BOX OFFICE: July 4th Holiday Down 42% As ‘Transformers’ Led And ‘Tammy’ Bowed

16th UPDATE, Monday, 2:40 PM: Here are the final gross updates for the Top 20 films of the July Fourth weekend. I’ve included both 3-day and 5-day totals for the Top Ten. The jump went to favorite son 22 Jump Street as this morning it looked like it was under Screen Gems’ Deliver Us From Evil. See below for the Monday updates. So while 22 Jump Street won the three-day weekend, it racked up a lesser per screen average than Evil which won the five-day derby. That’s a way to mix it up as they were neck in neck throughout the weekend. Overall, the Fourth of July holiday weekend was 42% lower than last year when Despicable Me 2 bowed to a whopping $83.5M. Last year, the 4th fell on a Thursday.

Interesting to see how the weather affected the box office holiday this weekend. On the Fourth, which was a Friday, Los Angeles was down only 1% night to night (which is fairly normal for the Fourth with good weather in L.A.). However, the East Coast where it was raining saw a huge jump in movie attendance — 76% up from Thursday to Friday in New York and 170% rise on Friday in Boston. When it rains in the summer, people go to the movies, esp. on a rainy holiday.

Transformers: Age of Extinction, in its second weekend dropped 63%. It also dropped 75% Friday to Friday (which included $8.75M of late night grosses) so the studio likely made their adjustments during the week or weekend. Despite what others reported, everyone knows that this industry has yet to see a picture open to $100M. Next weekend, we have Dawn of the Planet of the Apes coming from Fox, but that is not expected to do it either even though it is a high-quality film well-targeted for its demo. Expect a high CinemaScore and great word of mouth. Right now, it’s expected to surpass the opening weekend of Rise of the Planet of the Apes which bowed to $54.8M in April 2011. Dawn opens at 10 PM on July 10.

A shout out to a very high-quality film coming out this coming weekend: Richard Linklater’s Boyhood from IFC Films. It is, simply put, one of the best films I’ve seen so far this year.

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how far Tammy falls next weekend as word of mouth is going to hurt it. Here’s the finals from the studios:

1). Transformers: Age of Extinction (PAR), 4,233 theaters (0) / 3-day cume: $37M / Per screen average: $8,753 / 5-day cume: $54.4M / Total cume: $175.3M / Wk 2

2). Tammy (WB), 3,465 theaters / 3-day cume: $21.5M / Per screen: $6,227 / 5-day cume: $33.3M / Wk 1

3/4). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,324 theaters (-12) / 3-day cume: $9.8M / Per screen: $2,949 / 5-day cume: $14.2M / Total cume: $159.2M / Wk 4

Deliver Us From Evil (SONY), 3,049 theaters / 3-day cume: $9.7M /Per screen: $3,195 / 5-day cume: $15M / Wk 1

5). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 3,297 theaters (-453) / 3-day cume: $8.9M / Per screen: $2,718 / 5-day cume: $13.3M / Total cume: $140.2M / Wk 4

6). Earth to Echo (REL), 3,320 theaters / 3-day cume: $8.3M / Per screen: $2,590 / 5-day cume: $13.5M / Wk 1

7). Maleficent (DIS), 2,389 theaters (-684) / 3-day cume: $6.1M / Per screen: $2553 / 5-day cume: $9.8M / Total expected cume: $214.9M / Wk 6

8). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,630 theaters (-275) / 3-day cume: $5.1M / Per screen: $1,960 / 5-day cume: $7.1M / Total cume: $36.6M / Wk 3

9). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 1,729 theaters (-496) / 3-day cume: $4.8M / Per screen: $2,819 / 5-day cume: $6.79M / Total cume: $57.1M / Wk 3

10). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 1,538 theaters (-997) / 3-day cume: $3.6M / Per screen: $2,380 / 5-day cume: $4.99M / Total cume: $90.8M / Wk 5

11). America (LFG), theaters 1,105 (+1,102) / 3-day cume: $2.7M / Per screen: $2,483 / Total cume: $4M / Wk 2

12). The Fault in Our Stars (FOX), theaters 1,865 (-980) / 3-day cume: $2.5M / Per screen: $1,349 / Total cume: $115.9M / Wk 5

13). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 1,044 theaters (-970) / 3-day cume: $1.8M / Per screen: $1,813 / Total cume: $227.1M / Wk 7

14). Chef (OPRD), theaters 686 (-115) / 3-day cume: $1.6M / Per screen: $2,472 / Total cume: $22 / Wk 9

15). Begin Again (TWC), 175 theaters (+170) / 3-day cume: $1.2M / Per screen: $7,180 / Total cume: $1.7M / Wk 2

16). Snowpiercer (RAD/TWC), 250 theaters (+242) / 3-day cume: $1M / Per screen: $4,032 / Total cume: $1.5M / Wk 2

17). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY), 289 theaters (+15) / 3-day cume: $460K / Per screen: $1,593 / Total cume: $200.9M / Wk 10

18). Godzilla (WB), 352 theaters (-398) / 3-day cume: $419K / Per screen: $1,191 / Total cume: $197.9 / Wk 8

19). Neighbors (UNI), 315 theaters (-195) / 3-day cume: $417K / Per screen: $1,325 / Total cume: $148M / Wk 9

20). Obvious Child (A24), 202 theaters (+6) / 3-day cume: $374K / Per screen: $1,854 / Total cume: $1.9M / Wk 5

15th UPDATE, Monday, 8:43 AM: It looks like Sunday was good for the box office overall, but it’s still down from last year by over 40% as was the case yesterday, too. Final numbers for the Top 20 will be in later but here is a snapshot of final estimates for the Top Five and the Fourth of July’s three openers:

Transformers will end the weekend with anywhere from $36.8M to $37M+, logging a five-day tally of around $54M+. In two strong weeks of play, it’s now over $175M. The question is how much Fox’s opening of Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes will impact the go-bots it when it opens this coming weekend. I’ve seen Apes and it delivers strongly for the audience it was intended for.

Tammy should end the weekend with around $21M+ and maybe $33M+ for the five-day and next weekend should drop. It only had a C+ CinemaScore.

Sony has the No. 3 and No. 4 spots, with Deliver Us From Evil and 22 Jump Street (most have the Jerry Bruckheimer horror film slightly ahead of 22 but by a hair), both around the $9.7M mark for the three-day with Evil winning the five-day with $15.2M vs. 22‘s $14.1M or so.

How To Train Your Dragon 2 will end up at No. 5, having grossed anywhere between $8.8M and $9M while the other newcomer, Earth To Echo, unearthed about $8.2M for the three-day and $13M+ for the five-day by all accounts to fall behind the dragon. That’ll put Dragon at $140M after four weeks in release. The final numbers will arrive later this afternoon.

14th UPDATE, Sunday, 7:32 AM: In a down holiday weekend overall (about 43% from 2013), Paramount Pictures’ Transformers: Age Of Extinction ruled the Fourth of July holiday five-day weekend after opening in a clear field last weekend. Why is moviegoing down? Well, last year, the Fourth fell on a Thursday and we had Universal’s huge hit Despicable Me 2 which opened to a big $83.5M. So there it is. Now to the very long weekend:

Transformers had a Friday to Friday drop of a whopping 75%, but its previous Friday was artificially high given that $8.75M came from Thursday late nights. It dominated mid-week moviegoing and yesterday brought in yet another $14.6M or so. With an expected 25% to 30% drop on Sunday, the Michael Bay-directed franchise should have a $35.5M to $36M three-day and a $52.8M to $53.4M five-day holiday weekend. Rentrak noted just now that Transformers is the first summer film to hold at No. 1 for two consecutive weekends, so thank you for that. Paramount is claiming this AM that its monster hit just sneaked over the $400M mark internationally (with $400.9M).

While East and Northeast Coasters were braving the rain (which actually helped Friday box office attendance rise up a bit), Tammy braved lousy reviews to snooker a $21.1M three-day and probably around a $32.9M five day. The Melissa McCarthy comedy helmed by her husband Ben Falcone from a script that they both wrote, was distributed by Warner Bros. With a net negative cost of $22M to $24M budget (not including marketing and distribution costs) — the studio claims $20M — McCarthy is going to have to wait a bit before she gets her payday when the pic hits break-even.

Sony takes the next two spots in the holiday box office chart. After four weeks in release, Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Street emerged ahead of the pack last night after a 62% jump from Friday to Saturday to grab the No. 3 spot while the other two newcomers — Jerry Bruckheimer’s Deliver Us  From Evil and Relativity’s family film Earth to Echo — tried to get a foothold. The Screen Gems’ horror flick also enjoyed a big 62% bump Saturday and will deliver what is expected to be a $9.3M three-day weekend with around $14.8M for the five-day. It takes No. 4. Deliver Us From Evil was said to be a $30M+ budget. “22 Jump Street continues to kick butt, and we are satisfied with the performance of Deliver Us From Evil,” said Rory Bruer, president of worldwide distribution. Asked what he attributed the large percentage jumps for both pics to, he said simply, “Our demos were more available during the holiday.” Sony is projecting that Deliver Us From Evil will surpass 22 Jump Street for the three-day holiday and have it pegged as $9.5M v. $9.4M, respectively. We’ll see what happens today.

