemaScore shows dads with their sons buying tickets at 53% males, 55% under 18.
Sleepless (Open Road) If there was an attempt to pull in the African American audience with this title, well that doesn’t make any sense when there’s a crowdpleaser like Hidden Figures in the market. Jamie Foxx plays a guy who takes justice into his own hands when his family has been wronged. It just screams Law Abiding Citizen all over again ($21M opening, $73.3M), and of course, moviegoers know this and that’s why only some of them spent an estimated $9.5M over four-days on this $30M production this weekend. (Open Road thinks it will hold stronger today — and it could be right — and come in with a four-day total of $9.89M) That puts it at 8th. Rivals have had it consistently throughout the weekend at around $9.5M-$9.7M over FSSM. On a three-day basis of $8.1M, this is Foxx’s lowest opening of the last 10 years. One distribution czar screamed Friday, “If the whole point of Open Road is to supply its investors AMC and Regal with a steady supply of titles throughout the sleepy points of the year, then why are they releasing this movie during one of the most crowded weekends ever?!” Sleepless gets a B+ CinemaScore, but looks worse on PostTrak with a 77% total positive score (and that org polls throughout the entire weekend).
Live By Night (WB) At a reported $65M, Ben Affleck’s feature adaptation of Dennis Lehane’s novel set around a Boston gangster during Prohibition, is more expensive than Argo which cost $44.5M. At $5.7M over four days it’s outside the Top 10 at No. 12. (Warner Bros. think it can end the weekend with $6.1M). And it took a larger than expected drop yesterday. With $5.1M over three days, the only good news here is that the movie isn’t Gigli rock bottom ($3.7M opening), rather around the low depths of 2000’s Boiler Room ($5.7M) in Affleck’s filmography. Given Affleck’s Oscar pedigree, Warner Bros. intended to prop this during awards season, but the film didn’t catch on with the Broadcast Film Critics, and it was all downhill from there as film reviewers piled on with a 32% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
I hear Affleck is very proud of this movie, from its performances down to its set design, and he’ll continue to make more ambitious fare. But Live by Night is unfortunately just another example, like Paramount’s poor Allied (61% fresh, $12.7M opening, $40M domestic), of how period films are impossible to launch when they lack a groundswell of champion critics. And if the weekend has a motif, it’s that you’re largely as good as dead at the B.O. when you’re not in the awards conversation. One insider thought maybe Live by Night should have been released at a different time of year and sold as a mere pulpy gangster movie (Warner Bros. did open its non-awards contender Gangster Squad to $17M and made $46M during the same weekend four years ago). But then again, the limited New York and L.A. business indicated immediately that audiences weren’t impressed, and that’s further underscored by the pic’s B CinemaScore tonight. 50% turned up for Affleck, 16% for Sienna Miller, Elle Fanning and Zoe Saldana with the 25-34 age group at 19% actually enjoying the movie with an A-. But lots of old men buying tickets here at 88% over 25, 44% over 50 with guys at 54%.
Silence isn’t that wide at 747 locations, but it’s wide enough to show that outside New York and Los Angeles, the two-hour-and-forty-one minute Martin Scorsese Roman Catholic passion project isn’t working at $2.35M for the four-day and $1.99M for its three-day, well outside the top 10. It’s not a western, but a philosophical reflection on the boundaries of theology. That’s pretty deep for the average multiplex denizen and without any key awards glamour to speak of, neither upscale nor regular moviegoers are apt to show up. Should Silence, by chance, earn some key Oscar noms, that could nudge its ticket sales slightly, but the deck is currently stacked against this film in its national expansion. Paramount was smart to get the Vatican and the Jesuits’ endorsement for this pic early, not only to erase the stigma left by Scorsese’s The Last Temptation of Christ among some Christian moviegoers, but to also launch the film to foreign audiences who are more attracted to auteurs than American audiences. Silence carries a production cost of $40M, before P&A.
