From here on in, every weekend during the summer is going to be crowded, with an average of three movies opening per weekend. This Friday, there’s Sony/Rovio Entertainment’s Angry Birds, Universal’s Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising and Warner Bros.’ 1970s Shane Black movie The Nice Guys. However, Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War is going to toss all of ’em away from No. 1.
Industry estimates figure that Civil War could reap anywhere from -30% to -40% in its third frame decline giving it a FSS in the high $30M to low $40M range, though higher than Angry Birds and Neighbors 2 which are looking to make $35M-$40M apiece.
By Friday, ComScore reports that 77% of all colleges will be on summer break, up from 53% last Friday. That figure moves to 82% by Monday. So the majors will have access to that twenty-something crowd. Kids in grades K-12 are still in session at 96%.
Through 11 days, Civil War counts $300.7M at the domestic B.O. and is pacing 6% behind Avengers: Age of Ultron at the same point in time.
Warner Bros.’ The Nice Guys, could experience a similar Cannes Film Festival halo effect that Money Monster experienced last weekend after its premiere on the Grand Theatre Lumiere. The Jodie Foster film was projected to open around $10M but came in higher with a $14.78M opening, and that was off 55% Rotten reviews. Nice Guys currently has a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score from a handful of reviews, however, should the Ryan Gosling-Russell Crowe action comedy combo maintain that level, it could best its $10M opening weekend estimate. Warner Bros. acquired domestic rights on Nice Guys, so its exposure is quite limited. Bloom has foreign. Pic, which is a throwback to action comedies like Lethal Weapon, will play in an estimated 2,900 theaters with previews starting Thursday at 7 PM.
Angry Birds, based on the Rovio mobile game, has the benefit of being the only animated feature on the calendar until Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory arrives on June 17. Pic was fully financed by Rovio for a reported $73M and features the voices of Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Danny McBride, Bill Hader, and Maya Rudolph to name a few. Sony has a 7% distribution fee on Angry Birds and B.O. analysts expect this movie to play young, with a shot at mid-to-upper teens. Angry Birds will be in play in 3,900-plus venues with previews starting Thursday at 7 PM. Pic will also be shown in 3D. Angry Birds opened overseas last weekend and to date has a nest egg of $43M.
Neighbors 2 also got a head start on its theatrical run on May 5 in 34 offshore markets with a foreign B.O. of $21.4 million to date. The Nicholas Stoller-directed sequel also opens this weekend in Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Greece, Lebanon, Panama, Romania, Serbia & Montenegro, Ukraine and Venezuela. Stateside, pic will be booked at 3,382 locations. The first Seth Rogen-Rose Byrne-Zac Efron-David Franco movie turned in an opening of $49M and a 3x domestic multiple of $150.1M. Rogen and his producing buddies James Weaver and Evan Goldberg at Point Grey Pictures kept it cheap on Neighbors with an estimated $18M production cost which reaped a global B.O. of $270.7M. Neighbors 2 is slightly more expensive at $35M, but still a bargain basement cost by summer tentpole standards. In the sequel, Rogen and Byrne’s The Radners must now contend with a raunchy sorority as their neighbors, and enlist the help from their former enemy Teddy (Efron) to wage battle with their new annoyance.
Anita Busch contributed to this article