7th UPDATE, Monday, 1:44 PM: Without holdover The Jungle Book maintaining its dominance in theaters this weekend, the box office would have been in much sorrier shape than the the 53% drop compared to last year. That will all change on Thursday and through the weekend when another Disney movie comes into play: Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War which will set turnstiles spinning. The only question is how high it will go as it is tracking at around $190M going into the weekend and looks to be tracking a bit better than Ultron with females. Internationally, the third film in the franchise (and second thru Disney) already debuted to a tremendous $200.4M in its first weekend out. A mirror image performance in the states would top the $191.2M from last year’s beginning of the summer opener Avengers: Age of Ultron, which currently ranks as the No. 4 best opening of all time (behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World and Marvels’ The Avengers).
For the newbies this weekend, none of them connected with their core audiences. The best of the soft batch of newcomers was Warner Bros. and New Line’s kitty comedy Keanu which was able to pounce on only $9.6M for a No. 3 showing behind holder Huntsman. Here’s the tepid Top Ten prior to the doors of summer getting blown off by Team Cap and Team Iron Man:
1). The Jungle Book (DIS), 4,041 theaters (+13) / 3-day cume: $43.7M / Per screen average: $10,818 / Total cume: $253.3M / Wk 3
2). The Huntsman: Winter’s War (UNI) 3,802 theaters (+11) / 3-day cume: $9.6M (-51%) / Per screen: $2,530 / Total cume: $34.2M / Wk 2
3). Keanu (WB/New Line) 2,658 theaters / 3-day cume: $9.45M / Per screen: $3,557 / Wk 1
4.) Mother’s Day (OR) 3,035 theaters / 3-day cume: $8.36M / Per screen: $2,758 / Wk 1
5.) Barbershop: The Next Cut (WB), 2,310 theaters (-366) / 3-day cume: $6M / Per screen: $2,632 / Total cume: $44.6M / Wk 3
6). Zootopia (DIS), 2,487 theaters (-311) / 3-day cume: $5.3M / Per screen: $2,143 / Total cume: $323.8M / Wk 9
7.) Ratchet & Clank (GMY/FOC) 2,891 theaters / 3-day cume: $4.8M / Per screen: $1,684 / Wk 1
8). The Boss (UNI), 2,823 theaters (-552) / 3-day cume: $4.28M / Per screen: $1,519 / Total cume: $56.1M / Wk 4
9). Batman v Superman (WB), 2,330 theaters (-736) / 3-day cume: $3.8M / Per screen: $1,661 / Total cume: $325.19M / Wk 6
10). Criminal (LGF), 1,578 theaters (-1,105) / 3-day cume: $1.3M / Per screen: $853 / Total cume: $13.49M / Wk 3
11). My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (UNI), 1,092 theaters (-657) / 3-day cume: $1.1M / Per screen: $1,015 / Total cume: $57.29M / Wk 6
12). MET Pera: Elektra 2016 (FATHOM), 900 theaters / 3-day cume: $1M / Per screen: $1, 152 / Wk 1
13). Hologram for the King (RSA), 523 theaters (+122) / 3-day cume: $943K (-17%) / Per screen: $1,803 / Total cume: $2.5M / Wk 2
14). Green Room (A24), 470 theaters (+440) / 3-day cume: $926K / Per screen: $1,971 / Total cume: $1.3M / Wk 3
15). Eye in the Sky (BST), 614 theaters (-224) / 3-day cume: $909K / Per screen: $1,481 / Total cume: $16.4M / Wk 8
16). Compadres (LGF), 368 theaters (0) / 3-day cume: $650K (-53%) / Per screen: $1,769 / Total cume: $2.39M / Wk 2
17). God’s Not Dead 2 (PURE), 739 theaters (-429) / 3-day cume: $610K / Per screen: $827 / Total cume: $19.9M / Wk 5
18). Miracles from Heaven (SONY), 660 theaters (-604) / 3-day cume: $536K / Per screen: $813 / Total cume: $59.6M / Wk 7
19). Papa Hemingway in Cuba (YFG), 325 theaters / 3-day cume: $475K / Per screen: $1,462 / Wk 1
20). Hello My Name is Doris (RSA), 404 theaters (-92) / 3-day cume: $452K / Per screen: $1,114 / Total cume: $12.77M / Wk 8
6th UPDATE, Sunday 8:18 AM: With a roaring Saturday that saw attendance rise 92%, Disney’s The Jungle Book swung easily over the $250M mark this weekend to bring in another big $43.8M — outgrossing the next six pictures combined (including the openings of three newcomers). And this, in its third weekend of release. Disney will dominate the box office over the next few frames as well when Marvel title Captain America: Civil War marches into theaters next weekend. Captain America already stormed international markets this weekend to haul in $200M+ and the fan-crazed favorite is expected to pull in around $190M this coming weekend stateside.
