7TH UPDATE, Monday 2:58PM – Final weekend actuals: Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation arrived closer to the industry’s estimates yesterday morning with $55.5M, still a gross that’s considered a comeback for both Tom Cruise and the M:I franchise. The sequel, according to distrib experts, is expected to slide 50%-55% this coming weekend with $25M-$27.8M, the average second-weekend drop for a tentpole of this type. 20th Century Fox’s reboot of The Fantastic Four is expected to take No. 1 next weekend with a $40M FSS on an estimated 3,800 screens.
In summer 2006, M:I3 had a -48% decline in its sophomore frame with $25M. Like all Cruise films, M:I5′s success can be drawn to his relentless promotion at global premieres for the film and late-night TV appearances, not to mention that he also reached out to his 9.4M Facebook and 5.5M Twitter fans with tons of material. Actor Simon Pegg was also pushing his M:I5 bits to his 6.6M Twitter and 817K FB fans. According to RelishMix, the M:I5 social media universe counts 89M with 57.4M YouTube views and a heavily weighted reach from Cruise on Facebook is at 19M and Twitter with 13M as of last week. M:I videos prior to the film’s opening were being reposted at a rate of 14 to 1.
I,n two weekends, there’s another sexy spy film based on a 1960s TV series, Guy Ritchie’s big-screen take on The Man From U.N.C.L.E. However, Warner Bros. already RSVPed August 14 a year ago, before Paramount decided in January to move M:I5 from December to July. U.N.C.L.E. shouldn’t be in a situation where its arm is twisted by M:I5 and Warner Bros. has to scream “Uncle!” There’s enough breathing room for the Armie Hammer-Henry Cavill film to open to $20M, per industry projections. Funny thing is — Cruise originally was attached to do U.N.C.L.E. but then decided to make M:I5. He likely made the right choice, keeping his spy genre confined to Mission: Impossible rather making another carbon copy like Knight & Day ($76.4M domestic B.O.).
'The End Of The Tour', 'Best Of Enemies', 'Listen To Me Marlon' Post Strong Debuts: Specialty B.O.
In August 2014, among R-rated comedies, Fox’s Let’s Be Cops posted a five-day opening of $26.2M and generated a cume that was 3x that with $82.4M off a B CinemaScore. It’s remains to be seen whether Vacation can pull that off with the same grade and a $21M five day opening. The difference between the two is that Cops drew more guys during its first FSS, while Vacation hooked 53% females. Industry estimates see the final cume for Vacation at $55M-$60M stateside.
The top 20 box office actuals for the weekend of Aug. 3-5 per Rentrak
- Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation, Paramount, $55.5M, 3,956 locations, $14,034 average, $55.5M, Wk 1
- Vacation, Warner Bros., $14.68M, 3,411 locations, $4,304 average, $21M, Wk 1
- Ant-Man, Disney, $12.8M (-49%), 3,322 locations, $3,854 average, $132.3M, Wk 3
- Minions, Universal, $12.387M (-46%), 3,575 locations, $3,465 average, $287.6M, Wk 4
- Pixels, Sony, $10.5M (-56%), 3,723 locations, $2,821 average, $45.7M, Wk 2
- Trainwreck, Universal, $9.6M (-44%), 2,960 locations, $3,245 average, $79.6M, Wk 3
- Southpaw, The Weinstein Company, $7.6M (-54%), 2,772 locations, $2,748 average, $31.7M, Wk 2
- Paper Towns, 20th Century Fox, $4.6M (-63%), 3,031 locations, $1,530 average, $23.9M, Wk 2
- Inside Out, Disney, $4.5M (-39%), 1,904 locations, $2,369 average, $329.6M, Wk 7
- Jurassic World, Universal, $3.9M (-46%), 1,912 locations, $2,040 average, $631.6M, Wk 8
- Mr. Holmes, Roadside Attractions, $2.35M (-18%), 901 locations, $2,613 average, $10.3M, Wk 3
- Terminator Genisys, Paramount, $943K (-61%), 736 locations, $1,282 average, $87.7M, Wk 5
- Magic Mike XXL, Warner Bros., $646K (-66%), 565 locations, $1,143 average, $64.8M, Wk 5
- Irrational Man, Sony Pictures Classics, $497K (+95%), 135 locations, $3,681 average, $1.13M, Wk 3
- Ted 2, Universal, $495K (-49%), 505 locations, $980 average, $80.5M, Wk 6
- Amy, A24 Films, $438K (-40%), 245 locations, $1,788 average, $6.4M, Wk 5
- Spy, 20th Century Fox, $413K (-465), 375 locations, $1,102 average, $108.87M, wk 9
- The Gallows, Warner Bros., $352K (-70%), 363 locations, $970 average, $22.2M, wk 4
- The Vatican Tapes, Lionsgate, $321K (-61%), 427 locations, $753 average, $1.5M, wk 2.
