6TH UPDATE, Sunday 9:20AM after 7:55 AM post: The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 has widened with Universal’s Jurassic World taking the weekend crown away from Disney Pixar’s Inside Out after an intense, neck and neck frame. JW rang up $54.2M per Universal estimates in its third FSS, which isn’t that far from industry calculations which have the Dinos at $54.06M.
IO’s second weekend per Disney is $52.1M (down 42%) with a 10-day cume of $184.95M. The studio is settling for second place; no complaints. Industry projects that by end of today, Joy and Co. could be faring better with $52.7M and a total cume of $185.6M.
Universal projects that the Dinos have crossed the $500M in record time — 17 days — making it the fastest film to do so. Industry calculations see that the Dinos are just under that mark at $499.91M, but even if JW hits that figure tomorrow in 18 days, the Steven Spielberg produced four-quel still owns the record, beating 2012’s The Avengers which took 23 days to cross $500M.
Beamed Universal domestic distribution president Nicholas Carpou this morning, “There are audiences that are still finding Jurassic World for the first time, and there’s also strong repeat business that elevates the film’s gross from weekend to weekend. It continues to be a film for audiences to go back to; with every viewing they’re seeing it in a different way.”
This weekend’s faceoff boils down to two strong family films with crossover crowds, further fueled by 3D showtimes. 25% of IO‘s biz came from 3D. JW has the extra boost from 365 Imax hubs, which saw a slight uptick in B.O. share from 11% last weekend to 12% this weekend. JW had a 53% spike between its Friday ($14.7M) and Saturday ($22.5M). IO posted a 41% hike between its Friday ($15M) and Saturday ($21.1M). Sunday is expected to be another photo finish for both JW and IO, with each grossing $16.5M-$17.1M and remaining hairs apart. Dinos have the sharper claws.
Uni’s Ted 2 always had a lock on third, but turned in a lower-than-expected opening. The studio is calling the weekend at $32.9M at 3,442 engagements, but according to industry projections, it could do a little better by tomorrow with $33+M. Uni wasn’t over-bullish with its projections heading into the weekend, foreseeing an opening that was definitely below the first film’s. However, a bulk of the industry had Ted 2 at $45M-$50M, which means that tracking was out of line. Observed one distribution analyst this weekend, “Studio chiefs often say they don’t have a problem with tracking when the box office exceeds expectations. However, when the box office underperforms tracking — then they have a problem with tracking.”
With all the squabble about how Ted 2 left $21.5M on the table this weekend in regards to Ted‘s opening ($54.4M), one rival studio exec pointed out this morning that the sequel isn’t a disaster given its $85M cost (granted Fox’s Spy was cheaper at $65M and it’s nearing $200M worldwide). 60% of Ted‘s global tally of $549.4M came from foreign, and it simply means that the sequel will work a bit harder than domestic to hurl past breakeven. Ted 2 was co-financed by Media Rights Capital and Uni. The uphill battle for Ted is its third chapter, which will need to out-do the second’s premise, should a three-quel move forward.
Ted 2 attracted a similar audience to the first one, 59% male with 51% over the age of 25. I’ve heard audiences, which gave it a B+ CinemaScore, had less incentive to attend the sequel than the first Ted. Back in June 2012, moviegoers cited the following reasons for buying tickets to Ted: It was a bawdy comedy not to mention they showed a strong interest inactor Mark Wahlberg, actress Mila Kunis and director Seth MacFarlane. This time, audiences’ primary reason for attending Ted 2 was because they wanted to watch a raunchy comedy. Wahlberg and MacFarlane’s appeal fell, while co-star Amanda Seyfried didn’t register. Rentrak’s Post Trak audience graded Ted 2, 3.5 out of 5 stars.
