UPDATE, 7:05 AM: Add Cowen & Co’s Doug Creutz to the list of analysts lowering their revenue estimates for How To Train Your Dragon 2 — and DreamWorks Animation — after the film’s second weekend. Today he cut his domestic box office forecast for Dragon 2 by 28% to $180M — less than the previous film’s $218M. And he dropped his international BO projection by 11.9% to $495M. The upshot: DWA should end 2014 with a 7 cent per share loss, not the 28 cent profit he had anticipated. While bulls look ahead to higher TV revenues and lower film costs in 2016, “given recent film performance and an upcoming film slate that has few obvious winners, DWA still appears to us to be a relatively unappealing stock,” he says.
PREVIOUS, Monday PM: The stock price fell 4.2% to $23.44 today after a second lower-than-expected weekend for How To Train Your Dragon 2, for a 16.2% drop since the Friday before the film opened. Dragon 2 generated $25.3M at domestic box offices, down 49% from its opening weekend, for a total of $95.1M. With this trajectory, the film “will likely miss our 6-week est. of $230M,” Wells Fargo’s Marci Ryvicker says. B. Riley’s Eric Wold cut his domestic forecast by 36% to $175M, and his international by 20% to $400M. As a result, the analyst trimmed his target price for DreamWorks Animation shares from $37 to $32. He cut his revenue estimate for the company’s current fiscal year by 5.5%, and cash flow forecast by 14.8% to $109M. Even so, Wold says that “international trends are too early to call and could surprise to the upside.”
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