- Mad Max: Fury Road, Warner Bros., $302K (-28%), 302 locations, $1,001 average, $152.2M, wk 12
6TH UPDATE, Sunday AM final update: Mission accomplished, Paramount. After a wobbly summer entry with the dented and frayed Terminator: Genisys ($42.5M five-day opening, current cume $87.6M), the Melrose Ave. lot has plenty to celebrate today after the Skydance co-production Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation delivered a great first FSS of $56M per the studio ($55.6M per industry estimates) at 3,956 theaters, making it the second highest weekend ever for a Mission: Impossible movie and the third highest FSS portion of an opening weekend in Cruise’s career after War of the Worlds ($64.9M) and Mission: Impossible II ($57.8M). Of the top five FSS on Cruise’s resume, five of them are with Paramount, four of them M:Is.
The demos on M:I5 were much older, drawing an 81% over-25 audience versus Ghost Protocol’s 65%. That’s not a bad thing as 25-49 is the sweet spot for Mission: Impossible — the film, in terms of its draw, is within the vicinity of James Bond fare. This sets up a very interesting tug-of-war for young males between M:I5 and 20th Century Fox’s Fantastic Four next weekend, which per last week’s tracking showed the superhero title the strongest among under-25 guys.
Warner Bros. and New Line are reporting Vacation in second with a $14.85M FSS and a five-day opening of $21.17M at 3,411. Females mostly turned up at 53% (let’s face it, the guys — at 62% — were watching Rogue Nation). Whenever a studio reboots a classic comedy or releases a long-awaited to sequel to one, it’s bound to come up against the core fans’ cynicism, and that’s what happened here with Vacation, at least based on the turnout this weekend. Dumb and Dumber To succeeded during its opening weekend with $36.1M because the marketing and the film both kept the spirit and the original stars, Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels. Vacation could have bought some street cred in its marketing with the older folks by folding in just a bit more Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo. Reviews from 1983 (you can’t look at Rotten Tomatoes for this one) panned the original Vacation, and it was a similar case this time around. However, the 1983 Vacation bucked the critics.
All of this said, I’m told that Warner Bros. and New Line wanted to tailor this Vacation for the uninitiated. That crowd, who were in diapers in ’83, showed up with 52% under-35. 48% were over 35. Both demos differed in their response. The old people didn’t feel like it was the Vacation they grew up with, giving it a B-, while the under 35ers found something to laugh about, grading the Ed Helms-Christina Applegate film an A-. CinemaScore is reporting that the under-18 demographic gave Vacation an A, but they only showed up at 17%, while the under-25ers gave it an A-, also a minority at 36%. Typically whenever the A-grading group is the minority on opening weekend, it doesn’t resonate in the weeks to come. Nonetheless, the studio is confident that Walley World isn’t closed for repairs, that kids will continue to line up. We’ll see. On the upside for Warner Bros, for all the poo-poo that’s been said about their summer, they’ve kept their production costs significantly down across the board for San Andreas, Magic Mike XXL, Entourage and Vacation, which is a reported $31M. Despite any rain that’s fallen on Vacation this weekend, Warner Bros. believes it will have a rainbow. One guy who endorsed the new Vacation? Why, Chevy Chase (I know, I know, — he appears in the movie, but I heard he was doubling over with laughter at the premiere).