Warner Bros. is reporting a $12.2M opening for its MGM doggie release Max at 2,855 locations. Max earned an A Cinemascore, with the core under 18 demo giving it an A+ CinemaScore. However, they only turned up at 24% (granted polling takes place on Friday night, not during the Saturday matinees), so the hope is that this crowd will keep showing up. Adult women bought tickets in droves for the movie, 57% being over 25. The over 50 crowd gave it an A+. Rentrak’s Post Trak audience hugged Max with 4 out of 5 stars. Max is over-indexing in American Sniper country at Midwest and Southwest theaters.
The top 10 studio-reported figures as collected by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka. Industry estimates are included for those titles that varied greatly from individual studio numbers:
1). Jurassic World (UNI), 4,198 theaters (-93)/ $14.7M Fri. / $22.5M Sat. (+53%)/ $17M Sun. (-25%)/ 3-day cume: $54.2M (-49%)/Total Cume: $500.1M / Wk 3
Industry calculation:$54.06M, $499.91 cume
2). Inside Out (DIS), 4,132 theaters (+186) / $15M Fri. / $21.1M Sat. (+41%)/ $16M Sun. (-24%)/ 3-day cume: $52.1M (-42%) /Total cume: $184.9/ Wk 2
Industry calculation: $52.7M, $185.6M cume
3). Ted 2 (UNI), 3,442 theaters / $13.3M Fri. / $11.2M Sat. (-16%)/ $8.4M Sun. (-25%)/ 3-day cume: $32.9M / Wk 1
Industry calculation: $33.1M
4). Max (WB), 2,855 theaters / $4.4M Fri. / $4.5M Sat. (+3%)/ $3.4M Sun. (-25%)/ 3-day cume: $12.2M / Wk 1
Industry calcuation: $12.2M.
5). Spy (FOX), 3,194 theaters (-364%)/ $2.1M Fri./ $3.4M Sat. (+60%)/ $2.3M Sun. (-33%)/ 3-day cume: $7.8M (-31%) / Total cume: $88.4M / Wk 4
6). San Andreas (WB), 2,620 theaters (-557) / $1.4M Fri. / $2.3M Sat. (+57%)/ $1.6M Sun. (-30%)/ 3-day cume: $5.3M (-39%) / Total cume: $141.9M/ Wk 5
7). Dope (OPRD), 1,851 theaters (-151) / $839K Fri. / $1.1M Sat. (+34%)/ $899K Sun. (-20%)/ 3-day cume: $2.9M (-53%) / Total cume: $11.8 /Wk 2
Industry calculation: $2.7M, $11.46M cume
8). Insidious Chapter 3 (FOC), 1,612 theaters (-941)/ $671K Fri. / $814K Sat. (+21%)/ $515 Sun. (-37%)/ 3-day cume: $2M (-50%) / Total cume: $49.8M / Wk 4
9). Mad Max: Fury Road (WB), 961 theaters (-463) / $440K Fri. / $740K Sat. (+68%)/ $555K Sun. (-25%)/ 3-day cume: $1.7M (-43%) / Total cume: $147.1M / Wk 7
10). Avengers: Age of Ultron (DIS), 1,097 theaters (-565) / $463K Fri. / $704K Sat. (+52%)/ $476K Sun. (-32%)/ 3-day cume: $1.6M (-42%) / Total cume: $452.4M / Wk 9
Sardaar Ji (WHP), 42 theaters / $108K Fri. / $168K Sat. (+56%)/ $118K Sun. (-30%)/ 3-day cume: $394K / Wk 1
Just The Way You Are (ABS), 55 theaters / $96K Fri. / $120K Sat. (+25%)/ $84K Sun. (-30%)/ 3-day cume: $300K / Wk 1
5TH UPDATE, Sunday 12:28AM: It’s still close. Current estimates from Saturday cash drawers show Universal’s Jurassic World with a slight edge over Disney-Pixar’s Inside Out for No. 1. JW is looking to bring in $54.7M-$55.2M at 4,198 theaters while IO is eyeing $53.5M-$54M at 4,132. If JW hits the low end of its current estimate, it will cross $500M in a record 17 days. JW made more than IO on Saturday, $22M-$23.5M vs. $21M-$23M.