Fox/DreamWorks’ Animation How to Train Your Dragon 2, even after dropping over 450 theaters and after four weeks in the marketplace, bested the live-action Earth to Echo to round out the Top Five. As expected, the dragons have legs and run in with another $8.7M for the three-day and around $13.2M for the five-day to bring its cume to $140M. Comparatively, Disney’s Maleficent — which has had two more weeks of play, but still — has enchanted worldwide audiences this summer and has conjured up a total cume of $213.7M domestically and with an estimated $416.3M internationally to cross $600M worldwide this weekend. Helluva performance and for more see Nancy Tartaglione’s international box office report. The third family-targeted film in the market — Earth to Echo: It will end up with a $13.4M five-day on what is claimed to be a $13M budget (not counting marketing and distribution costs). It grossed about $8M+ for the three-day. The chart is on its way.

1). Transformers: Age of Extinction (PAR), 4,233 theaters (0) / $7.7M Wed. / $9.6M Thurs. / $10.6M Fri. (-75%) / $14.6M Sat. / $10.2M to $10.9M Sun. (-25% to 30%) / 3-day est. cume: $35.9M to $36.4M / 5-day cume: $52.9M to $53.4M / Total est. cume: $173.9M to $174.6M / Wk 2

2). Tammy (WB), 3,465 theaters / $6.2M Wed. / $5.5M Thurs. / $6.4M Fri. / $8.6M Sat. / $6.47M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $21M+ / 5-day cume: $32.9M / Wk 1

3/4). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,324 theaters (-12) / $1.9M Wed. / $2.4M Thurs. / $2.5M Fri. / $4M Sat. (+62%) / $2.8M to $3M Sun. (-25% to -30%) / 3-day cume: $9.4M / 5-day cume: $13.8M to $14M+ / Total cume: $158.8M / Wk 4

Deliver Us From Evil (SONY), 3,049 theaters / $2.8M Wed. / $2.6M Thurs. / $2.52M Fri. / $4.1M Sat. (+62%) / $2.6M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $9.3M to $9.5M / 5-day cume: $14.8M / Wk 1

5). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 3,297 theaters (-453) / $1.9M Wed. / $2.4M Thurs. / $2.77M Fri. / $3.38M Sat. (+23%) / $2.7M Sun. (-20%) / 3-day cume: $8.7M / 5-day cume: $13.2M / Total cume: $140M / Wk 4

6). Earth to Echo (REL), 3,320 theaters / $2.6M Wed. / $2.6M Thurs. / $2.63M Fri. / $3.1M Sat. (+19%) / $2.4M Sun. (-20%) / 3-day cume: $8.2M / 5-day cume: $13.4M / Wk 1

7). Maleficent (DIS), 2,389 theaters (-684) / $1.2M Wed. / $1.5M Thurs. / $1.8M Fri. / $2.3M Sat. (+30%) / $1.7M Sun. (-25%) 3-day cume: $5.94M / 5-day cume: $8.7M / Total expected cume: $213.7M / Wk 6

8). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,630 theaters (-275) / $880K Wed. / $1.1M Thurs. / $1.78M Fri. / $1.9M Sat. (+7%) / $1.3M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $5M+ / 5-day cume: $6.9M to $7M / Total cume: $36.6M / Wk 3

9). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 1,729 theaters (-496) / $825K Wed. / $1M Thurs. / $1.3M Fri. / $2.1M Sat. (+60%) / $1.36M Sun. (-35%) (Sony thinks $1.47M on Sunday) / 3-day cume: $4.78M / 5-day cume: $6.7M / Total cume: $57.1M / Wk 3

10). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 1,538 theaters (-997) / $525K Wed. / $815K Thurs. / $1M Fri. / $1.5M Sat. (+51%) / $1.1M Sun. (-25%) 3-day cume: $3.64M / 5-day cume: $4.98M / Total cume: $90.8M / Wk 5

13th UPDATE, Saturday, 11:32 PM: Transformers: Age of Extinction is expected to take in around $14M to $14.5M Saturday night (+34.4%) on track for a possible $35M to $36M three weekend and a $53M or so five-day for Paramount Pictures. Tammy took in between $8M and $8.3M today — up around 28% — for an estimated three-day gross of around $20M+ and a five-day expected at $32M for Warner Bros. While Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Street is taking the No. 3 spot for the weekend with a $9.32M estimate and a $14M+ five-day gross.

The other two openers: Sony’s Deliver Us From Evil got around a 53% increase night to night to take in around $3.85M and is now expected to scare in around $8.85M to $9M+ for the three-day weekend and $14.27M for the five-day. Relativity’s Earth to Echo may take in $7.5M for three-day and around $12.7M to $13M. The family film unearthed around $2.7M on Saturday for a small 2.6% bump.

Meanwhile, Fox/DreamWork Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 looks like it grossed about $3.1M and now is expected to have a three-day gross of $8.3M and a five-day gross of $12.74M to $13M. It’s a horse race still.

One distributor noted that the weekend is off around 45% now from last year. Until the AM, that’s all the math I can bear for one day.

