FINAL UPDATE, Monday 3:11 PM: There’s a consensus out there: Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War will be the highest-grossing live-action film of the summer, with a final domestic around $450M. The only other title to rival it for the season is Disney’s own Finding Dory.
Working in Disney’s favor is not only Civil War’s position on the calendar but the fact that it’s the biggest live-action brand this summer. The same can be said about Dory, which one analyst called “a five-quad film. It’s a long-awaited sequel to a beloved Pixar film that has something that no other animated film out there has — a situation not unlike Toy Story 3‘s”. That threequel arrived in theaters 11 years after Part 2 and went on to make $415M domestic and $1.06B worldwide. For Dory, it’s been 13 years since Finding Nemo, and if the 30 minutes that Disney showed at CinemaCon is any indication, Dory — about a blue tang fish (voiced by Ellen DeGeneres) who battles with short-term memory and searches for the parents she lost as a child — is going to be moving the masses emotionally in busloads.
“There aren’t that many highly anticipated sequels this summer,” remarked one non-Disney distribution chief. “There aren’t any mega franchise blockbusters like we’ve seen in previous summers with Transformers or a Dark Knight. Civil War is the only film like that.”
While many of the intriguing sequels that are dated such as X-Men: Apocalypse and Star Trek Beyond are expected to fare well, the B.O. history of these series has shown to expand and contract over time. For a reboot such as Ghostbusters or a possible franchise like Warner Bros.’ Suicide Squad (which has gained a significant amount of heat since dropping its “Ballroom Blitz” trailer at CinemaCon) to bust out and do $400M worth business, well, they would truly need to hit a zeitgeist, much in the way that Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy did in 2014 when it charted as the top-grossing title of that summer ($333.2M).
“It gets such a head start, and there’s nothing that’s going to catch up to it,” said one rival distribution chief about Civil War’s wise spot on the calendar, where it finaled with the fifth-highest domestic opening of all-time with $179.1M. Disney owns five of the top six all-time openings, four of them belonging to Marvel movies (The Avengers, $207.4M; Avengers: Age of Ultron, $191.3M; Civil War and Iron Man 3, $174.1M). In in the next week or so, Civil War will hit $1B worldwide; total cost all-in for production and P&A is factored at $430M, which was Ultron‘s price tag. Civil War definitely will be in the black from its theatrical release.
It’s a crowded summer, with wide releases spiking from 42 last summer to 51 this season. That translates to about three wide releases a weekend on average. Unlike any other title opening on the May-to-Labor Day schedule this year, Civil War was unopposed by any major studio wide competition. In addition, the Russo brothers movie will reap the benefits of the number of schools on summer break in the weekends to come: Today there’s 36% colleges off per comScore, a number that swells to 53% this Friday and to 84% on the Friday prior to Memorial Day. Even though there’s only 1% K-12 schools off on May 13, that number will surge to 33% over the same frame.
In fact, since last year with Avengers: Age of Ultron, Marvel won’t be introducing any stand-alone superhero character movies during the first weekend of May for some time. It’s all about superhero mash-ups. Next year at this time, there’s Guardians of the Galaxy 2 followed by Avengers: Infinity War – Parts I & II in 2018 and 2019.
And of course, working in Civil War‘s favor is its intense word-of-mouth fueled by an A CinemaScore (which when you divide up most of the Marvel film’s demos, many age groups gave it a A+), 90% Rotten Tomatoes fresh score (higher than Ultron‘s 75%), and a 75 MetaCritic score (higher than Avengers 69 and Ultron‘s 66).
Here’s how Civil War‘s weekend-to-weekend path will go down prior to Memorial Day. In its second frame, it is set to hold No. 1 with an industry-projected $72M, -60%, which is close to Ultron’s sophomore decline. The only studio wide entry is Sony’s adult-skewing Money Monster, which is currently tracking at $12.5M.
In its third sesh, May 20-22, Civil War will have a harder time for No. 1 with a mid-$30M take, tangling with Sony Animation’s Angry Birds and Universal’s R-rated Neighbors 2: Sorority Uprising, both of which currently are expected to do about $40M. Warner Bros has The Nice Guys, which is a domestic acquisition and currently projected at $10M.