Overall, box office is down about 50% versus the same weekend last year. However, according to comScore (previously Rentrak), it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison since the first Friday in May a year ago started the weekend when Avengers: Age of Ultron opened to a humongous $191.2M.
The Huntsman: Winter’s War ended up passing up newbie comedy Warner Bros./New Line’s R-rated kitty comedy Keanu last night squeaking ahead by a mere $100K to $200K to take the No. 2 spot. Universal’s second installment of its Huntsman franchise will cross $100M internationally this week and currently has a worldwide cume of $131M.
Of the three new titles this weekend, all managed a Top Ten showing, but the animated Ratchet & Clank lost its footing last night and fell two positions into the No. 7 spot with only $4.7M to $4.8M in its debut. The pic, based on a Sony PlayStation/Insomniac Game, couldn’t compete for the young male demo against The Jungle Book. Forty percent of the film’s demo was under 25 and the majority of males as well as those over 25 gave it only a B CinemaScore. The picture features the voices of Sylvester Stallone, John Goodman and Paul Giamatti.
Open Road’s Mother’s Day (with a 69% female demo and 54% of them over 25) ended up cracking the Top Five but failed to deliver on expected estimates prior to the weekend. It was tracking around $12M and it was expected to be the best of the bunch as it had some star power with Julia Roberts, Jennifer Aniston, Kate Hudson and Jason Sudeikis. Despite setting a good distribution date for counter-programming and despite 48% of the audience buying tickets because of the trio of actresses, the Garry Marshall picture just didn’t impress its core audience. They gave it a B+ CinemaScore. This release also comes after Open Road made a change in its marketing ranks.
1). The Jungle Book (DIS), 4,041 theaters (+13) / $10.2M Fri. (-38%) / $19.66M Sat. (+92%) / $12.5M to $13.9M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $43.8M / Total Cume: $253.5M / Wk 3
2). The Huntsman: Winter’s War (UNI) 3,802 theaters (+11) / $2.6M Fri. (-64%) / $4.26M Sat. (+60%) / $2.55M Sun. (-40%) / 3-day cume: $9.4M to $9.6M (-51%) / Total Cume: $34M / Wk 2
3). Keanu (WB/New Line) 2,658 theaters / $3.4M Fri. (includes $560K previews) / $3.67M (+7%) Sat. / $2.2M Sun. (-40%) / 3-day cume: $9.3M / Wk 1
4.) Mother’s Day (OR) 3,035 theaters / $2.7M Fri. (includes $225K previews) / $3.28M Sat. (+20%) / $1.98M to $2M Sun. (-38% to 40%) / 3-day cume: $8M+ / Wk 1
5.) Barbershop: The Next Cut (WB), 2,310 theaters (-366) / $1.6M Fri. (-47%) / $2.8M Sat. (+75%) / $1.58M Sun. (-45%) / 3-day cume: $6M / Total cume: $44.6M / Wk 3
6). Zootopia (DIS), 2,487 theaters (-311) / $1.2M Fri. (-30%) / $2.4M Sat. (+100%) / $1.3M Sun. (-45%) / 3-day cume: $5M / Total cume: $323.6M / Wk 9
7.) Ratchet & Clank (GMY/FOC) 2,891 theaters / $1.4M Fri. / $1.99M Sat. (+34%) / $1.3M Sun. (-34%) / 3-day cume: $4.7M to $4.8M / Wk 1
8). The Boss (UNI), 2,823 theaters (-552) / $1.18M Fri. (-38%) / $1.97 Sat. (+65%) / $1M (-45%) / 3-day cume: $4.2M / Total cume: $56.1M / Wk 4