12th UPDATE, Saturday, 7:48 AM: This morning it’s a little easier to discern the pecking order but where they will ultimately sit depends on how the family fare plays today on what is expected to be a good family movie going day. Paramount’s Transformers: Age of Extinction took a 75% drop Friday to Friday (last week included those $8.75M late nights) but is on its way for a leading three-day ($37M to $40M) and five-day gross (maybe $54.4M). Tammy, the Melissa McCarthy comedy that ain’t from Warner Bros. is expected in at around $22M+ for the three-day weekend which puts the opening 43% below The Heat, 15% below Bridesmaids and 35.6% down from Identity Thief’s  — in other words, the worst opening of her last four movies — which makes you wonder if audiences are finding her schtick getting old. We know the critics are. This was a pic that McCarthy co-scripted with her husband Ben Falcone who also directed. No one likes to hear that their baby is ugly, but they delivered a ‘don’t-look-at-me-I’m-hideous’ mess. The five-day gross estimate is $33.8M on a budget of around $22M to $24M (not counting marketing and distribution costs).

That leaves us with the rest of the pack which looks to be Fox/DreamWorks’ How to Train Your Dragon 2 or Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Street in the third spot; both have been playing quite well with during their four weeks in the marketplace. Then we have the other two openers: Earth to Echo from Relativity is looking for the bump that the family audiences can bring today and tomorrow and is expected to have a three-day cume of $9M to $10M; likewise with the bloody horror film Deliver Us From Evil. Both Sony and Warner Bros. have three films each in the Top Ten this Fourth of July holiday. Sony with 22, Evil and Think Like a Man; Warner Bros. with Tammy, Jersey Boys and Edge of Tomorrow, the latter both quality films. The chart follows and enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend!

1). Transformers: Age of Extinction (PAR), 4,233 theaters (0) / $7.7M Wed. / $9.6M Thurs. / $10.67M Fri. (-75%) / 3-day est. cume: $37M to $40M / 5-day cume: $54M+ / Total est. cume: $175M to $178M / Wk 2

2). Tammy (WB), 3,465 theaters / $6.2M Wed. / $5.5M Thurs. / $6.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $22.2M / 5-day cume: $33.8M / Wk 1

3/4). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,324 theaters (-12) / $1.9M Wed. / $2.4M Thurs. / $2.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.5M to $9.8M / 5-day cume: $14M+ / Total cume: $157M+ / Wk 4

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 3,297 theaters (-453) / $1.9M Wed. / $2.4M Thurs. / $2.77M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.7M to $10M+ / 5-day cume: $14M+ / Total cume: $141M to $142M / Wk 4

5/6). Earth to Echo (REL), 3,320 theaters / $2.6M Wed. / $2.6M Thurs. / $2.63M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.2M to $9.8M / 5-day cume: $13M to $15M / Wk 1

Deliver Us From Evil (SONY), 3,049 theaters / $2.8M Wed. / $2.6M Thurs. / $2.52M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8.5M to $9M+ / 5-day cume: $13M to $15M / Wk 1

7). Maleficent (DIS), 2,389 theaters (-684) / $1.2M Wed. / $1.5M Thurs. / $1.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.2M to $6.7M / 5-day cume: $9M / Total expected cume: $214M+ / Wk 6

8). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,630 theaters (-275) / $880K Wed. / $1.1M Thurs. / $1.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6M to $6.5M / 5-day cume: $8M+ / Total cume: $37.5M to $38M / Wk 3

9). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 1,729 theaters (-496) / $825K Wed. / $1M Thurs. / $1.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.75M / 5-day cume: $6.7M / Total cume: $57M / Wk 3

10). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 1,538 theaters (-997) / $525K Wed. / $815K Thurs. / $1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.6M / 5-day cume: $4.98M / Total cume: $90.8M / Wk 5

11th UPDATE, Friday, 11:20 PM: Looks like the Fourth of July weekend is going to be down about 40% from last year when the holiday fell on a Thursday. In 2013, we had Despicable Me opening to a whopping $83.5M and a number of big movies including The Heat, Monsters University, World War Z, and Man of Steel. (er, we also had The Lone Ranger) playing. For the best comparison, we have to look back to 2003 and 2008 — the last times we had a 4th of July fall on a Friday and a five-day box office ride. In 2008, Sony opened Hancock on a Wednesday to earn a weekend gross of $62.6M and a total cume of $103.8M. Also Wall-E was in its second weekend and also did respectable business. More to come in the AM and hopefully, the positions for this July 4th will be better sorted out.

10th UPDATE, Friday, 10:45 PM: As many people in the Northeast were dealing with the rains and winds leftover from what turned into a tropical storm, and those on the West Coast are watching the fireworks (can still hear them going off), box office estimates are rolling in. Sans the weather, it’s a fairly uneventful Fourth of July at the box office this year with Paramount’s Transformers: Age of Extinction not surprisingly leading the pack. The monster hit is expected to bring in about $38M+ for the three-day, down about 60.7% from its opening three-day debut weekend and a whopping 74% down from its opening day (which takes into account the stellar $8.75M from late nights last weekend).