Said comScore Senior Media Analyst Paul Dergarabedian of Civil War‘s blazing path this summer: “The film is a knockout and it has everything going for it, and once the word gets out that it’s really an Avengers movie in Captain America‘s clothing, the box office trajectory will only intensify. This is the dream film to kick off the summer of 2016; if you’re opening summer with a movie that falls with a thud, then there is a momentum lapse that can have a negative impact the bottom line of the overall marketplace. On the flip side, if Cap kicks ass for the long haul, films opening in its wake will have to hope that the audience base will expand to give them a shot at solid box office returns.”
As pointed out in the previous update, family pics like The Jungle Book and Zootopia as well as the female-skewing Mother’s Day were all the rage Sunday, gaining more B.O. traction as the male-targeted Civil War gave a little way.
The top 20 films of the first weekend of summer 2016, May 6-8, per ComScore:
1). Captain America: Civil War (DIS) 4,226 theaters /3-day cume: $179.1M / Per screen avg.: $42,390/ Wk 1
2). The Jungle Book (DIS), 4,144 theaters (+103) /3-day cume: $24.5M (-44%) / Per screen: $5,909/ Total Cume: $287.6M / Wk 4
3.) Mother’s Day (OR) 3,141 theaters (+106) / 3-day cume: $11.1M (+32%)/ Per screen: $3,530/ Total: $22.8M/Wk 2
4). The Huntsman: Winter’s War (UNI) 2,901 theaters (-901) /3-day cume: $3.9M (-59%) / Per screen: $1,361/ Total Cume: $40.7M / Wk 3
5). Keanu (WB/New Line) 2,681 theaters (+23)/ 3-day cume: $3.3M (-65%)/ Per screen: $1,226/ Total cume: $15.3M/ Wk 2
6). Zootopia (DIS), 2,077 theaters (-410) /3-day cume: $3.2M (-40%) / Per screen: $1,548/ Total cume: $328.2M / Wk 10
7.) Barbershop: The Next Cut (WB), 1,734 theaters (-576) /3-day cume: $2.8M (-54%) / Per screen: $1,617/ Total cume: $48.9M / Wk 4
8). The Boss (UNI), 1,933 theaters (-890) /3-day cume: $1.9M (-55%) / Per screen: $900/ Total cume: $59.3M / Wk 5
9). Ratchet & Clank (GMY/FOC) 2,895 theaters (+4)/3-day cume: $1.5M (-70%)/ Per screen: $505/ Total cume: $7.1M /Wk 2
10). Batman v Superman (WB), 1,593 theaters (-737) /3-day cume: $1.05M (-73%) / Per screen: $659/ Total cume: $327.3M / Wk 7
11). 24 (Tamil & Telugu) (CGX) 137 theaters /3-day cume: $981K/ Per screen: $7,164/ Wk 1
12). My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (UNI), 640 theaters (-452) /3-day cume: $646K (-42%)/ Per screen: $1,009 /Total cume: $58.3M / Wk 7
13). Eye in the Sky (BLST), 419 theaters (-53) /3-day cume: $561K (-38%)/ Per screen: $1,339 / Total cume: $17.3M/ Wk 9
14). The Hologram For The King (RSA) 400 theaters (-123)/ 3-day cume: $502K (-47%)/ Per screen: $1,256 /Total cume: $3.4M /Wk 3
15). Sing Street (TWC), 153 theaters (+49) /3-day cume: $438K (-36%) / Per screen: $2,864 /Total Cume: $1.1M/ Wk 4
16) Hello, My Name Is Doris (RSA), 287 theaters (-119)/3-day cume: $342K (-24%)/ Per screen: $1,192 /Total Cume: $13.3M/ Wk 9
17). Green Room (A24), 470 theaters (0) /3-day cume: $338K (-64%) / Per screen: $719 /Total Cume: $2.1M/ Wk 4
18). The Meddler (SPC) 53 theaters (+29) /3-day cume: $310K (+88%) / Per screen: $5,843/ Total cume: $629K / Wk 3
19). Criminal (LGF), 517 theaters (-1,061) /3-day cume: $299K (-78%) / Per screen: $579 /Total Cume: $14.3M/ Wk 4
20). Miracles From Heaven (SONY), 301 theaters (-359) /3-day cume: $244K (-55%)/ Per screen: $810 /Total cume: $60.1M / Wk 8
A Bigger Splash (FSL) 5 theaters/ 3-day cume: $114K / Per screen: $22,884/ Total cume: $138K /Wk 1
Phantom Of The Theater (WLGO) 26 theaters/ 3-day cume: $21K / Per screen: $808/ Wk 1
Dheepan (IFC) 2 theaters/3-day cume: $20K / Per screen: $10,124/ Wk 1
Dark Horse (SPC) 3 theaters/3-day cume: $14K / Per screen: $4,613 /Wk 1
Band Of Outsiders (RIA) 2 theaters/3-day cume: $13K / Per screen: $6,626 /Wk 1
Being Charlie (PAL) 4 theaters/3-day cume: $12K / Per screen: $2,968 /Wk 1
Belladonna Of Sadness (IND) 2 theaters/3-day cume: $8K / Per screen: $4,184 /Wk 1
7TH UPDATE, Monday 7:48 AM: Sunday’s business turned out to be more female and family driven than expected, shaving some muscle off the opening of Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War, but keeping the threequel tough enough for the fifth best domestic opening all-time with $178M, ahead of Iron Man 3‘s $174.1M. “Still sensational,” exclaimed a non-Disney distribution chief. Disney was expecting $181.8M for Civil War, however the industry was expecting a slightly bigger weekend of $182.5M as of yesterday. This is according to competitive industry reports this morning. Disney will be providing their actual figures later today. Civil War was expected to reign in a $45.4M Sunday, down 26% from Saturday, but posted a $42.3M Sunday.