The opening for M:I5 continues to solidify the franchise’s popularity among the masses – it can only get better from here as Paramount and Cruise demonstrated after hiking the final cumes between M:I3 and M:I4 by 56%. Last summer when Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow, which cost $178M, hit the floor and ate dirt with a No. 3 $28.7M opening, we wondered if the action star had a solid audience anymore stateside. Edge’s opening came on the streak of three of the actors’ films arriving in under $100M in regards to their final stateside cumes – Jack Reacher, Knight & Day and the disastrous Rock of Ages. With M:I5, it’s obvious that Cruise still has an audience stateside. Similar to Liam Neeson with Taken, when Cruise is in the wheelhouse of the M:I brand, U.S./Canada audiences know they’re getting something good, while refusing in droves anything that smells like a carbon copy, i.e. Knight & Day ($20.1M, $76.4M). Neeson has the same problem with films that are framed to look like Taken (his last underperformer Run All Night at $26.5M). There’s always some inherent risk for a star when they try out original IP, but Cruise is fearless when it comes to hanging his star on such properties, with most of his titles paying off abroad (plus you can’t knock the $37M opening for Oblivion on the latter part of his credits).
“The interesting story as it relates to Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation is that we were supposed to come out at Christmas. The move to July occurred when we were in the middle of shooting. It was a move that Tom Cruise wanted as he felt there was an opportunity in the summer and Brad Grey and Paramount backed him 100%,” said Paramount worldwide distribution and marketing chief Megan Colligan this morning.
That’s really a rare thing to move a film that late in its production process to an earlier spot on the release schedule. There was a rush for Paramount to get their promo materials together earlier, but they pulled it off. Cruise, as is standard with his tentpoles, had a hand in marketing. Given the film’s homage to Alfred Hitchcock in its opera and plane scene, the marketing for M:I5 took a cool retro angle, evident in its 1970s-like one sheet with earth tones and top-to-bottom talent positioning.
MI:5 lit 369 Imax screens on fire with $8.4 mil, the third best for a July domestic opening after Dark Knight Rises’ $19 mil and Harry Potter 7, Pt 2’s $15.2 mil. Premium large format chalked up $2.6M, 13% of Friday’s gross with Cinemark XD grossing close to $700K at 108 screens.
Among holdovers, Sony’s Pixels is pacing ahead of Adam Sandler’s Jack and Jill by 12%. Worldwide for Pixels stands at an estimated $102M; that’s currently coming from a $88M production cost. Weinstein Co.’s Southpaw‘s total cume of $31.9M through its second weekend is 13% ahead of Jake Gyllenhaal’s Source Code at the same point in time. 20th Century Fox’s Paper Towns is down 64% in its second weekend with a 10-day cume of $23.8M. Globally the film is at $49.5M. Remember, this teenage girl drama only cost a reported $13M, so that’s the takeaway here.
