UPDATE, Thursday AM: Having logged $15 million yesterday per industry estimates this morning, Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story has crossed the $200M mark at the domestic box office, becoming the fifth film ever to do so in six days alongside Batman V Superman, Iron Man 3, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and The Dark Knight Rises.
A big highlight in limited release: CBS/Lionsgate’s Peter Berg movie Patriots Day, which posted the best theater average Wednesday with $9,200 — or $64K at seven sites in NY, LA and Boston. Industry analysts expect Patriots Day to get a per theater over the six day of $75K.
Starring Mark Wahlberg, the movie follows Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis’ actions in the events leading up to the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and the aftermath, which includes the city-wide manhunt to find the terrorists. We heard very early on that this movie scored extremely well — bigger than Deepwater Horizon. That October release grossed close to $120M worldwide off a $110M production cost.
Rogue One‘s running cume of $205.3M is pacing 44% behind Force Awakens over the same number of days. That movie completely revitalized the Skywalker plotline and Star Wars saga under Disney, not to mention there were more kids off a year ago. On Wednesday, according to ComScore, K-12 schools off moved up from 38% to 46%, while those colleges on break move from 81% yesterday to 86%. Again, every day more audiences become available and starting this weekend all kids are off for the next week.
By the end of the year, Rogue One will definitely crack into the top 10 films, but many also anticipate Illumination/Universal’s Sing to also do so. The singing animal movie, which scored $1.7M in previews Tuesday night, minted $11M Wednesday at 4,022 venues in second place, which is lower than the $15.5M Thanksgiving Eve opening of Moana. Sing’s first day is strong; it just so happens there’s more moviegoers available the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.
20th Century Fox’s Assassin’s Creed notched ahead of Sony/Village Roadshow/LStar Capital’s Jennifer Lawrence-Chris Pratt sci-fi film Passengers, $4.6M to $4.1M. Passengers is in play at 3,478 venues. Essentially, the core female audience that would go see Passengers doesn’t come out until Christmas Day and beyond.
Essentially, box office analysts believe that Assassin’s Creed is front-loaded by the fanboy quotient. In regards to Passengers, which cost a reported $110M, I’m told that should the movie gross $45M-$50M in its first six days that should be fine, but anything under that would be tough sledding. At this point in time, there are several sources who aren’t impressed with the first day figures of either movie. We really need to let the weekend play out through to see where Christmas takes us. It is a six day-weekend.
PREVIOUS, Wednesday, 7:50 AM: ‘Rogue One’s Tuesday Sales Maintain Monday’s Strength; ‘Sing’ Hits High Notes
Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story made as much money Tuesday as it did on Monday: Essentially an estimated $17.7 million at 4,157 locations. Through yesterday, Rogue One counts $190.3M at the domestic box office, with the $200M mark within reach today.
Tuesday’s till for Rogue One is pretty remarkable considering a couple of factors: First, the number of K-12 schools off between Monday and Tuesday only inched up from 37% to 38%, with colleges on break increasing from 76% to 81%. Second, there was a trio of wide entries previewing.
Illumination/Universal’s Sing hit $1.7M at 2,570 locations, while 20th Century Fox’s Assassin‘s Creed grossed $1.35M from 2,470 locations, inching out Sony/Village Roadshow’s $110M sci-fi love story Passengers which made $1.2M at 2,400. Assassin’s Creed and Passengers started previews at 7 PM, while Sing started at 6 PM.
Sing’s preview is in the vicinity of other big original animation openers this year, read Moana ($2.6M, $15.5M opening day) and Zootopia ($1.7M, $19.5M opening day). Many expect Assassin’s Creed to do $30M-$35M in six days. Sing should do $70M over that stretch with Passengers per industry projections (not Sony) north of $40M.
Even though this comp is from a while ago and a bit apples-to-oranges, Assassin’s Creed previews beats the $665K that Resident Evil: Retribution made on its Thursday night from shows starting at midnight. Although released on a Friday in September, Retribution minted $8.3M on its opening day for a FSS of $21M.
There are fewer schools off now than there were during Force Awakens a year ago. Even though the number of K-12 schools off today grows to 46%, with 86% colleges per ComScore, these numbers hit their 100% peak starting Monday, December 26.
Rogue One‘s Tuesday looks to be the fifth-best ever after Force Awakens’ first two Tuesdays last year (December 22 and December 29), which grossed $37.3M and $29.5M, respectively, followed by Avatar’s December 29, 2009’s ($18.3M) and Les Miserables’ 2012 Christmas Day opening ($18.1M).
Among all top-grossing Tuesdays, Rogue One is currently slotting 11th.
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