9). Batman v Superman (WB), 2,330 theaters (-736) / $927K Fri. (-36%) / $1.78 Sat. (+93%) / $1.1M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $3.8M / Total cume: $325.2M / Wk 6
10). Criminal (LGF), 1,578 theaters (-1,105) / $366K Fri. (-61%) / $601K Sat. (+64%) / $358K (-40%) / 3-day cume: $1.3M / Total Cume: $13.4M / Wk 3
5th UPDATE, Saturday, 11:05 PM: The Jungle Book is swinging high after a full day of moviegoing with a big 90% jump from last night, according to the latest estimates. That could push the Disney adventure film to around $43M in its third weekend and over the $250M mark. Newcomer Keanu performed about $600K under holdover The Huntsman: Winter’s War today and the two films are neck-and-neck as both are expected in around $9.5M this weekend. Of the two other weekend newcomers — Mother’s Day and Ratchet & Clank — the latter is off its estimates from Friday/Saturday morning and is expected to come in only around $4.8M. Mother’s Day is still on track for a $7.8M to $8M three-day. More to come in the morning.
Saturday and Sunday updated by Anita Busch
4TH UPDATE, WRITETHRU Saturday, 8:03 AM: Disney’s The Jungle Book is on its way to make $38.8M in its third weekend, -37% off from a week ago with a running cume by Sunday of $248.5M. That’s a great gross considering most schools are back in session according to ComScore with 7% off on Friday and everyone back in class on Monday. In its third Friday, JB is counting $10.3M, -38%.
This weekend marks the eighth time this year that Disney will hit the No. 1 spot with JB. May 14-16 counts as weekend 20 in the calendar, and by that time, it’s safe to say that Disney will have topped exactly half (10) of 2016’s weekends thanks to Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Zootopia, The Jungle Book and Captain America: Civil War (the latter is a slam dunk next weekend with a projected $180M-$200M followed by a definite grip at the top spot during its second sesh).
Three titles aimed at varying demos – Open Road’s Mother’s Day with older females, Warner Bros./New Line’s Keanu with guys and Gramercy/Focus Features’ Ratchet & Clank with young boys – were hoping to profit off their cheap budgets and get a leg-up as counterprogramming before Civil War breaks out, but they’re all being suffocated by Jungle Book. In fact, JB is making more in its third FSS than those titles ranked in spots No. 2 through No. 6. Currently, Keanu with $9.1M is going to place No. 2 with Huntsman: Winter’s War following and -54% in its second weekend with an estimated $8.85M) for second place.
Who wouldn’t want to be in business with a pair of Comedy Central’s biggest stars, Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key coming off their hit Emmy-nominated show Key and Peele? New Line, which has a tradition of making edgy low budget comedies, specifically targeted guys with Keanu and shelled out $15M before P&A for this movie. But they didn’t populate auditoriums. CinemaScore reports that Keanu pulled in 53% guys, 71% over 25. They both gave Keanu a B, however the under 18 crowd (8%) loved it with an A+, while the under 25 (29%) graded the comedy an A-.