The top 10 studio-reported grosses as compiled by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka:
1). Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation (PAR), 3,956 theaters / $20.3M Fri.* / $19.7M Sat. (-3%) /$16M Sun. (-19%) /3-day cume: $56M / Wk 1
* includes previews of $4M
Industry estimate:$55.6M FSS
2). Vacation (WB), 3,411 theaters / $4.5M Fri. / $5.8M Sat. (+28%) /$4.6M Sun. (-21%) / 3-day cume: $14.85M / Total cume: $21.2M** /Wk 1
**includes Tuesday previews of $1.2M
Industry estimate:$14.7M FSS, $21.2M cume
3). Ant-Man (DIS), 3,322 theaters (-546) / $3.6M Fri. / $5.1M Sat. (+40%) /$3.9M Sun. (-23%) / 3-day cume: $12.6M (-49%)/Total cume: $132.1M/Wk 3
Industry estimate: $12.6M FSS, $132.1M cume
4). Minions (UNI), 3,575 theaters (-491)/ $3.6M Fri. / $5M Sat. (+36%) /$3.6M Sun. (-28%) / 3-day cume: $12.2M (-47%)/Total Cume: $287.3M / Wk 4
Industry estimate: $12.2M FSS, $287.3M cume
5). Pixels (SONY), 3,723 theaters (0)/ $3.16M Fri. / $4.1M Sat. (+31%) /$3.1M Sun. (-24%) / 3-day cume: $10.4M (-57%)/Total cume: $45.6M/ Wk 2
Industry estimate:$10.3M FSS, $45.6M cume
6). Trainwreck (UNI), 2,960 theaters (-211)/ $2.9M Fri. / $3.9M Sat. (+32%) /$2.9M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $9.7M (-44%)/Total cume: $79.7M/ Wk 3
Industry estimate: $9.7M FSS, $79.7M cume
7). Southpaw (TWC), 2,772 theaters (0) / $2.3M Fri. / $2.8M Sat. (+23%) /$2.4M Sun. (-15%) / 3-day cume: $7.5M (-55%)/ Total cume: $31.9M/Wk 2
Industry estimate:$7.4M FSS, $31.9M cume.
8). Paper Towns (FOX), 3,031 theaters (0) / $1.6M Fri. / $1.67M Sat. (+2%) /$1.3M Sun. (-22%) / 3-day cume: $4.6M (-64%)/Total cume: $23.8M / Wk 2
Industry estimate: $4.6M FSS, $23.8M cume
9). Inside Out (DIS), 1,904 theaters (-813)/ $1.3M Fri. / $1.8M Sat. (+39%) /$1.4M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $4.5M (-39%) /Total cume: $329.6M/ Wk 7
Industry estimate:$4.5M FSS, $329.6M cume
10). Jurassic World (UNI), 1,912 theaters (-733) / $1.1M Fri. / $1.6M Sat. (+50%) /$1.1M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $3.8M (-48%) /Total cume: $631.5M/ Wk 8
Industry estimate:$3.8M FSS, $631.5M cume
Industry estimate: No discrepancy
Irrational Man (SPC), 135 theaters (+107)/ 125K Fri. / $215K Sat. (+73%) /$162K Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume:$510K / Total cume: $1.1M /Wk 3
Angrej (INDI), 40 theaters / $84K Fri. / $137K Sat. (+63%) /$96K Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $317K / Wk 1
The End Of The Tour (A24), 4 theaters / $44K Fri. / $47K Sat. (+8%) /$38K Sun. (-20%) / 3-day cume: $128K /Per screen avg: $32K/ Wk 1
Best Of Enemies (MAG), 4 theaters / $17K Fri. / $24K Sat. (+42%) /$18K Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $60K /Per screen avg: 12K/ Wk 3
Listen To Me Marlon (INDI), 1 theaters / $9K Fri. / $11K Sat. (+16%) /$8K Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $29K /Per screen avg: $14K /Wk 1
The Kindergarten Teacher (KNLOR), 2 theaters / $2K Fri. / $4K Sat. (+92%) /$3K Sun. (-20%) / 3-day cume: $10K / Wk 1
5TH UPDATE, Saturday 11:40PM: Industry calculations originally expected the bulk of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation‘s business to occur on Friday. Hardly so, as the Tom Cruise film made $19.9M today, just 2% down from Friday’s $20.3M. This puts the opening weekend for the Paramount/Skydance fifthquel at $55M. Should that figure stick, it will be the second best FSS for an M:I pic after M:I2‘s $57.3M. Good vibes for M:I5 is spreading, and it wouldn’t be surprising at this point if its Sunday, which is projected to decline -25%, is even better.
