It’s not the same as that 15 minutes that will supposedly save you 15% on car insurance, but 15 minutes may be all it takes to predict which new TV shows are most likely to make the cut to return next season, if Peel Smart Remote App data is as accurate this year as it was in 2014.
This season’s top 5 new shows holding on to an average of 70.2% or more of their viewers for 15 minutes were Limitless (CBS) with 73.8%, Rosewood (Fox) with 73.3%, Blindspot (NBC) at 72.5%, The Muppets (ABC) with 72.2% and Grandfathered (Fox) with 70.2%.
Last year, Peel contends the majority of shows that retained 70% or more of their viewers for at least 15 minutes during debut episodes were renewed. Peel says it combs data from 12 million monthly active U.S. users of its app that turns Apple and Android smart phones and tablets into universal remotes for TVs, DVRs and other devices.
New shows whose futures don’t seem so bright this early in the game, based on Peel’s data, are ABC’s Blood & Oil with 60% of viewers sticking around for 15 minutes of the first episode, Fox’s Minority Report with 62.9%, CBS’ Life in Pieces at 63.3% and NBC’s The Player (65%).
Some of the shows that didn’t fare so well in the Peel data enjoyed Nielsen ratings that looked promising, but viewers defected to other shows before that crucial 15-minute threshold. Peel’s app also can not only tell when viewers tune out, it knows where those viewers go. CBS’s Life In Pieces, for example, saw 21.2% of its audience switch to NBC’s The Voice, while another 7.9% tuned in to ABC’s Dancing With The Stars and 6.1% each to Fox’s Gotham and CW’s Penn & Teller: Fool Us.
Some shows that fell shy of the 70%/15-minute benchmark might still stand a chance. AMC’s Fear The Walking Dead held onto a respectable 69.8% of its viewers for 15 minutes. Fox’s Ryan Murphy horror-comedy Scream Queens (66.5%) ranked second-highest (17.7%) behind Blindspot (18.1%) among viewers “favoriting” the show or setting reminders to catch the second episode.
Other series debuts in that middle to high 60s share of people sticking with the show for 15 minutes were NBC’s Heroes Reborn (66.3%), ABC’s Quantico (66.6%), Fox’s The Grinder (67.1%) and NBC’s The Carmichael Show (67.6%).