WB focused more on digital versus traditional TV spending (nonetheless, iSpot.TV shows that the studio spent the most out of the wide entries with an estimated $16.7M in media buys). In regards to what didn’t work here, rival sources blame one of the primary Keanu one sheets, that of the kitten in the do-rag. Why put the cat on the poster over a pair of popular comedians? “It’s weird,” criticized one rival studio exec over how the marketing didn’t click for him — that includes the title, too. Nonetheless, this R-rated action comedy went over well with critics at 77% fresh, a group that’s hard to impress with this genre. It usually takes time for TV comedians to resonate on the marquee, and it’s not over for Key and Peele. Forty-one percent of the crowd showed up to Keanu tonight because they are Key and Peele fans. They have plenty in the works. If Keanu does a 4 or 5 multiple, the studio will likely be over the moon with a guaranteed afterlife in home entertainment. Adam Sandler didn’t exactly fill theaters in his first three solo efforts — Billy Madison, Happy Gilmore and Bulletproof — before becoming a B.O. star with New Line’s The Wedding Singer. CinemaScore is a B just like another action comedy that starred Key, Let’s Be Cops (opening $17.8M, domestic $82.4M, prod. Cost $17M) … but that played during the summer.
Mother’s Day lands a B+ CinemaScore, the same as director Garry Marshall’s predecessor New Year’s Eve, but with a much lower weekend than the 2011 holiday title ($13M opening, domestic $54.5M) with a $2.7M Friday for an estimated three-day of $7.8M. Females showed up at 79% (B+) with 86% 25 and up (B+). Moms over 50, who turned up at 53%, loved the Marshall movie with an A-, and the young-uns digged it as well with the under 25 at 14% giving it an A-. Hopefully that gives Mother’s Day some momentum heading into the holiday next Sunday when daughters and moms make a beeline for the cinema. However, it’s obvious audiences can smell that this formulaic all-star holiday romantic comedy is a case of wash, rinse, repeat. “The problem with these movies is that there’s too many characters for audiences to make an emotional investment in,” criticized one rival studio executive. Why make it? Actors love Marshall tremendously, and the director can get them to show up. Look who Marshall hooked here: Jennifer Aniston, Kate Hudson and Julia Roberts, and 48% bought tickets to Mother’s Day because of that billing. He has an excellent reputation for running a great set, and with a net price of $25M, there’s no practical reason why Mother’s Day shouldn’t be made. These star-driven comedies also make 50%-60% of their global haul abroad (Diamond Pictures sold foreign). The first Valentine’s Day was a success ($56.3M, $110.5M), and beat out its awful reviews at the B.O. with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 18%. The 2010 title was a tad outside New Line’s wheelhouse for edgy comedies, but it was a sensible greenlight in the wake of their 2009 all-star romantic comedy He’s Just Not That Into You working with $94M stateside. New Year’s Eve was a no brainer greenlight, but apparently here the producers had to go the indie route with Aperture Media Partners providing deficit funding, and Open Road taking U.S. rights.
Gramercy’s service deal, Ratchet & Clank is well below its high single digits with $5.8M to $5.9M. Unfortunately, JB has already called dibs on Ratchet & Clank‘s young male demo who turned up at 39% under 18 (who gave its best CinemaScore at B+) and 58% males. The pic is based on a Sony PlayStation/Insomniac Game that was popular in the early aughts. Despite its niche, Focus never quit this movie in tubthumping it. The distributor partnered with both brands to cross-promote Ratchet & Clank and the latest iteration of its video game (which hit store shelves on April 12). There was a Wonder-Con panel in LA with the voiceover coast comprised of Bella Thorne, James Arnold Taylor, David Kaye and the filmmakers. Hispanic media was targeted with a press day and Thorne appeared on Univision’s Despierta America. Broadcast media ran on Cartoon Network, Nick and Univision. There was also a “Junior Galactic Ranger” event in partnership with Google which included a screening, and a panel with film and videogame creators for 200-plus students ages 10-13 at the search engine’s Venice, CA location. There were also promos organized around the U.S. with regional youth science museums and middle school/elementary youth soccer programs.