With numbers up across the board — even Adam Sandler got some good news — it looks like plenty of folks were getting out of the heat and into the air-conditioned theaters this weekend. Warner Bros./New Line’s Vacation registered a 31% uptick from Friday with $5.8M — its biggest day at the B.O. since opening Wednesday. FSS is ranging from $14.75M-$14.9M with a five-day cume near $21M. That’s still below original projections, which were pegging Vacation between $30M-$40M for its Wednesday-Sunday.
Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Minions and Disney Marvel’s Ant-Man keep slapping each other back and forth in the fight for third place. After a 37% surge on Saturday over Friday, Minions currently looks to take No. 3 with $12.3M in its fourth frame with a total cume of $287.5M. Ant-Man is also up +36% on Saturday from Friday with $4.95M. Third weekend looks like $12.28M with a total of $131.8M.
Sandler’s Pixels zapped up more bucks as well with $4.1M today, +32% from Friday. Its estimated second weekend stands at $10.38M for a 10-day domestic count of $45.6M.
4TH UPDATE, Saturday 9:20AM after 1AM post: This weekend is the tale of two film franchises. The first, Mission: Impossible, has been active, churning out five films during the course of its 19-year existence with the same leading star, Tom Cruise.
The second, Vacation, is a 32-year old comedy series that has been dormant for nearly the same number of years that Mission Impossible has been alive. Vegas Vacation, the fourth title in the franchise, bombed 18 years ago in 1997, taking in $36.4M.
The younger of the two rallied Friday with Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation on course to deliver a record opening day for the franchise with
$20M $20.3M at 3,956 theaters per Paramount (that figure is in line with industry calculations). Among Cruise’s opening days, M:I5 is second behind War Of The Worlds, which rang up $21.3M. Current opening weekend forecast for M:I5 is at $52.6M per the industry, just $100K higher than the studio’s forecast. $51.4M . Among the first FSS for Mission: Impossible titles (even though the first two titles opened on Wednesday and the fourth was a platform release), M:I5 is on track to rank second to Mission: Impossible II ($57.3M). Rentrak’s Postrak reports guys who shave attending M:15 with 63% male and 62% over 25. 23% of the crowd came out because it’s an action film, 20% are Mission: Impossible fans while 18% bought tickets because they’re Cruise fans. Imax repped 16% of Friday’s gross.
Meanwhile, New Line/Warner Bros.’ Vacation, which looks to slot second, is breaking down like a Griswold family car in the desert. Saturday morning industry calculations have it slightly higher than what we saw last night with a $4.45M Friday, $14M FSS and $20.4M 5-day. This is still below last Monday’s industry projections.
After its egregious 2011 remake of the 1982 Oscar-winning film Arthur ($12M opening/$33M final cume off a $40M budget), Warner Bros. should have known better: Stay the hell away from comedy reboots – they’re too risky, even on a bargain-basement budget. I’m told by a few sources that Vacation cost $31M, which isn’t that far from previous WB/New Line comedies, i.e. Horrible Bosses ($37M).
Vacation faced two major challenges that M:I5 wasn’t entirely saddled with: It needed to reestablish itself to a new generation, while exceeding the high expectations that the original film’s fans have toward the updated product. Underscoring this point is the fact that only 11% of Vacation’s audience came out Friday because they adored the franchise. Then there’s the simple fact that audiences just liked M:15 better than Vacation with respective CinemaScores of A- to B. That’s the third A- earned in a row by a Mission: Impossible title.
As one rival studio executive said of Vacation’s misfire: “Older audiences were too suspicious that it wasn’t as good as the original, and for younger audiences it’s a yawn, a ‘What the hell is this?’”
It pains me to pick apart Vacation: I’m in the minority in terms of those who found it funny (you can go to town, commenters, and throw toilet paper in my trees). Ed Helms as middle-age Rusty nails Chevy Chase’s cadence, and the crapstorms that the Griswolds face are both fresh and in the spirit of the original 1983 film. Coming away from CinemaCon, the press was in stitches over the trailer, which showcased Chris Hemsworth’s manhood. However, I was told yesterday that many exhibitors, who share the same opinion as general movie audiences, found the film to be lowbrow. Warner Bros. and New Line were adamant about keeping the updated film as close to the spirit of the original, and you can’t fault them for that. This Vacation needed to be rated R, and even raunchier than any title in the series before it. Word is that Vacation scored well in test screenings. Warner Bros. tried to spread the word by screening the film to the press in early July and even pulled in fangirls and boys at Comic-Con for a sneak preview.
