According to Gold Derby founder Tom O’Neil, at this point in the Oscar race—remember, the actual event isn’t until February 28—19 Oscar pundits are split between seven films.
Here’s Tom’s take on the current standings:
Spotlight, Thomas McCarthy’s docudrama about the 2001 scandal over sex abuse by Catholic priests in Boston, has a huge lead with the backing of eight pundits, including Rolling Stone’s Peter Travers and Variety’s Tim Gray. A month ago, before Spotlight widely was seen at film festivals and industry screenings, no experts picked it to win but all of them foresaw a Best Picture nomination. They ranked it 12th with 40-to-1 odds. What a difference a few weeks has made.
Two experts now are betting on second-placed Steve Jobs, Danny Boyle’s biopic starring Michael Fassbender as Apple’s patron saint; and two experts are picking third-placed The Revenant, the latest work by recent Oscar champ Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman). It stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a frontiersman who seeks revenge on his hunting party that left him for dead.
A month ago the Best Picture poll was topped by David O. Russell’s Joy, which stars past Best Actress champ Jennifer Lawrence as a Long Island housewife who becomes a booming entrepreneur. Now Joy is in third place with 17-to-2 odds and three Oscarologists picking it to prevail.
GOLD DERBY RANKINGS & ODDS: Oscar Best Picture Race