Here’s the Top Ten Chart and some Notables (Anita Busch reported the Monday AM Write-thru):
1.) Hidden Figures (Fox) 3,286 theaters (+815) / $5.5M Fri. / $8.5M Sat. / $6.45M Sun. / $4.85M Monday / 3-day: $20.8M (-10%) / 4-day: $25.9M to $26M+ / Total: $60.3M to $60.6M / Wk 4
2.) Sing (ILL/UNI), 3,693 theaters (-262) / $2.9M Fri. / $6.2M Sat. / $5M Sun. / $5.7M Mon. / 3-day cume: $14.2M (-31%) / 4-day: $19M to $20M / Total: $238.3 to $239M / Wk 4
3.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 1,848 (+333) / $4.1M Fri. / $5.8M Sat. / $4.6M Sun. / $3.2M Mon. / 3-day: $14.48M (+43%) / 4-day: $17.5M to $17.8M / Total: $77M+ / Wk 6
4.) Rogue One (DIS), 3,162 theaters (-995) / $3.2M Fri. / $5.7M Sat. / $4.8M Sun. / $3.29M Mon. / 3-day cume: $13.36M (-40%) / 4-day: $17.1M / Total: $502.19M / Wk 5
5.) The Bye Bye Man (STX) 2,220 theaters / $5.54M Fri. / $4.8M Sat. / $3.1M Sun. / $1.6M Mon. / 3-day: $13.5M / 4-day: $15.3M / Wk 1
6.) Monster Trucks (PAR) 3,119 theaters / $2.6M Fri. / $4.6M Sat. / $3.6M Sun. / $3.6M Mon. / 3-day: $10.8M / 4-day: $14.6M / Wk 1
7.) Patriot’s Day (CBS/LG), 3,120 theaters (+3,113) / $4.1M Fri. / $4.3M Sat. / $3.1M Sun. / $2M Mon. / 3-day: $11.6M (+10,968%) / 4-day: $13.6M / Total: $14.45M / Wk 4
8.) Sleepless (OR) 1,803 theaters / $3M Fri. / $3.1M Sat. / $2.1M Sun. / $1.29M Mon. / 3-day: $8.1M to $8.3M / 4-day: $9.5M+ / Wk 1
9.) Underworld: Blood Wars (Sony) 3,070 theaters / $1.7M Fri. / $2.5M Sat. / $1.8M Sun. / $1M / 3-day: $5.29M (-55%) / 4-day: $7.2M / Total: $25.3M / Wk 2
10.) Passengers (Sony) 2,447 theaters (-953) / $1.5M Fri. / $2.2M Sat. / $1.5M Sun. / $1M Mon. / 3-day: $5.3M (-36%) / 4-day: $6.4M / Total: $90.75M / Wk 4
11). Moana (DIS) 1,847 theaters (-702) / $801K Fri. /$1.89M Sat. / $1.58M Sun. / $1.78M Mon. / 3-day: $4.2M / 4-day $6M / Total: $233.3M / Wk 8
12.) Live by Night (WB), 2,822 theaters (+2,818) / $1.95M Fri. / $1.88M Sat. / $1.2M Sun. / $830K Mon. / 3-day: $5.1M (+18500%) / 4-day: $5.7M / Total: $5.9M / Wk 4
Silence (PAR), 747 theaters (+696) / $658K Fri. / $744K Sat. / $579K Sun. / $300K Mon. / 3-day: $1.99M (+311%) / 4-day: $2.3M / Total: $3.4M / Wk 4
20th Century Women (Annapurna/A24) 29 theaters (+19) / $87K Fri. / $122K Sat. / $106K Sun. / $75K Mon. / 3-day: $316K (+141%) / 4-day: $390K / Total: $834K / Wk 3
Moonlight (A24) 582 theaters (+447) / $296K Fri. / $437K Sat. / $360K Sun. / $298K Mon. / 3-day: $1M (+240%) / 4-day:$1.4M / Total: $14.9M / Wk 13
Industry estimates as of Saturday, Jan. 14:
1.) Hidden Figures (Fox) 3,286 theaters (+815)/$5.5M Fri (-28%) /$3-day: $19.6M (-14%)/4-day: $25.3M/Total: $60.5M/Wk 4
2.) Sing (ILL/UNI), 3,693 theaters (-262) /$2.9M Fri.(-44%) /3-day cume: $13.4M (-35%)/4-day: $18.2M /Total: $237.5M/Wk 4
3.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 1,848 (+333) /$4.1M Fri (+32%)/3-day:$13.9M (+38%)/4-day:$16.9M/Total:$76.4M/ Wk 6