Several insiders and rival distrib execs have their theories in regards to what went wrong with Vacation. One thought that pairing Christina Applegate together with Helms wasn’t the ideal combo for maximum B.O. results (conversely, a Will Ferrell-Applegate combo worked for Anchorman). Whenever the conversation arises about the quintessential femme co-star in a film, many typically point to Jennifer Aniston (who was key in hooking females to We’re the Millers and Horrible Bosses). This doesn’t mean that Applegate can’t do comedy or isn’t good, heck she fake puked for hours during production and hung upside down in roller coaster in Vacation. Cruise just hung outside of an airplane in M:I5. This is all about putting the right blocks together to build the perfect summer comedy. I understand that she did score quite well in testing. But as is the case with all films, no matter how well you market and stack it, you don’t know how it’s going to fly until it opens. Rentrak’s PostTrak reports that 25% attended Vacation because it was an R-rated raunchy comedy, while only 12% of the opening day’s audience came out for the cast.
Vacation was also more evenly split between males and females than M:I5 with 51% to 49%. In addition, the trailers sent mixed signals. One rival studio marketing executive said that there wasn’t enough nostalgia factor, and 30-second TV spots failed to set-up and pay-off jokes properly. Largely absent from trailers and TV spots was the Vacation title theme song “Holiday Road” from Lindsey Buckingham, a theme that older fans would have connected to. Look closely in the one sheets, and you can spot the Walley World logo on Helms’ T-shirt. In addition, Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo make cameos in the film and therefore weren’t part of the larger spotlight in marketing materials. The theatrical trailers played to great hilarity, and in a final last minute gasp, Warner Bros. dropped a two minute red-band trailer a week before release drawing only 66K views on the studio’s YouTube page.
CinemaScore shows A among under 18, A- among under 35, but it’s not clear whether this demo came out in droves (which is what PostTrak isn’t indicating). We’ll see if positive word of mouth spreads in coming weeks.
RelishMix points out that Vacation had a great social media universe of 36.3M with hot YouTube view counts up to 21M, a Facebook reach of 7.7M, and 7.6M Twitter followers. Fans were reposting videos 12 to 1, which is a notch above average, far from the 19 to 1 repost rate which Neighbors had. Again, it’s a bad summer for franchise comedy with Entourage, Ted 2 and Magic Mike XXL paling expectations. Original R-rated raunch IP such as Trainwreck (which will chugga choo choo its way to just under $80M by Sunday) and Spy ($108.5M) faring much better.
Cruise created the global barnstorming tour for tentpole films, and that press-the-flesh form of marketing is as tried-and-true as cutting the perfect trailer. The world premiere for M:I5 was held in Vienna, Austria, where the film was shot becoming the most-watched live stream event on Yahoo. The actor also made stops with M:I5 in New York City, Toronto, Seoul and London. Much like its predecessor Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol ($209.4M domestic, $485.3M overseas), M:I5 is projected to make 70% of its worldwide take abroad.
Paramount literally engaged its potential M:I5 audiences with a variety of live action and social stunts:
An integrated Snapchat “Mission Month” engaged fans to take part in 24 hour “self destructing” missions, all introduced personally by Cruise. The challenges included audiences submitting themselves running a la Cruise that are ever present in the franchise and fans snapping real life missions all over town. This drew 65M impressions across various social media formats; with the promo tied to the 15K M:I5 Instagram followers. There was a Dubsmash challenge whereby fans could download the app, create a Dubsmash with a M:I5 quote then post the video to Vine, Twitter or Instagram for a chance to win tickets to the NYC premiere. For Cruise’s Lip Sync Battle on The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon, Relish Mix reports the video crossed 6M in 2 days on Facebook and 7.6M on YouTube.