Uni/MRC’s Ted 2 remains sluggish in third with an estimated $33M-$34.25M versus the $45M-$50M the town was expecting. Warner Bros./MGM’s Max still edging out its $10M weekend projection with a first FSS of $12.5M in fourth.
Open Road’s Dope in its second frame took in $2.86M, a 53% decline, for a 10-day running cume of $11.8M at 1,851 playdates, 151 less than the film’s opening weekend. The distrib together with Sony shelled out a $7M MG at Sundance with a promised P&A of $15M.
4TH UPDATE Sat. 8:31 AM after 3RD UPDATE, 12:30AM: Typically morning grosses provide more clarity than late night receipts, but in this case we’re still seeing Universal’s Jurassic World and Disney Pixar’s Inside Out in a Mexican standoff for No. 1. It’s going to go down to the wire, as both are expected to reap plenty from matinees today. Some industry forecasts see IO with the bigger Friday-to-Saturday jump of 35% to JW‘s 30%, however, with the Dinos making a tad more today. On a pure average basis right now, JW is showing some teeth for the FSS crown with $50.07M to IO‘s $49.9M — but it’s still too early to say that it will win. Hot fun in the summer time for bean counters.
On Friday the Pixar toon put a few more smiles on faces than the big reptiles, with respective day hauls of
$14.8M $15.04M versus $14.7M $14.4M as of this morning. That’s the second day in a row that IO has nipped JW. On Thursday the toon won $9.5M to T-Rex’s $8.9M. No surprise that JW is waning slightly after breaking all sorts of records. But whenever a film like JW goes to stratospheric heights “it becomes an animal all its own,” a wise distrib chief observed during the run of American Sniper. Nerves are struck, and folks just want to see it again and again. After beating Avengers: Age Of Ultron today as the highest-grossing film of 2015 to date with $460M, JW is set to become the fastest grossing film to reach $500M, making it in 18-19 days, beating The Avengers’ 23 days.
Social buzz for both JW and IO hasn’t faded, per RelishMix. JW’s total social engagement has grown 13M in the last week up to 243M across Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, while Inside Out’s social media universe has increased 9.8M for a total of 101M.
Ted 2 – wow, talk about sequel-itis. This morning projections are still low for the the first weekend of the Seth MacFarlane film with an opening of $34M-$35M, though slightly improved from what we saw last night with $31M. Friday came in at $13.3M and Ted 2 is expected to slide today. This R-rated film is doing the opposite of what a successful comedy franchise should be doing: It’s grossing in reverse. Forget about critics hating Ted 2, audiences were a little bit let down tonight, downgrading Ted 2 to a B+ from the first installment’s A-. Our sources tell us that Ted 2 drew a similar audience makeup to the original which pulled in 56% male and 52% under 30. Reported production cost was more expensive for Ted 2 ($85M) than Ted 1 ($50M). Media Rights Capital has skin in this bear. For perspective: 21 Jump Street posted a $36.3M bow while 22 Jump Street upticked to a $57M opening. Fueling that increase was an upgrade in the franchise’s CinemaScores between Part I & II, which went from a B to an A-.
Ted 2 vied to one-up itself from the original with the premise that the teddy is trying to declare himself a living being so he can have a baby and be recognized as a parent. Audiences just aren’t rushing out to see that.
Pin Ted 2’s ED to the DNA of the film, because according to the tracking, the marketing – even though the sequel’s one sheets looked too similar to the first – was working between June 7 and June 25. Within this time frame for Ted 2’s total audiences, first choice was up 88% to 15%, unaided awareness jumped 133% to 21% with total awareness up 9% to 93%.