On the arthouse side, The Hologram for the King’s expansion to 523 venues is giving it a -17% hold in its second weekend on its way to a 10-day cume of $2.5M. A24’s punk rock band horror title Green Room also widened from 30 to 470 hubs and is seeing a two fold increase in its third sesh with anywhere between $819K and $850K. A24 bought the film from Broad Green which financed it. Notable theater averages were earned by Xiao Lu Xue’s Finding Mr. Right 2 ($13K per screen) and IFC’s period mathematician biopic The Man Who Knew Infinity (with $14K per screen). Mother’s Day may not be working for moms and daughters on a wide scale, but Sony Pictures Classics’ The Meddler is suiting them just fine at arthouses with a $6K PTA. The Lorene Scafaria film has an 85% fresh Rotten Tomatoes rating and stars Susan Sarandon as a widowed mother who moves in with her successful screenwriter daughter played by Rose Byrne.
The top 10 films and notables for the weekend of April 29-May 1 based off of East Coast industry projections:
1). The Jungle Book (DIS), 4,041 theaters (+13) / $10.3M Fri. (-38%) / 3-day cume: $38.8M (-37%) / Total Cume: $248.5M / Wk 3
2). Keanu (WB/New Line) 2,658 theaters / $3.4M Fri. (includes $560K previews) / 3-day cume: $9.1M / Wk 1
3). The Huntsman: Winter’s War (UNI) 3,802 theaters (+11) / $2.6M Fri. (-64%) / 3-day cume: $8.8M to $8.9M (-55%) / Total Cume: $33M+ / Wk 2
4.) Mother’s Day (OR) 3,035 theaters / $2.7M Fri. (includes $225K previews) / 3-day cume: $7.8M+ / Wk 1
5.) Ratchet & Clank (GMY/FOC) 2,891 theaters / $1.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.8M to $5.9M / Wk 1
6.) Barbershop: The Next Cut (WB), 2,310 theaters (-366) / $1.6M Fri. (-47%) / 3-day cume: $5.5M (-47%) / Total cume: $44.1M / Wk 3
7). Zootopia (DIS), 2,487 theaters (-311) / $1.2M Fri. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $4.5M (-31%) / Total cume: $323M / Wk 9
8). The Boss (UNI), 2,823 theaters (-552) / $1.18M Fri. (-38%) / 3-day cume: $3.75M (-39%) / Total cume: $55.65M / Wk 4
9). Batman v Superman (WB), 2,330 theaters (-736) / $927K Fri. (-36%) / 3-day cume: $3.4M (-37%) / Total cume: $324.7M / Wk 6
10). Criminal (LGF), 1,578 theaters (-1,105) / $368K Fri. (-61%) / 3-day cume: $1.22M (-60%) / Total Cume: $13.3M / Wk 3
The Hologram For The King (RSA) 523 theaters (+122) / $275K Fri. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $945K (-17%) / Total cume: $2.5M / Wk 2
Eye in the Sky (BLST), 614 theaters (-224) / $241K Fri. (-31%) / 3-day cume: $838K (-30%) / Total cume: $16.3M / Wk 8
Green Room (A24) 470 theaters (+440) / $315K Fri. (+249%) / 3-day cume: $819K to $850K (+290%) / Total cume: $1.2M to $1.5M / Wk 3
Compadres (PANT) 368 theaters / $145K Fri. (-67%) / 3-day cume: $540K to $600K (-60%) / Total cume: $2.25M / Wk 2
Papa Hemmingway in Cuba (YFG) 300 theaters / $135K Fri. / 3-day cume: $435K to $585K / Wk 1
Finding Mr. Right 2 (ASIA) 35 theaters / $150K Fri. / PTA: $13K / 3-day cume: $453K / Wk 1
Elvis & Nixon (AMZ/BLST) 310 theaters (-71) / $53K Fri. (-60%) / PTA: $611 / 3-day cume: $190K (-59%) / Total cume: $875K / Wk 2
The Meddler (SPC) 24 theaters (+20) / $43K Fri. (+203%) / PTA: $6K / 3-day cume: $153K (+160%) / Total cume: $240K / Wk 2
The Man Who Knew Infinity (IFC) 6 theaters / $25K Fri. / PTA: $14K / 3-day cume: $80K / Wk 1
A Beautiful Planet (IMAX) 137 theaters / $28K Fri. / PTA: $488 / 3-day cume: $66K / Wk 1
2ND UPDATE, 12:38PM: This weekend is definitely the calm before Disney Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War storm next Thursday. Based on afternoon matinees, Disney’s The Jungle Book is looking at a third No. 1 sesh of $35M-$36M, down 42% for a running cume by Sunday of $245.7M. This will take the Disney live action toon adaptation past Maleficent ($241.4M). Already Jungle Book has bested Cinderella ($201.2M) and will pace behind Alice in Wonderland‘s total cume by 7% through its third weekend. The Tim Burton title finaled its domestic total at $334.19M. Today, Jungle Book is making $9M-$9.5M down 44%.