It should gross about $55.5M for the five-day to bring its total cume to around $176M+. It’s doing gangbusters in international territories, too having bowed to a whopping $91.9M in China last weekend.

Debuting in second is the Melissa McCarthy-starring comedy Tammy from Warner Bros. which cost anywhere from $22M to $24M (not counting marketing and distribution costs) and will gross about $21M+ for the weekend and about $32M+ for the five-day. McCarthy, who co-scripted with her husband Ben Falcone (who directed) is set to get a nice payday once this picture breaks even so she has a way to go on this one. And with a C+ CinemaScore and the picture just getting slammed by the critics, the word-of-mouth ain’t gonna be good.

After that, it’s a horse race (chart follows).

No. 3 could be Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Street in its fourth weekend out or Sony’s Deliver Us From Evil in its first-week bow (Yes, the studio is competing with itself) or Earth to Echo or How to Train Your Dragon 2. Right now, it’s just too close to tell (see chart below) and it’s all just a big ol logjam. Of all the new pics, it’s this horror film from Jerry Bruckheimer that has been delivering the most social activity across YouTube, Facebook and Twitter, according to RelishMix. Fan pages for Eric Bana and Olivia Munn’s are promoting the pic heavily and what’s interesting is that there are a bunch of YouTube videos interviewing the author and former NYPD cop Ralph Sarchie that are reposting well, likely due to the marketing campaign tagline that states: “Inspired by the actual accounts of an NYPD sergeant.”

Family films are battling it out as Fox/DreamWorks’How To Train Your Dragon 2 and Relativity’s Earth to Echo each are expected to take around $14M+ for the five-day.

NOTEWORTHY: I noticed that some commenters were wondering about the performance of a couple of other pics this weekend, namely TWC’s Begin Again and Radius’ Snowpiercer. Okay, so, here we go: Begin Again, which stars Mark Ruffalo and Keira Knightley started rolling out on 175 screens Wednesday in the top 45 markets after a solid opening last weekend. It had an A- CinemaScore and was 76% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. This film from writer/director John Carney (Once) is expected to take in around $1.38M for the three-day which gives it an excellent per screen of around $8K. It’s a date movie so counter-programming during the summer.

Snowpiercer is the sci-fi, apocalyptic thriller from director Bong Joon-ho and stars Chris Evans in this violent romp. On 250 runs, it should end the 3-day with $1.1M and the five-day with $1.4M for a nice per screen of around $4,520. It’s a bit early but this is how the chart looks now. Will do more calculations as more numbers come in tonight:

1). Transformers: Age of Extinction (PAR), 4,233 theaters (0) / $7.7M Wed. / $9.6M Thurs. / $11M Fri. (-74%) / 3-day est. cume: $38M to $40M / 5-day cume: $55.5M / Total est. cume: $176M to $178M+ / Wk 2

2). Tammy (WB), 3,465 theaters / $6.2M Wed. / $5.5M Thurs. / $6.35M Fri. / 3-day cume: $21M / 5-day cume: $32M+ / Wk 1

3/4/5/6). Earth to Echo (REL), 3,320 theaters / $2.6M Wed. / $2.6M Thurs. / $2.55M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.5M to $10.5M / 5-day cume: $14.8M to $16M / Wk 1

22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,324 theaters (-12) / $1.9M Wed. / $2.4M Thurs. / $2.55M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.5M / 5-day cume: $14.5M / Total cume: $141M+/ Wk 4

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 3,297 theaters (-453) / $1.9M Wed. / $2.4M Thurs. / $2.75M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9.7M to $10M+ / 5-day cume: $14M+ / Total cume: $141M to $142M / Wk 4

Deliver Us From Evil (SONY), 3,049 theaters / $2.8M Wed. / $2.6M Thurs. / $2.55M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M to $10M+ / 5-day cume: $14.5M to $15.5M / Wk 1

7). Maleficent (DIS), 2,389 theaters (-684) / $1.2M Wed. / $1.5M Thurs. / $1.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.5M to $7M / 5-day cume: $9.3M / Total expected cume: $214M+ / Wk 6

8). Jersey Boys (WB) 2,630 theaters (-275) / $880K Wed. / $1.1M Thurs. / $1.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.4M to $6.8M / 5-day cume: $8.3M / Total cume: $37M to $38M / Wk 3

9). Think Like A Man Too (SONY), 1,729 theaters (-496) / $825K Wed. / $1M Thurs. / $1.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.2M / 5-day cume: $7.1M / Total cume: $57M to $58M / Wk 3

10). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 1,538 theaters (-997) / $525K Wed. / $815K Thurs. / $1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.7M / 5-day cume: $5.1M / Total cume: $91M+ / Wk 5

9th UPDATE, FRIDAY, 7:40 AM: This has got to be one of the most boring five-day box office holidays in history when I’m sitting here looking at the weather radar to see how the U.S. is faring, how badly the East Coast and Northeast is faring, and which areas will be most impacted by Arthur. If it’s raining not too badly, it may drive people into the theaters, but high winds and sheets of rain could cripple the Northeast. Bummer for the East Coasters as no one bargained for this on the Fourth of July. So, this morning, let’s look at the Top Ten lineup and how it stacks up:

Transformers: Age Of Extinction which, Paramount Pictures I’m sure is trying to figure out where to make up that $2.5M or so shortage after it fudged its numbers over its opening weekend on its smash-fest hit to make it look like the first $100M picture of the year. Hey, it’s a small town and everyone knows, even those inside the studio itself. So how will they proceed during this holiday week? In other words, are they shaving the difference off the pic’s mid-week grosses or will they just figure in a bigger percentage drop on the weekend to compensate? It’s clearly No. 1 and estimates are that it has made around $38.3M this week so far (after grossing about $9.6M last night, up 25% from Wednesday) before the 3-day weekend gears up today which brings its cume up to $135.8M. It’s in 4,233 theaters. The fact is and remains, the town has yet to see a $100M opener this year.

Related: Paramount Stakes Claim to $100M Opening Weekend, No One’s Buying It

Tammy has grossed about $11.7M since opening on Wednesday for Warner Bros. so it looks like it could have a five-day run of $29M-$30M. The film obviously lacks quality, but so do many others that I have seen this year and they still manage to sucker in an audience to make a decent opening gross. Most, however, rely on explosions and gunfire to propel the action and viewer interest rather than unfunny bits that lead nowhere. It was down 11% from night to night. How much did it cost? Hilariously, I had Warner Bros. execs whisper wildly different budget numbers to me — as one said, “it only cost $13M” followed immediately by another saying, “it only cost $20M.” UPDATE: Just got some real info on the picture … its net negative cost — and this is an estimate anywhere from $22M to $24M+ (plus marketing and distribution costs) with star Melissa McCarthy getting a nice chunk of change when the movie hits break-even. There you go and thank you!

Deliver Us From Evil, a horror film from the king of big-budget explosions — producer Jerry Bruckheimer — is at $5.5M cume in two days to take the No. 3 spot before family weekend. This is one of these, keep the budget low, doesn’t matter if it’s quality because the genre audience will come and we can always lessen the risk by casting a recognizable actor in the lead (Eric Bana) and we’ll make some dough. It was down 7% from night to night and received a B-. This one is on track for a five-day gross of roughly $14M.

Earth To Echo from Relativity — the picture that they picked up after Disney said no to its producer Andrew Panay — has made about $5.1M in two days and got the best CinemaScore from the bunch of newcomers with a very good A-. The picture, which is the directorial debut of Dave Green (and it kinda shows but good for him to have landed a film after helming a number of shorts), is said to be around $13M for its negative cost, according to Relativity. It’s trying to make parents think it’s E.T., but guess what? It’s a far cry from the wonderful 1982 Steven Spielberg. Waiting for the family weekend audiences to buoy this one, but How To Train Your Dragon 2 and Maleficent are still in the marketplace this weekend so will take business away from this newbie. It was down 4% from night to night and is on track for a $13M to $14M five-day at the moment.

So will the fireworks.

Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Street rounds out the Top Five (with a $2.4M Thursday) The bottom six of the Top Ten are as follows: Dragon 2 ($2.4M Thurs.), Maleficent ($1.5M) , Jersey Boys ($1.1M), Think Like A Man Too ($1M), Edge Of Tomorrow ($810K) and The Fault In Our Stars ($765K). Hoping to see some overseas numbers this morning, so check back if you care to know. Noteworthy: There is one quality film that is doing some good business — Jon Favreau’s Chef topped $20M last night for Open Road Films which has been handling its release. Happy Fourth, Mr. Favreau and everyone else … and Happy Birthday!

8th UPDATE, Thursday, 10:30 PM: Tonight is the second day of the five-day holiday weekend for newcomers Tammy, Deliver Us From Evil and Earth To Echo and the Warner Bros.’ comedy starring Melissa McCarthy is leading the pack of the newbies, adding another estimated $5.5M to bring its two-day cume to $11.7M. Day to day, it was down 10%. The Jerry Bruckheimer-produced horror film Deliver Us From Evil is next with about $2.6M down about 8% from yesterday to bring its two-day total to roughly $5.4M while Relativity’s Earth To Echo garnered about $2.6M for a two-day cume of $5.2M. How To Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street — both in their third week of release came in with about $2.5M.  Of course, the holiday box office king is Transformers: Age Of Extinction which pulled in around $9.45M today, up around 23%. For this July 4th holiday, tonight plays more like a Friday night as everyone heads into this long weekend. More in the AM.