Turning out stronger: Disney’s own Jungle Book with a $23.7M fourth weekend in second and Open Road’s Mother’s Day which clocked between $11M, an awesome 32% hike over its $8.3M opening. 10-day cume stands at $22.8M. Despite that silver lining, many predict the romantic comedy will be in free fall next weekend. Mother’s Day turned in a $5.6M Sunday, +60% over Saturday. We’ll have more analysis for you later today.
6TH WRITETHRU, Sunday AM: Disney’s Captain America: Civil War cashed in the fifth highest opening at the domestic B.O. with $181.8M, and along with the studio’s huge fourth weekend success of Jungle Book at $21.8M, and Zootopia beating Batman v Superman, Disney clears the $1B mark at the domestic B.O. ($1.121B to date) in 128 days, shattering the previous record set last year of 165 days.
Disney has what most major studios would kill for: Big franchise brands. And Marvel just keeps delivering and reinventing itself. The first weekend of May is no longer a place to introduce a new superhero. No, the first weekend of May since last year with Avengers: Age of Ultron is about big superhero teams and the brawls that ensue. Civil War is the second title like this, and then we have Guardians of the Galaxy 2 to kick off summer 2017 followed by Avengers: Infinity War – Parts I & II in 2018 and 2019. When it comes to launching frosh faces from the deeper vaults of Marvel, the prime times are the off summer months (Doctor Strange in November, Black Panther on Feb. 16, 2018), plus whenever a space opens itself up during the deep summer (mid July last year for Ant-Man, first weekend of August for GOTG).
Civil War‘s weekend business reps 77% of the total weekend’s $235M ticket sales per ComScore. Compared to the first weekend of 2015’s summer, when Ultron opened, this frame was +1%, but a whopping +79% over last summer’s second weekend when Hot Pursuit deep sixed. This year’s total ticket sales stand at $3.87B through today, currently pacing ahead of last year which as we all know ended with an all-time record of $11B.
Commenting on Marvel’s streak at the B.O., Disney distribution chief Dave Hollis exclaimed, “When you think of the storied nature of the film business and that four of the top six (domestic) openings of all-time come out of the Marvel universe within an eight-year period — that’s 13 movies combined for nearly $10B worth of box office – it’s a testament to the entire creative team at Marvel Studios led by Kevin Feige. They’ve established an interlocking universe that’s unprecedented and unparalleled in entertainment today with a collection of gifted filmmakers and talent who are invested in the overarching vision of the MCU.”
Yesterday, Civil War minted a better than expected Saturday of $61M, eclipsing Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s $56.5M second day last year and ranking as the fifth highest Saturday of all-time. By EOD today, Civil War is poised to hit $678M worldwide. Within a couple of weeks, $1B worldwide is definitely within shot, essentially $300M more than Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Lots of black ink here in Civil War‘s theatrical run after a $250M production cost and an estimated global P&A near Ultron’s $180M.
On ComScore’s PostTrak, which continually polls moviegoers throughout the weekend, Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be. Audience make-up of Civil War per ComScore is 66% guys to 34% females, with 51% over 25. Ultron was more female at 38% and younger at 55% under 25. Ethnicity breakdown for Civil War was 48% Caucasians, 19% Hispanic, 18% African American and 16% Asian/other according to ComScore.