There was an M:I “Roomscape” in-theater activation in AMC/Imax locations in NYC, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles where teams work together to escape from a safe room inspired by the film. In an outdoor experiential execution, people were surprised when a kiosk at Hollywood & Highland came to life with a video message from M:I5 co-star Simon Pegg, challenging them to complete a series of IMF-worthy stunts to qualify for a trip to the premiere to meet Cruise.
Among families, Disney Marvel’s Ant-Man and Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Minions are snapping each other’s underoos for third place, with the superhero rising to the projected weekend slot with $12.4M to little guys’ $12.1M.
Sony’s Adam Sandler title Pixels, which the media pummeled as if it owed them money, is declining 57% in its second weekend, however, by Sunday its 10-day cume will be at $45.6M running 12% ahead of Jack and Jill (final domestic $74.2M) at the same point in time. Sandler can stick his tongue out at last weekend’s poor press for Pixels: The ’80s arcade comedy is going to cross $100M worldwide by Sunday.
The Weinstein Co.’s Southpaw is heading for a 52% decline in its second weekend with $8M raising its 10-day cume to $32.1M. 20th Century Fox’s Paper Towns is down 62% on course for a second estimated weekend of $4.8M and a cume through its second frame of $24M.
In its third weekend, Roadside Attractions/Miramax is holding Mr. Holmes together with a 18%
23% dip after expanding to 901 venues. Sony Classics’ Woody Allen film Irrational Man will cross the $1M mark on Sunday after expanding to 135 bookings.
The top 11 weekend films per industry estimates for the weekend of July 31-Aug. 2 revised as of 10AM Saturday, courtesy of Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka:
1). Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation (PAR), 3,956 theaters / $20.3M Fri.* / 3-day cume: $52.6M / Wk 1
*includes $4M previews
2). Vacation (WB), 3,411 theaters / $4.45M Fri. / 3-day cume: $14M / Total cume: $20.4M /Wk 1
3). Ant-Man (DIS), 3,322 theaters (-546) / $3.65M Fri. (-50%) / 3-day cume: $12.4M (-50%)/Total cume: $131.8M/Wk 3
4). Minions (UNI), 3,575 theaters (-491)/ $3.6M Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $12.1M (-47%)/Total Cume: $287.3M / Wk 4
5). Pixels (SONY), 3,723 theaters (0)/ $3.1M Fri. (-66%) / 3-day cume: $10.4M (-57%)/Total cume: $45.6M/ Wk 2
6). Trainwreck (UNI), 2,960 theaters (-211)/ $2.9M Fri. (-45%) / 3-day cume: $9.7M (-44%)/Total cume: $79.6M/ Wk 3
7). Southpaw (TWC), 2,772 theaters (0) / $2.3M Fri. (-63%) / 3-day cume: $8M (-52%)/ Total cume: $32.1M/Wk 2
8). Paper Towns (FOX), 3,031 theaters (0) / $1.6M Fri. (-75%) / 3-day cume: $4.8M (-62%)/Total cume: $24M / Wk 2
9). Inside Out (DIS), 1,904 theaters (-813)/ $1.29M Fri. (-42%)/ 3-day cume: $4.3M (-41%) /Total cume: $329.4M/ Wk 7
10). Jurassic World (UNI), 1,912 theaters (-733) / $1.04M Fri. (-49%) / 3-day cume: $3.6M (-50%) /Total cume: $631.1M/ Wk 8
11). Mr. Holmes (RSA/Miramax), 901 theaters (+215) / $635k Fri. (-19%) / 3-day cume: $2.3M (-18%) /Total cume: $10.3M/ Wk 3
Irrational Man (SPC), 135 theaters (+107) / $126K Fri. (+88%) / 3-day cume: $471K (+85%) /Total cume: $1.1M Wk 3
Angrej (INDI), 40 theaters / $80K Fri. / 3-day cume: $253K / Wk 1
The End Of The Tour (A24), 4 theaters / $37K Fri. / 3-day cume: $117K /Per screen avg: $29K/ Wk 1
Best Of Enemies (MAG), 4 theaters / $6K Fri. / 3-day cume: $31K / Wk 1
Listen To Me Marlon (INDI), 1 theaters / $5K Fri. / 3-day cume: $16K /Wk 1
2ND UPDATE, Friday: Like a flame to dynamite, the good word-of-mouth is about to explode for Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, thanks to those stellar reviews. Industry estimates are pegging the weekend opening in the high-$40Ms to $50M. Friday alone, with $4M in previews, is looking at $18M. That’s a decent stateside opening for the Christopher McQuarrie-directed film, which cost $150M, particularly since the Tom Cruise franchise title is expected to deliver 65%-70% of its global cume from overseas.