7th UPDATE, Thursday, 8:30 AM: AMC, one of the biggest theater chains in the nation with 4,945 screens which operates in the eight of the 10 highest grossing theaters in the U.S. (in the Big Three markets of New York, Los Angeles and Chicago) fixed its computer problems early this AM, releasing this statement: “A temporary technical issue caused some delays in hourly reporting last night. This was resolved by 3 a.m. Pacific. We are now reporting normally, and our Thursday reported grosses are accurate.” So the numbers below for the Top Ten, including newcomers Tammy, Earth To Echo and Deliver Us From Evil, are pretty accurate. Will update again soon as more estimates come flowing in on this all-important July 4th Box office week.

6th UPDATE, Thursday, 7:11 AM: Okay, still flying a bit blind, but will do the best we can right now, given the AMC Theaters issue which I understand is still not completely cleared up. Sources at AMC said it was a computer glitch and is hoping to clear it up this morning. It’s no surprise that Transformers: Age Of Extinction is going to take the box office crown this weekend with a Wednesday take of around $7.7M. In second place, as expected is Tammy which brought in about $6.18M (including the $1.3M from Tuesday previews). Deliver Us From Evil was third last night with about $2.8M on Wednesday, The gross for that pic rose from earlier in the day brought up, of course, by the late night crowd that fuels the genre. Earth To Echo, which should get a nice bump from the family audiences this Fourth of July holiday, was right on Evil‘s tail  with $2.6M yesterday. Earth To Echo may end up surpassing Evil as we head into the family friendly weekend. The last picture in the Top Five — 22 Jump Street — in its third week of release added another estimated $1.99M last night.

The rest of the Top Ten is playing out pretty much as expected with How To Train Your Dragon 2, also in its third week of release, good for $1.96M at No. 6 with Maleficent following with a $1.18M estimate. Sony/Screen Gems’ Think Like A Man Too had a $866K Wed; Jersey Boys cashed in about $859K for Warner Bros. and The Fault In Our Stars took the No. 10 spot on Wednesday for Fox with about 684K.

5th UPDATE, Wednesday, 11:00 PM: No more numbers will be reported until AMC gets its technical issues resolved. In the meantime, not unexpected news for Melissa McCarthy and her filmmaker husband Ben Falcone — Tammy only received a C+ CinemaScore which means word-of-mouth is going to torpedo this baby. Still, it should get the No. 2 spot this weekend, no problem. On the other end of the spectrum, Earth to Echo received an A- so families are enjoying this movie from Relativity and Deliver Us from Evil’s CinemaScore was a B- for filmmaker Jerry Bruckheimer and Screen Gems. Let’s see what the morning brings. Night all.

4th UPDATE, Wednesday, 9:08 PM: Kansas City-based AMC Theatres is said to be experiencing technical difficulties transmitting hourly grosses, so no numbers have been reported since 4 p.m. today. I was wondering as it was quiet until now. The theater chain (which includes Loews) has 341 locations and 4,945 screens and operates eight of the 10 highest-grossing theaters in the country. It also boasts the biggest market share in the country’s top three cities of New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Although grosses are incomplete, here is what they look like tonight based on partial reports. Paramount’s Transformers: Age of Extinction has pulled in about $8M. Following the monster hit is the Warner Bros’ comedy Tammy with around $7M (remember, that includes last night’s $1.3M gross). Relativity’s Earth To Echo is running around $3.5M, and Sony/Screen Gems’ horror flick Deliver Us From Evil is around $3M — all based on the best numbers we can get right now. Rounding out the Top Five is How to Train Your Dragon 2 with about $1.9M. That’s a partial reporting, and lthough the numbers are far from complete, this at least gives an idea of the pecking order. We’ll see if AMC will be able to resolve its issues by later tonight. More to come … hopefully.

3rd UPDATE, Wednesday, 1:08 PM: Based on matinee numbers so far, Tammy looks like it might gross $7M to $8M today (which would include late shows), on track for a $33M to $36M Fourth of July holiday weekend. It will need strong word-of-mouth to push it there, but as it looks now it’s gotten lukewarm reception, it maybe will take in $26M or lower for the 3-day weekend. Earth To Echo and Deliver Us From Evil are on track to unearth anywhere from $3.5M to $4M for Echo and $3M to $3.5M for Evil for Wednesday. It’s still way early, but right now the two pictures are tracking closely — with Echo pulling in maybe in the low-to-mid teens with Evil maybe low teens for the holiday (maybe $12M to $15M). That’s how it looks now, but there are so many factors that will be influencing these numbers. Most of the Evil crowd will start coming in tonight. We also are watching the weather on the East Coast. Earth To Echo, which Relativity picked up after Disney said nah, might do a little better over the weekend given that there is no new family fare. But none of these pictures is getting good reception from critics, and none is doing bang-up business. It’s blah like the weather on the East Coast.