Domestically, Captain America: Civil War grossed $16M on 380 Imax screens, for a $42K per screen average. The weekend is a second-best for a Disney/Marvel release, after Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $18.2M.
Other golden gooses for Disney this weekend include Jungle Book‘s fourth frame cashing in $21.87M in No. 2 while Zootopia takes sixth place with $2.7M. The Disney Animated feature will overtake Warner Bros.’ Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice as the second highest grossing movie of 2016 with $327.6M to the DC superheroes’ $327.25M. Disney also has the fourth highest grossing movie of the year with Jungle Book at $285M and the fifth highest with Civil War.
With Disney occupying the first two slots on the weekend chart, Open Road is benefiting from its shrewd distribution decision of dating Garry Marshall’s romantic comedy Mother’s Day a week in advance of the May holiday. Mother’s Day looks to make $9M in its second sesh, an 8% hike over its $8.3M opening. Pic was in play in 106 more theaters than last week with a total of 3,141 runs. That’s excellent, and even though the grosses are in the high single digits here, it’s a percent change that no distribution chief in the world would gripe about. Ten-day cume is $20.7M.
Said Open Road CEO Tom Ortenberg in a statement, “Audiences are loving Garry Marshall’s holiday comedy and the Mother’s Day holiday certainly rallied the audience for the movie in its second weekend. We are thrilled with this weekend’s results.”
Among studio classic labels, Fox Searchlight had the Italian-France production A Bigger Splash which grossed $110K over the weekend, with $134K since its Wednesday opening for a $22K per theater from five NYC/LA auditoriums. Searchlight did the same thing last year, appealing to the arthouse crowd in the face of a Marvel movie with Far From the Madding Crowd which made $165K in 10 venues. A Bigger Splash will expand to five new markets (Boston, Philadelphia, Wash DC, Phoenix, and Chicago) next weekend as well as upticks its NY and LA counts, bringing the total play for this title to 25 theaters.
To give you an idea of the social media momentum for Civil War: RelishMix reports that the Avengers social media universe on May 1 last year stood at 740M (129M FB, 33M Twitter and 579M YouTube views) and that over the last year as the drum banged for Civil War, that total count grew by 211M to 951M. Civil War‘s standalone SMU stands at an exceptional 581.3M (82.4M FB, 13.5M Twitter and 485.4M YouTube Views.
The Civil War teaser was unveiled on Jimmy Kimmel Live! by Chris Evans and Robert Downey Jr. and it was viewed 61M times online in the 24 hours following the broadcast. Civil War also trailered on Star Wars: The Force Awakens. A worldwide payoff trailer was dropped on March 10, revealing Spider-Man and garnering 94M views in 24 hours. That trailered on Batman V Superman.
Disney dropped a Civil War trailer during the Super Bowl pre-show, and out of all the movie spots that aired, the Russo brothers title reaped the most social media activity in the 24 hours following the Big Game with an additional 13.2M.
Relish Mix says, “One of the reasons Captain America: Civil War has such a strong SMU is Disney’s heavy cross-promotion across its own properties. Walt Disney Studios is linking and posting hashtags related to Civil War right along ‘May the 4th Be with You’ for Star Wars and continued efforts for Jungle Book. This is an obvious social tactic yet rarely deployed because of political issues for films from multiple creators. So we see materials being pushed to over 80M fans/followers. Otherwise, the effort would be closer to 49M…As we have seen with other films featuring the Avengers, the whole effort is coordinated and leveraging the millions of fans the Marvel films have earned from the previous films.”
Top trailers and clips for Civil War are clocking well over 100K a day with an earned-0wned ratio (how often the trailer is passed around) of 15:1, which is the rate a summer tentpole like this should have in terms of its online shock waves.
Civil War also has a stellar socially engaged cast. Even Samuel L. Jackson, who was featured in other Marvel movies but who isn’t in Civil War, is posting material to his 10M fans.
#CaptainAmerica, #TeamCap and #TeamIronman hashtags moved from 3K a day on Monday to over 60K by midweek. Disney deployed a special Twitter Mobile Only campaign that polls whether you are TeamCap or TeamIronman. This was launched following the Super Bowl spot. Your vote is then retweeted with a quick video reply with cast members Evans, Anthony Mackie, Paul Bettany, Chadwick Boseman, Paul Rudd, Elizabeth Olsen as well as Stan Lee himself; it’s been a hot viral item. Relish Mix noticed that Civil War promo partners – Audi, Coca-Cola and Pizza Hut — are also joining in on the fun with the big Team Cap/Team Iron Man question. Other promo partners include Kellogg’s, Pop Secret, Samsung, Wrigley’s, and Synchrony.