Open Road’s Mother’s Day and Warner Bros./New Line’s Keanu are currently estimated to make $3.5M-$4M each today, however analysts are giving the lead to the older female skewing Mother’s Day with $11M compared to Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key’s Keanu which is looking at $10M. I would have put my money on Keanu breaking out given the duo’s cult fan base. It’s an R-rated comedy, and that under 25 crowd comes out during the late night. Particularly on a weekend, with only 2% of schools out right now, we’re not apt to see any action on Keanu from matinees.
Universal’s Huntsman: Winter’s War is set to decline 55% to 60% in its second weekend for $7.8M-$8.7M bringing its 10-day run at the high end to $33.3M. Gramercy/Focus’ Ratchet & Clank will go clunk with an estimated $6M-$7M. More updates late tonight.
1ST UPDATE, 7:40AM: Warner Bros/New Line’s Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key comedy Keanu started its weekend last night at 7 PM showtimes, making $560,000. The movie, the first big feature from the Comedy Central stars of Key & Peele is expected to ring up at least $10M at 2,658 theaters in another weekend where Disney’s The Jungle Book will continue to be king with at least $35M-$37M at the B.O.
Meanwhile, Open Road’s Jennifer Aniston-Julia Roberts-Kate Hudson all-star romantic comedy generated $225K last night. Pic’s prime demo in tracking has been women over 25 and it is expected to bank $12M at 3,035 theaters. Open Road acquired the movie, which reportedly cost a net $25M, back in July.
Yesterday, Jungle Book topped the Thursday box office with an estimated $3.76M, taking its two-week cume to $209.7M.
Keanu cost an estimated $15M, and with the stars having a heavy social presence, Warner Bros kept its marketing largely to a digital campaign so as to hit the comedy stars’ core. Out of the three films opening this weekend in addition to Gramercy Pictures’ Ratchet & Clank — Keanu has the largest social media universe per RelishMix of 60.5M across Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
In regards to the online conversation, RelishMix reports, “Like we all feel watching cat videos online, the convo for Keanu is very, very simplistic in nature. ‘Can’t f***ing wait’ and the like. Key & Peele’s fans are driving the convo, with plenty of references to the show and their favorite characters and lines. Cat fans are also joining the discussion — they can’t believe there’s an R-rated film about a kitten.” The Keanu video playlist on YouTube is one of the notable social drivers for the comedy, earning 2.5M views. Six of 14 Facebook videos are clicking 1M-plus. Key and Peele combined on their social channels, both personal and their Comedy Central show, account for 3.4M followers.
Critics typically get hives when it comes to R-rated comedies, but Keanu currently boasts a 77% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score.
Ratchet & Clank based on the early-aughts Sony PlayStation video game, should do in the high-single digits.
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