Social media for Ted 2 also appeared healthy, according to RelishMix, with a movie Facebook page of 22M likes and Mark Wahlberg’s combined social power of 19.3M across FB, Twitter and Instagram. The Ted 2 YouTube trailer accumulated 22M views on the Universal Pictures’ YouTube channel with 510k subscribers which is good. However, the sequel’s big social video driver was Facebook. Total FB views are 64M for 26 videos posted compared to 4 videos posted on YouTube. Young crowds obviously knew Ted 2 was coming out.
One dent in Ted 2’s social media metrics was that JW was stepping on its fuzzy toes when it came to hashtags. Per RelishMix, #JurassicWorld which opened with 62k hashtags continued to rule on Twitter with 7k+ hashtags on Thursday which is twice the best hashtag for #Ted2, #WhatTedSaid or #LegalizeTed.
Warner Bros.’ MGM release of the military dog film Max is inching out expectations. $10M was the hopeful figure and the film is looking to post an estimated opening of
$11.3M $12.5M-$13.1M. Yesterday, Max fetched $4.3M. CinemaScore was an A, which means word of mouth will be solid. We’re also hearing this morning that more adults turned up to the film than moppets. You have to hand it to Warner Bros.: When it comes to un-branded animal pics, they know what they’re doing and how to resonate with a family crowd: Free Willy ($77.7M), March of the Penguins ($77.4M), Dolphin Tale ($72.3M). While Max won’t post those lofty numbers, look at how Warner Bros. turned the $6M film My Dog Skip into a cash cow with $34M. Max is a kid’s movie so the social media is a bit muted, however, RelishMix reports 8M total YouTube video views (earned and owned) on the Warner Bros. channel, which boasts 1.7M subscribers – ranking third behind Disney and Marvel.
Open Road’s Dope in its second weekend is set to fall 57% for a second FSS of $2.6M. As predicted, the distrib lost playdates for underperforming with their $6.1M bow last weekend. This FSS Dope is down 151 for a current theater count of 1,851.
The top 10 industry figures for the weekend of June 26-28, 2015 as of Saturday, 12:30AM as calculated by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka:
1/2). Jurassic World (UNI), 4,198 theaters (-93)/ $14.4M Fri. (-51%)/ 3-day cume: $46.5-50M (-54%)/Total Cume: $493.1M / Wk 3
1/2). Inside Out (DIS), 4,132 theaters (+186) / $14.8M Fri. (-57%) / 3-day cume: $47.5-50M (-46%) /Total cume: $181/ Wk 2
3). Ted 2 (UNI), 3,429 theaters / $12.5M Fri.* / 3-day cume: $31M / Wk 1
*includes $2.6M previews
4). Max (WB), 2,882 theaters / $4M Fri.**/ 3-day cume: $11.3M / Wk 1
**includes $500K previews
5). Spy (FOX), 3,194 theaters (-364%)/ $2.2M Fri. (-31%)/ 3-day cume: $6.9M (-38%) / Total cume: $87.3M / Wk 4
6). San Andreas (WB), 2,620 theaters (-557) / $1.5M Fri. (-34%) / 3-day cume: $5M (-43%) / Total cume: $141.3M/ Wk 5
7). Dope (OR), 1,851 theaters (-151) / $853K Fri. (-64%)/ 3-day cume: $2.6M (-57%) / Total cume: $11.4 /Wk 2
8). Insidious Chapter 3 (FOC), 1,612 theaters (-941)/ $641K Fri. (-56%) / 3-day cume: $1.8M (-56%) / Total cume: $49.6M / Wk 4
9). Mad Max: Fury Road (WB), 961 theaters (-463) / $451K Fri. (-39%) / 3-day cume: $1.6M (-46%) / Total cume: $147M / Wk 7
10). Avengers: Age of Ultron (DIS), 1,097 theaters (-565) / $441K Fri. (-40%) / 3-day cume: $1.5M (-47%) / Total cume: $452.3M / Wk 9
Sardaar Ji (WHP), 42 theaters / $110K Fri. / 3-day cume: $344K / Wk 1
Just The Way You Are (ABS), 60 theaters / $85K Fri. / 3-day cume: $258K / Wk 1
A Little Chaos (FOCW), 83 theaters / $55K Fri. / 3-day cume: $173K / Wk 1
Batkid Begins (WB), 4 theaters / $9K Fri. / 3-day cume: $27K / Wk 1
Big Game (EURC), 11 theaters / $5K Fri. / 3-day cume: $14K / Wk 1
