Relativity Media expects to turn cash flow positive in 2017, primarily due to contributions from 13 of 14 planned film releases — including Masterminds, Kidnap, The Crow, Hunter Killer, and Immortals 2 — according to a filing today at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court.
Outsiders almost never get to see a studios’ financial forecast, especially for specific releases. But Relativity needs to persuade the court to approve its reorganization plan to escape from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The matter will come before Judge Michael Wiles on Wednesday.
Relativity predicts it will end 2016 with a $51.6 million loss in cash flow (specifically EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) on $351.0 million in revenues. The Film unit will lose $33 million on $301.8 million in revenues. In addition, digital operations will be in the black by $19.1 million, while scripted TV and music contribute $6.8 million to cash flow.
But the company total will rise to positive $105.6 million in 2017 on $744.0 million in revenues. Film will have $84.7 million left after expenses from $539.0 million in sales.
And in 2018 Relativity expects to see $212.0 million in cash flow on $909.4 million in revenues. Film will have $160.5 million left from $772.3 million in revenues.
The company adds in a separate filing that Aperture Media Partners and EMP Media Partners agreed to jointly lead an effort to raise $250 million to fund advertising and marketing. It also expects to have $100 million in equity financing from an undisclosed source.
Here’s how the studio expects some of its the specific releases to do:
- Masterminds (to be released in September 2016) will generate $125.4 million in revenues for the studio over its lifetime, Relativity says, leaving at least $47.1 million after subtracting $78.3 million in distribution costs. It expects to incur no additional production expenses.
- Kidnap (May 2016) could see $85.6 million in lifetime sales, leaving nearly $29 million after taking out $56.7 million in distribution costs, also with no more production outlays.
- The Crow (February 2017) could have $107.7 million in lifetime sales, leaving $38.5 million after its $70.5 million in distribution costs — and adding $1.2 million in “reimbursement of previously invested funds.”
- Hunter Killer (April 2017) is forecast to have $124.3 million in sales, leaving $23.7 million after $96.6 million in distribution and $4 million in production costs for Relativity.
- The biggest film in the studio’s projections, Immortals 2 (November 2017) could see $146.1 million in lifetime sales, leaving $28.1 million after its $119.3 million in distribution costs — but adding $1.3 million from “foreign pre-sales and overages that exceed the net budget.”
- Secret Scripture (December 2017) is the only film Relativity expects to end up with a loss. Its $4.5 million in lifetime revenues would be overwhelmed by $4.4 million in distribution costs, and $1.5 million in production expenses.
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