Civil War‘s social star is Downey, Jr., who counts 42.4M social followers across FB, Twitter and Instagram. Every time he posts something on Instagram, he receives tens of thousands of likes. Evans has 10.3M, while Jeremy Renner has a 5M reach. Scarlett Johansson and Elizabeth Olsen aren’t socially engaged with their own personal accounts. To the campaign’s credit, Anthony Mackie was featured on Good Morning America doing an effort with the troops and this was shared across all platforms and relevant pages.
Other marketing highlights for Civil War include a major ESPN partnership with custom spots featuring SportsCenter talent choosing Team Cap or Team Iron Man. Outsized Facebook partnerships with Facebook Live streams hosted by the Russo brothers and other Civil War stars, showcasing worldwide fandom and dueling teams during global talent tour.
The top 10 films and notables as compiled by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka for the first weekend of summer 2016, May 6-8.
1). Captain America: Civil War (DIS) 4,226 theaters / $75.3M Fri. (includes $25M previews) / $61.1M Sat. (-18%) /$45.4M Sun. (-25%) /3-day cume: $181.8M / Wk 1
2). The Jungle Book (DIS), 4,144 theaters (+103) / $5.7M Fri. / $9.7M Sat. (+71%) /$6.5M Sun. (-34%) /3-day cume: $21.9M (-50%) / Total Cume: $285M / Wk 4
3.) Mother’s Day (OR) 3,141 theaters (+106) / $1.9M Fri. /$3.53M Sat. (+84%) /$3.56M Sun. (+1%) / 3-day cume: $9M(+8%)/Total: $20.7M/Wk 2
4). The Huntsman: Winter’s War (UNI) 2,901 theaters (-901) / $963K Fri./ $1.5M Sat. (+55%) /$1.1M Sun. (-25%) /3-day cume: $3.6M (-63%) / Total Cume: $40.36M / Wk 3
5). Keanu (WB/New Line) 2,681 theaters (+23)/ $935K Fri. /$1.3M Sat. (+39%) /$845K Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $3.1M (-67%)/ Total cume: $15.1M/ Wk 2
6). Zootopia (DIS), 2,077 theaters (-410) / $700K Fri./ $1.3M Sat. (+87%) /$665K Sun. (-49%) /3-day cume: $2.7M (-50%) / Total cume: $327.6M / Wk 10
7.) Barbershop: The Next Cut (WB), 1,734 theaters (-576) / $680K Fri. / $1.1M Sat. (+65%) /$900K Sun. (-20%) /3-day cume: $2.7M (-56%) / Total cume: $48.8M / Wk 4
8). The Boss (UNI), 1,933 theaters (-890) / $461K Fri. / $730K Sat. (+58%) /$554K Sun. (-24%) /3-day cume: $1.7M (-59%) / Total cume: $59.1M / Wk 5
9). Ratchet & Clank (GMY/FOC) 2,895 theaters (+4) / $337K Fri./ $643K Sat. (+91%) /$482K Sun. (-25%) /3-day cume: $1.5M (-70%)/Total cume: $7.1M /Wk 2
10). Batman v Superman (WB), 1,593 theaters (-737) / $295K Fri. /$455K Sat. (+54%) /$295K Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $1.05M (-73%) / Total cume: $327.25M / Wk 7
11). 24 (Tamil & Telugu) (CGX) 180 theaters / $311K Fri./ $424K Sat. (+36%) /$297K Sun. (-30%) /3-day cume: $1.03M/ Wk 1
The Meddler (SPC) 53 theaters (+29) / $71K Fri. / $125K Sat. (+76%) /$98K Sun. (-21%) /3-day cume: $294K (+79%) / Total cume: $609K / Wk 3
A Bigger Splash (FSL) 5 theaters/ $31K Fri. / $50K Sat. (+62%) /$28K Sun. (-44%) /PTA: $22K / 3-day cume: $110K / Wk 1
Just The 3 Of Us (ABS) 70 theaters/ $67K Fri. /$95K Sat. (+42%) /$67K Sun. (-30%) /3-day cume: $229K / Wk 1
Dheepan (IFC) 2 theaters/ $6K Fri. /$9K Sat. (+53%) /$7K Sun. (-25%) / PTA: 11K /3-day cume: $22K / Wk 1
Phantom Of The Theater (WLGO) 25 theaters/ $8K Fri. /$8K Sat. (-2%) /$5K Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $21K / Wk 1
Dark Horse (SPC) 3 theaters/ $4K Fri. /$6K Sat. (+69%) /$5K Sun. (-16%) /3-day cume: $15K / Wk 1
4TH WRITETHRU, Saturday AM: Captain America: Civil War is looking at an estimated $74.9M opening day, for a $172M-$178.8M opening according to industry estimates this morning. If it comes in any higher than Iron Man 3’s $174.1M, Civil War will be the fifth highest opening of all time. Anything lower makes it sixth.