4.) The Bye Bye Man (STX) 2,220 theaters /$5.5M Fri/3-day:$14.5M /4-day:$16.3M/Wk 1
5.) Rogue One (DIS), 3,162 theaters (-995)/$3.3M Fri. (-46%)/ 3-day cume: $12.9M (-42%)/4-day:$16.1M/Total: $501.2M/Wk 5
6.) Patriot’s Day (CBS/LG), 3,120 theaters (+3,113) /$4.1M Fri (+11,071%) /3-day: $12M (+11,900%)/4-day: $14.2M/Total: $15.1M/Wk 4
7.) Monster Trucks (PAR) 3,119 theaters / $2.6M Fri. / 3-day: $10.1M / 4-day:$13.5M / Wk 1
8.) Sleepless (OR) 1,803 theaters / $3M Fri. / $3M Sat. 3-day:$8.5M /4-day:$9.9M/Wk 1
9..) Underworld: Blood Wars (Sony) 3,070 theaters /$1.7M Fri (-65%)/3-day: $5.8M (-57%)/4-day: $6.8M /Total:$24.9M/ Wk 2
10.) Passengers (Sony) 2,447 theaters (-953) / $1.5M Fri (-44%)/3-day: $5.375M (-39%)/4-day: $6.5M /Total:$90.9M/ Wk 4
11.) Live by Night (WB), 2,822 theaters (+2,818) /$1.9M Fri. (+23,650%) /3-day:$5.6M(+21,528%)/4-day:$6.5m/Total: $6.5M/ Wk 4
Silence (PAR), 747 theaters (+696) /$657K Fri. (+330%) /3-day:$2M (+317%)/4-day: $2.4M/Total: $3.5M/ Wk 4
20th Century Women (Annapurna/A24) 29 theaters (+19) /$87K Fri (+110%) /3-day: $293k (+125%)/4-day:$355K/Total: $799K/Wk 3
Moonlight (A24) 582 theaters (+447) /$289K Fri (+200%) /3-day: $1.1M (+41%)/4-day:$1.3M/Total: $14.8M/Wk 13
2ND UPDATE, Friday 12 Noon: Midday matinees are in and judging off of them, 20th Century Fox’s Hidden Figures is poised to take its second No. 1 win over the MLK weekend four-day with $24M-$25M from 3,286 theaters, 815 more sites than last weekend. Friday for the Ted Melfi-directed title is expected to wind up at an estimated $6M,
Everything in spots 2 through 5 is looking tight, and I’m told that if there’s a case of a four card monte shuffle, it’s here. With $4M today, Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is currently projected in second with $17M over FSSM with the pic crossing the five-century mark on Monday with $502M+.
CBS/Lionsgate’s Patriots Day about the Boston Marathon bombing is looking at $4.5M today with an estimated $16M over four-days. Let’s remember that Deepwater Horizon, the last Peter Berg-Mark Walhberg combo had a blase start at $20.2M. Note, after rebates, Patriots Day cost 63% less than Deepwater, $40M to $110M before P&A. Patriots will try to hold back Illumination/Universal’s Sing which is also looking to come in around the $16M range.
Though ranking right behind, Lionsgate’s La La Land propelled by a huge amount of awards season traction, will see its largest weekend haul to date in its sixth frame with $14M at 1,848 sites after a $3.2M Friday. Total cume by Monday will be at $73.6M.
Out of the new wide entries, STX’s The Bye Bye Man looks to be benefiting off its Friday the 13th opening date with a projected 4-day of $13.5M off a $7.4M production budget. Not too shabby.
