Gold Derby’s Tom O’ Neil and I are back at the smackdowns for this year’s increasingly interesting and tight Oscar races, today having a back and forth, sometimes civil and sometimes not, conversation about the state of the Best Picture contest.

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Many critics’ groups have been having their say and the next phase, including Golden Globes and SAG nominations, is just about here.

So what are the chances of La La Land, Sully, Manchester By The Sea, Moonlight, Hell Or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge and others?

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Watch our chat above and check out our best guesses.