Runoff (MONT), 1 theaters / $3K Fri. / 3-day cume: $9K / Wk 1
2ND UPDATE, 6:26PM: With tonight’s business, Universal’s Jurassic World takes the B.O. crown away from Disney’s Avengers: Age of Ultron as the highest-grossing film of 2015 with an estimated $460M cume. Uni’s dinos are still stompin’, so much that they’re steppin’ on the studio’s prized potty mouth bear, Ted 2. Given how soft matinees were, we held off on projecting Ted 2, since R-rated films aren’t Friday matinee movies. Business could kick into high gear by the time late night rolls around. But as of right now, estimates for Ted 2 are softer than its first chapter (which made $20.6M on its opening Friday) with an estimated $15M-$17.5M opening day, including Thursday previews. That puts Ted 2‘s opening weekend in the $43M-$45M range at third. The first Ted earned an A- CinemaScore, yielding a 4x multiple of its $54.4M bow with a final stateside cume of $218.8M. It also won critics over with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 67% fresh. The tweeds stuck their tongues out at Ted 2 with a 45% rotten score, but that’s not what’s gonna slow this raunchy sequel down. Ted 2‘s libido rests on solid WOM, and we’ll see how CinemaScore voters cast their ballots later tonight.
Jurassic World‘s third FSS of $49M-$50M is expected to slot first, and Disney Pixar’s Inside Out will be right behind in its second frame. By Sunday night, JW will be a breath away from $500M, with an estimated cume of $495.8M, and the movie will own that fastest-to record as well. 2012’s The Avengers crossed the five century mark in 23 days; JW will do it in 18. As the evening progresses we’ll have a better idea of the spread between JW and IO. Warner Bros.’ release of MGM’s Max is showing a Friday of $3.5M-$4.3M and an opening weekend of $11M-$13M, which is better than the studio was hoping for.
1ST UPDATE, 7:03AM: Universal’s Ted 2 woke up Friday morning not to Tami-Lynn, but to $2.6M from Thursday night previews at 2,647 venues. On the preview B.O. measuring stick, Ted 2 did a tad better than Uni’s Neighbors last June, which rang up $2.5M before posting a $19.57M Friday. Ted 2 also nearly matched Ted‘s late nights which grossed $2.625M (and made a $20.6M Friday). Weekend estimates have Ted 2 at $45M-$50M, with some sources thinking the Seth MacFarlane sequel will rank at the higher end of that range given the pace of summer turnstiles right now. Previews began at 8 PM last night.
Per Fandango yesterday, Ted 2 was outselling Ted 1 at the same point in its cycle. It’s also one of the June releases together with Jurassic World and Inside Out that are driving the online ticket seller to a record month. According to Wednesday tracking, total awareness for the bear was running from the low to mid 90%s with females under 25 showing the strongest interest at 96%. Unaided awareness is decent in the low 20% range, again with women under 25 having the slight edge over guys with 22%.
Also bowing this weekend is Warner Bros.’ release of the MGM Marine canine film Max which is looking to lick up $10M over the weekend. The film took in $500K in previews last night. Whatever bones Max digs up at the multiplex this weekend, it’s gonna push Warner Bros. past the $1B mark at the domestic B.O. According to early AM estimates through yesterday, Warner Bros.’ Jan. 1-June 25 stateside haul stands at $995M.
Both wide entries are expected to slot third and fourth behind Uni’s Jurassic World which has a lock on No. 1 with an expected $60M third sesh and Disney Pixar’s Inside Out, which should hook $50M-$52M in its second weekend at No. 2.
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