Civil War gives Disney five of the six top domestic openings of all-time led by their Lucasfilm Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.97M), No. 2 belonging to Universal’s Jurassic World ($208.8M).
Disney always saw the opening for this Marvel title around $175M, while the industry pushed Civil War toward the $190M-$200M range. Nothing is broken here in the Marvel universe. Sequelitis just comes with the territory of big branded franchise movies. Make no mistake, this is a healthy start to the summer. To say that Civil War is falling beneath projections is petty, particularly when grosses are this high. Tracking can never predict how big these openers can go based on a small statistical sampling, particularly when their first choice – unaided awareness – is flying off the chart. Given the slight ebb in Civil War and Ultron openings, yes, it does put a little pressure on Marvel execs to make their 2018 and 2019 superhero mash-ups Avengers: Infinity War Part I and II something that’s significantly more special, just to keep the core excited and to maintain lines around the block. But still, no level-headed studio executive is going to cry over a Civil War opening this high, nor the fantastic fan and critical reception that Civil War has received.
Even though Civil War’s ranks behind Avengers ($207.4M) and Age of Ultron ($191.3M), it’s the highest opening for a Captain America film, which saw its openings uptick from its first installment of $65M, to Winter Soldier ($95M) to Civil War. That’s another way of looking at Civil War‘s opening.
The Russo brothers-directed threequel cost a reported $250M, which is the same pricetag as Ultron. That film, fueled by an estimated $180M global marketing budget cleared $1 billion worldwide, minting a net profit of $382M-plus. By Sunday, non-Disney B.O. analysts believe that Civil War will have amassed close to $600M worldwide, having already cleared $300M overseas today, and debuting in China, Argentina and Russia this weekend. Ultron grossed over $240M from its China theatrical release alone.
Civil War‘s Friday is armed with $25M from Thursday previews. One scenario for Civil War’s weekend goes down as follows: a -20% dip Friday into Saturday for $59.6M today. That’s better than the -33% Friday-to-Saturday decline for Ultron which went from $84.4M to $56.5M. However, this Captain America is quite hot, and that word of mouth could still carry this film to higher grosses.
Look at the following: Civil War hit an A CinemaScore, a 74% definite recommend from ComScore, an 86% total positive score and a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. Avengers received an A+, but Civil War has the same CinemaScore as Ultron, and Captain America: Winter Solider. In fact, looking under Civil War‘s hood, it looks like the Russo brothers movie came within inches of an A+ since it hit that high grade with females (40%), under 18 (22%), 18-24 (18%), 25-34 (24%), under 25 (40%), and the blue hairs (50+ turned up at 11%). It was both males at 60% and the over 25 bunch (60%) who both gave Civil War A’s.
Warner Bros./DC’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice didn’t have all these golden tea leaves, despite adding fresh faces into its cinema universe (Wonder Woman, Aquaman) just like Civil War with Spider-Man 3.0 and Black Panther. Hence, look for solid holds in the weeks to come for Civil War, particularly as the amount of schools and colleges on summer break swell. Twenty one percent colleges were off yesterday, which raises to 36% on Monday.
Huge want-to-see CinemaScores here: 64% came out because it was a Marvel movie, 54% because it was a superhero title, while 39% cited either Robert Downey Jr. or Chris Evans, and 24% smitten by Scarlett Johansson.
Ultron turned in a 2.4 multiple finaling at $459M stateside, so that gives you an idea where Civil War is heading. In regards to multi-quad threats, Civil War isn’t going to sweat until Memorial Day weekend when 20th Century Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse and Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass get into a big brawl. One non-Disney distribution czar predicted that by the end of May “Civil War will have already made $400M.”
All together Disney is set to make $204M-plus off of three titles in the top 10: Civil War in first, Jungle Book in second with a fourth frame take of $22.8M and Zootopia in fifth place with $3.3M during its 10th go-round. Add up all three titles’ total running cumes by Sunday and that equals over $792.9M at the domestic B.O.