2nd UPDATE, Wednesday, 8:03 AM: The Melissa McCarthy-starring comedy Tammy kicked off its five-day weekend with a late-night grab of around $1.3M for Warner Bros, signaling the start of the Fourth of July holiday frame. That’s a good start for the comedy directed by McCarthy’s husband Ben Falcone and co-starring Susan Sarandon. One note: For all pictures, we have the weather to consider this weekend as a hurricane/tropical storm is preparing to hit the East Coast.

Tammy‘s late nights started at 8 PM across the country on a Tuesday, so it is a tough apples-to-apples comparison to make with other films. One distrib noted that We’re The Millers opened last August to $1.7M and had a $26.4M opening weekend. Other comps provided were A Million Ways To Die In The West with $891K, The Other Woman with $550K, Heat with $1M, and Identity Thief with $450K.

Hopefully for Warner Bros, Tammy will do closer to The Other Woman, which opened to $24.7M in April and is now at $82.7M. We’ll see, but it has the distinction of being the only female-themed comedy to come along since. It looks like maybe $5M tonight and then tomorrow night will play more like a Friday night so, maybe $25M for three-day and $35M for the five-day. Only time will tell. This is a long holiday weekend after all.

Deliver Us From Evil and Earth To Echo both had midnight showings. We were told that because it was a Tuesday, Sony opted out of evening shows on the Jerry Bruckheimer horror flick. No midnight grosses have been reported by either distributor Sony or Relativity, respectively.

If you look at other grosses last night, Transformers: Age Of Extinction grossed around $10.3M last night, with How To Train Your Dragon 2 flying in with $2.6M and 22 Jump Street grossing about $2.2M; both are in their third week of release and all had a full day of play unlike Tammy. Just to show where the rest of the pack might line up as we head into the Fourth of July holiday. It will likely be a logjam after No. 1 and No. 2.

I did not dig up budgets for this weekend openers, so will have to go with what I hear from studio execs (unfortunately): That being said, Tammy was around $20M Warner Bros. claims and Earth To Echo about $13M. That doesn’t include marketing and distribution costs, of course. Deliver Us From Evil was said to be around $30M+ as well. But all of these pics are modestly budgeted fare. Earth To Echo and Deliver Us From Evil could be a horse race — you have the late-night crowd coming out for the horror films and Relativity is hoping for the family audience bump that this week might bring.

PREVIOUSLY, Tuesday, 9:10 AM: The Fourth of July holiday starts at the box office tonight as three pictures are debuting in hopes of grabbing moviegoers away from the powerful franchise pic Transformers: Age Of Extinction. The three newcomers are Warner Bros’ comedy Tammy, starring Melissa McCarthy and Susan Sarandon; Relativity’s family offering Earth To Echo; and Sony/Screen Gems’ horror film Deliver Us From Evil from producer Jerry Bruckheimer.

Tammy, co-scripted and directed by McCarthy’s husband Ben Falcone, bows at 8 PM, and Earth To Echo and Deliver Us From Evil both will be playing midnights. It’s going to be a five-day holiday push with Transformers’ Monday night numbers probably going  as high as much as Earth To Echo‘s full three-day weekend. The fourth installment of the Paramount’s franchise directed by Michael Bay came in around $10.9M last night. We don’t expect much from the late-night grosses for the new openers tonight.

The No. 1 and No. 2 pictures are pretty clear right now as Transformers will dominate, followed by Tammy. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as we expect a horse race with Deliver Us From Evil and Earth To Echo neck in neck and the fourth weekend of 22 Jump Street still in play, which was good for around $2.5M last night. So logjamming it after the No. 1 and No. 2 spots. Earth To Echo will be competing for families already enamored by Disney’s Maleficent and Fox/DreamWorks Animation’s How To Train Your Dragon 2 for the past few weeks and it’s not even in the same ballpark as those performers. Deliver Us From Evil is the first of the horror genre to come along in awhile, so audiences might bite, though the marketing looks like something for a TV movie.

Also interesting to note: This is the first time July 4th has fallen on a Friday since 2008, when Hancock bowed on a Wednesday, ended up making $103M.  So this is another holiday of five-day and three-day grosses and we will be reporting on both (of course). Traditionally, July 4th is the most unpredictable movie going day of the year and is largely dependent on weather. If it rains, as it looks like it’s forecast now in parts of the South and much of the East Coast, it will drive people to the theaters. As one exhib exec told me, “grosses on a rainy matinee are like Sat nights.” So will be watching the weather, especially if a hurricane or tropical storm washes out part of the Southeast.