Warner Bros/New Line’s Vacation is underperforming at this point, with a weekend of $15M-$16M and a five day at $22M. In fact, Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Minions could rain on the film, giggling and stealing away the No. 2 spot. with a similar $15M-$16M haul. Minions’ total cume through three weeks has amassed to $275.2M. By Sunday, the animated feature looks to be north of $290M. Despite the Despicable Me spinoff’s great success at the B.O., it still will be lagging behind Despicable Me 2 by 5% through its fourth weekend.
Disney/Marvel’s Ant-Man is looking at a $12M weekend sending its cume by Sunday to an estimated $131.5M, breaths away from overtaking The Incredible Hulk ($134.8M domestic). Through two days, Vacation has $6.3M, which is less than what We’re The Millers counted in its first two days ($11.5M).
Holdovers Southpaw from Weinstein Co. and Pixels from Sony both are looking at a weekend take of $9M-$10M. Southpaw in its first week has racked up $24M, while Pixels has generated $35.2M. Net production cost on Southpaw was $24M.
1ST UDPATE, Friday, 7:36AM: Paramount and Skydance lit the fuse to Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation last night at 2,764 locations grossing an estimated $4M. That’s more than the $2.3M racked up Paramount/Skydance’s Terminator: Genisys on its preview night, though that title debuted on a Tuesday night during Independence Day week. Conservative projections peg M:I5 with an opening in the low-$40M range, which puts the $150M-budgeted pic under the first FSS of Mission: Impossible III ($47.7M). However, some industry execs believe that the film potentially could beat those conservative projections with a $50M+ opening thanks to the high praise critics have been lavishing on the Tom Cruise sequel, which has a Rotten Tomatoes fresh score of 93% this morning is right in on the mark with
92% that is a tad below Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol’s 93%. Imax shows for M:I5 repped 24% of last night’s total or $950K at 366 screens.
The Thursday preview number compares to Warner Bros’ Mad Max, which earned $3.7M in evening shows; Paramount’s World War Z, which earned $3.6M; and Fox’s Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes, which eared $4.1M.
Given that M:I5 was ready early, Paramount dynamited it away from Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Ghost Protocol, via an eclectic semi-wide rollout that took advantage of Imax screens, was a huge cash cow during the Christmas season making $209.4M, the second-highest-grossing title in the M:I franchise behind 2000’s Mission: Impossible II ($215.4M).
Among first choice, M:I5 is tracking strongest among guys over 25 at 17% and women over 25 at 10%. But it’s obvious Cruise has aged: only 4% of the ladies under 25 are interested in making the film their top choice this weekend.
Also Thursday, Warner Bros./New Line’s Vacation grossed $2.46M in its second day at the box office, raising its cume to $6.28M. When it comes to five-day openers, Thursday is always their dog day and the lowest of the five. In August 2013, We’re The Millers posted a 31% decline from its opening Wednesday of $8.5M. Vacation fell 36% day-over-day.
Subscribe to Deadline Breaking News Alerts and keep your inbox happy.