Whenever a studio has something they know is gonna work, they show it, they don’t hide it, and Disney proudly unveiled Civil War to an excellent response from exhibitors and press at CinemaCon last month, in addition to the first 30 minutes of Finding Dory. Also spurring heat were Twitter “demand it” screenings in 25 markets with surprise talent appearances. Also stoking fans were Ultimate Captain America Marathons at 75 theaters nationwide (all five films from Captain America to Avengers).
After adding 106 theaters, Open Road’s Mother’s Day will have the best week-to-week hold in the top 10 of a -16% for $7M as it profits from the holiday tomorrow. Julia Roberts received a lot of heat in the media recently for not being able to open this film. As we all know, stars alone no longer open movies, and the pairing of concept to star is more crucial than ever in terms of a project’s livelihood at the B.O. Mother’s Day was a recipe that many moviegoers had seen before with Valentine’s Day and New Year’s Eve. That’s why audiences stayed away. Mother’s Day was never intended to be the Civil War of ensemble female skewing romantic comedies. Furthermore, the estimated P&A on this film was thrifty – significantly less than a major studio movie in the $20M vicinity. The same more or less could be said about STX’s/IM Global’s Secret in Their Eyes. It didn’t matter who starred in that movie; it was panned by critics (39% Rotten Tomatoes) during the do-or-die awards season at the B.O. when an adult drama needs reviewers’ blessings. When Roberts was paired with a bestselling piece of chick lit, Eat Pray Love, it debuted to $23M and had a 3.5 multiple of $80.6M. That wasn’t so long ago. So, Mother’s Day had nothing to do with Roberts, not to mention the film was squarely sold as an ensemble. And since it skewed much older, essentially the same size crowd is coming this weekend, as they did last. To say that Roberts’ days are over from when she could carry a movie is inept. Pretty Woman, Erin Brockovich all these B.O. bonanzas were 16 to 26 years ago, a pre-viral/digital age when marquee draw truly meant something. There are a number of stars from that time who can no longer carry a movie on their shoulders. Roberts is in a different phase of her career, and unfortunately it’s always a different tale for actresses than actors in this business. And as far as a Roberts vs. Sandra Bullock comparison, the latter has reaped the spoils of an Oscar win that has brought largely decent A-grade material her way (i.e. Gravity).
Fox Searchlight’s mystery drama A Bigger Splash starring Tilda Swinton, Ralph Fiennes and Dakota Johnson, is looking at a first FSS of $109K at five combined NYC and LA venues for a per theater that’s $21K-plus.
The top 10 films for the weekend of May 6-8, the first weekend of summer 2016 as of Saturday AM based on industry estimates:
1). Captain America: Civil War (Disney) 4,226 theaters / $74.9M Fri. (includes $25M previews) / 3-day cume:$172M– $178.8M / Wk 1
2). The Jungle Book (DIS), 4,144 theaters (+103) / $5.4M Fri. (-48%) / 3-day cume: $22.8M (-48%) / Total Cume: $285.9M / Wk 4
3.) Mother’s Day (OR) 3,141 theaters (+106) / $1.9M Fri. (-32%) / 3-day cume: $7.06M (-16%)/Total: $18.8M/Wk 2
4). The Huntsman: Winter’s War (UNI) 2,901 theaters (-901) / $955K Fri. (-64%) / 3-day cume: $3.6M (-63%) / Total Cume: $40.3M / Wk 3
5). Zootopia (DIS), 2,077 theaters (-410) / $702K Fri. (-44%) / 3-day cume: $3.3M (-37%) / Total cume: $328.2M / Wk 10
6). Keanu (WB/New Line) 2,681 theaters (+23)/ $924K Fri. (-73%) / 3-day cume: $3.1M (-67%)/Total cume: $15.1M/ Wk 2
7.) Barbershop: The Next Cut (WB), 1,734 theaters (-576) / $671K Fri. (-59%) / 3-day cume: $2.6M (-57%) / Total cume: $48.7M / Wk 4
8). The Boss (UNI), 1,933 theaters (-890) / $461K Fri. (-62%) / 3-day cume: $1.7M (-60%) / Total cume: $59.1M / Wk 5
9). Ratchet & Clank (GMY/FOC) 2,895 theaters (+4) / $333K Fri. (-78%) / 3-day cume: $1.4M (-71%)/Total cume: $7M /Wk 2
10). Batman v Superman (WB), 1,593 theaters (-737) / $291K Fri. (-69%) / 3-day cume: $1.2M (-69%) / Total cume: $327.4M / Wk 7
11). 24 (Tamil & Telugu) (CGX) 180 theaters / $302K Fri./ 3-day cume: $991K/ Wk 1
