There’s encouraging news for Hollywood in the latest annual five-year business forecast from consulting firm PwC. After four years of declining U.S. filmed entertainment revenues, hitting a recent low of $28.2 billion last year, the latest projection anticipates $29.1 billion in 2015 consistently rising to $35.3 billion in 2019.
Electronic home video will drive the growth, according to PwC’s 16th annual Global Entertainment And Media Outlook. Combining sales, rentals, and online streaming from services including Netflix, the category will account for $9.5 billion in revenues this year, a 13% increase from 2014 — surpassing disc sales and rentals at $7.8 billion, down 9.8%. In 2017 electronic will be up to $12 billion, eclipsing box office at $11.8 billion, up from $11.1 billion this year.
Electronic will keep growing to $16.5 billion in 2019, accounting for nearly 47 cents of each dollar spent on filmed entertainment, up from about 32 cents now. The bulk of the electronic revenues will come from on demand streaming, including for TV-based services such as HBO Now. It will nearly double to $12.6 billion in 2019.
PwC also sees box office sales steadily growing, a change from the up-and-down results from the last several years. Most startling: the firm expects the number of tickets sold to rise an average of 2.6% a year to 1.3 billion in 2019. Based on that, forecasters expect sales to rise 3.3% a year to $12.6 billion in 2019.
Looking broadly at media, PwC sees overall spending growing at a rate of 5% per year to $723.4 billion in 2019 from $594.7 billion this year. Consumer payments for Internet access will account for 25.3% of the total, vs 20.6% this year. Mobile Internet access spending will leap 77.6% to $136.6 billion, while fixed broadband rises 9.7% to $58.5 billion.
TV advertising at $81 billion in 2019 will represent 10.5% of the pie, down from 11.3% this year. And TV subscription outlays, at $105.3 billion, will amount to 13.6% of the media spending total, down from 15.9%.