Then there’s a lot of dead wood among those that dared to go wide or open this weekend:
Paramount’s having a lousy weekend with the $125M budgeted Monster Trucks set to go off the road with $2M today and $9.8M for FSSM while Silence goes wide at 750 sites with a paltry projected $2.3M over four; Martin Scorsese getting overlooked by the DGA for a passion project he took close to three decades to build about two Portuguese Jesuits who try to find their missing mentor in 17th century Japan. This despite all the good will from the Vatican that the movie received in its launch.
Warner Bros. Ben Affleck gangster movie Live by Night based on the Dennis Lehane novel is riddled with bullet holes on track for $2.5M and a $8.8M four-day weekend. The pic could not collect any awards season strength and was gunned down by critics with a 32% Rotten Tomatoes score. Jamie Foxx’s Sleepless from Open Road is asleep with $2.5M today and an estimated $8M for the weekend.
1st UPDATE: In one of the most crowded MLK weekends in years, a handful of movies aimed to put their best foot forward last night. Currently this morning, CBS/Lionsgate’s Patriots Day, which is expanding from seven Boston-Los Angeles-New York sites to 3,120 theaters today, grossed $560,000 from 2,000 venues that started showtimes at 7 PM.
That preview figure is a less than the $860K made by the previous Peter Berg-Mark Wahlberg collaboration, Deepwater Horizon ($860K Thursday, $7M Friday, $20.2M opening), back in October and just below Hacksaw Ridge’s $750K Thursday ($5.3M Friday, $15.1M opening). But unlike the weekends when those pics launched, the current FSS is primed by holiday business. Tracking earlier this week had Patriots Day in line for a $20M-$22M four-day opening, in a fight for No. 1 alongside 20th Century Fox’s Hidden Figures, which was No. 1 yesterday with $2M and a running cume of $34.4M, and Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which ranked third on Thursday with $1.7M and a running cume of $485M. The Gareth Edwards-directed prequel is headed toward $500M this weekend.
After a surprise win at the B.O. last weekend with $22.8M, Hidden Figures blasts from 2,471 sites to 3,286 today.
Lionsgate’s La La Land — even before its weekend expansion from 1,515 sites to 1,848 — was No. 2 yesterday with an estimated $1.8M, taking its five week total to $59.6M. After winning seven Golden Globes on Sunday, the pic’s director Damien Chazelle scored a DGA nom yesterday.
Open Road’s Jamie Foxx cop action title Sleepless drew $410K last night. Juxtapose this with Foxx’s White House Down, which made $1.35M from Thursday midnights; and keep in mind that movie flopped with a $24.9M opening and a tentpole cost of $150M (final B.O. global was $205.4M). Granted, Sleepless is much cheaper at $30M. Tracking earlier this week had the opening for the Foxx film between $7M-$8M at 1,800 locations.
STX’s PG-13 horror title The Bye Bye Man drew $400K last night, a figure that’s below the last PG-13 genre title Ouija: Origin Of Evil ($720k) and well below the Thursday nights posted by such PG-13 slashers as Lights Outs ($1.8M) and Insidious Chapter 3 ($1.55M). Tracking had Bye Bye in the $10M vicinity. Production cost for this pic directed by Stacy Title is at $7.4M, with STX having limited exposure as they co-financed with the Los Angeles Media Fund.
Warner Bros’ Ben Affleck 1920s gangster movie Live By Night goes from four New York and Los Angeles locations to 2,822. Pic held Thursday night previews and grossed $325K, which is 24% of the business that The Accountant posted on its first Thursday with $1.35M (that pic put up a $9.1M first day and $24.7M opening). Tracking has the $65M-budgeted production — Affleck’s biggest as director — opening at $10M stateside. Pic is also going out in a number of foreign territories this weekend including Russia and the UK.
Paramount’s CGI live-action kid pic Monster Trucks, which the studio has already written off to $115M months ago, rolls into a theaters today, but it didn’t hold any previews last night. Tracking is anywhere between $8M-$12M over four days.
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