The Meddler (SPC) 53 theaters (+29) / $71K Fri. (+65%) / 3-day cume: $289K (+76%) / Total cume: $609K / Wk 3
Just The 3 Of Us (ABS) 70 theaters/ $67K Fri. / 3-day cume: $219K / Wk 1
A Bigger Splash (FSL) 5 theaters/ $31K Fri. / PTA: $21K / 3-day cume: $109K / Wk 1
Phantom Of The Theater (WLGO) 25 theaters/ $8K Fri. / 3-day cume: $24K / Wk 1
Dheepan (IFC) 2 theaters/ $6K Fri. / PTA: 10K /3-day cume: $20K / Wk 1
Dark Horse (SPC) 3 theaters/ $4K Fri. /3-day cume: $13K / Wk 1
2nd UPDATE, 12 PM: Captain America: Civil War‘s matinees are tracking 10%-13% behind Avengers: Age Of Ultron, putting the Disney/Marvel title on track for a $75 million-$80 million Friday and a projected weekend at this point of $178M-$188M. While that’s under Ultron‘s $191.27M, man, it’s really not something to cry about. Should Civil War hook that opening, it will make it the fifth-best domestic opening of all time ahead of Iron Man 3‘s $174M. A big plus for Disney this weekend: 21% of all colleges are off, a number that moves up to 36% on Monday, and then 53% next Friday.
Rival distribution chiefs are rejecting the notion that Disney’s The Jungle Book is biting into Civil War‘s business by stealing families away. A lot of that has to do with the size of Civil War‘s opening. “When Force Awakens opened to $248M, did Alvin and the Chipmunks bite into its opening? I don’t think so,” beamed one non-Disney distribution czar. Currently in its fourth frame, Jungle Book is set to make $21M, down 52% for the weekend. Between Civil War and Jungle Book, Disney is looking at $209M, plus some lagniappe from Zootopia. Open Road’s Mother’s Day likely will benefit from the Sunday holiday with a 30% decline, the best of last weekend’s wide entries, for $5.85M and a 10-day total of $17.6M.
In regard to opening days, Civil War is poised to rank as the sixth or seventh highest ever and the third best in May behind Ultron ($84.4M) and The Avengers ($80.8M).
PREVIOUS, 8:39 AM: Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War fired up summer’s cylinders last night with $25 million, making it the second-highest Thursday night preview among Marvel titles behind last year’s Avengers: Age Of Ultron which minted $27.6M. Industry projections have the opening for the Russo brothers-directed movie between $180M-$200M at 4,226 locations. Civil War is the only film on this year’s summer schedule to open unopposed by any major studio competition.
There’s a divide among B.O. analysts over whether Disney has an embarrassment of riches at the box office right now. Some think that the fourth-frame success of The Jungle Book at an estimated $20M-plus weekend could cut into Civil War‘s business. But then there are others who believe the Captain America threequel is iron strong, and has the potential to hit the upper echelon of its industry projection. Through three weeks, Jungle Book is at $263.1M stateside.
Last year at this time, Ultron went on to post the highest opening day in May with $84.4M. Among the highest opening weekends of all-time, Disney Marvel’s Avengers ($207.4M) and Ultron ($191.27M) own the third and fourth ranks. Imax hubs generated $3.1M for Civil War, besting the $3M made by Ultron in its opening night.
Among superhero Thursday night previews, Warner Bros.’ The Dark Knight Rises owns the record with $30.6M from midnight shows.
Civil War‘s theater count is not a high for May; that figure belongs to Paramount’s Iron Man 2 which was released in 4,380 locations on May 7, 2010.
Through Thursday, Civil War has already stacked up $291.2M in Disney’s coffers from its first week abroad. As it debuts in Russia, China and Argentina in sync with stateside this weekend, it will cross $300M today.
In the wake of Warner Bros. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, which was met with bitter fanboy and critical reaction contributing to its slowdown at the domestic B.O., Civil War has reaped a tremendous amount of buzz following its industry and CinemaCon screenings last month. The pic’s Rotten Tomatoes score is fresh at 92%, equally matched with the first 2012 Avengers.
Subscribe to Deadline Breaking News Alerts and keep your inbox happy.