OPENING: The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), beyond expectations with around $48M after 52% Saturday slide; Edge Of Tomorrow (WBros.), won’t crack $30M and expected at No. 3. Noteworthy: Chef (OPRD) respectable in expansion.
4th UPDATE, SUNDAY: 7:18 AM: This morning looks much like it did late last night. The Fault In Our Stars is hovering around $48M, having experienced a 52% Saturday slide. Blame it on the combo of the $25 tickets from the simulcast and that phenom $8.2M Thursday late night, but even still the math shows that even still it took a 29% hit. The simulcast brought in about $2.4M of Thursday. Regardless, the fact is that it’s still a heck of an opening weekend, driven by the young, female demo (82% of the audience). The romantic tearjerker grossed $12.6M on Saturday. Was waiting for Fox, but they just weighed in at 8:01 AM with $48.2M for the three-day, figuring as we did a 25% decline today. Next weekend, it is expected to take another hit, not necessarily because of the arrival of 22 Jump Street (debuting in the UK now) or How To Train Your Dragon 2, but because of the film’s subject matter. Kudos again to Fox for a job well done all the way around.
“The question is when will we cross over past the fan base and the odds are very good,” said Chris Aronson, Fox’s president of domestic distribution. “It’s just a question of time. It was a unique property that was remarkably executed. It’s one of those rare times where everything came together flawlessly with every division throughout Fox.” Couldn’t agree more.
As I said, in the second spot was Disney’s Maleficent which is expected to end the weekend down 51% in its sophomore frame for a total three-day of around $33.6M (and will be impacted next weekend by the arrival of How To Train Your Dragon 2). After 10 days, its cume will be $127.6M and over $335M worldwide. Warner Bros.’ Edge of Tomorrow, the Tom Cruise tentpole whose stakes got stuck a little too deeply in the mud, will end up around $28.4M-$29.1M (depending on the percentage drop today) after a flat $10.4M Saturday. 3D formats accounted for 47% with 349 IMAX screens accounting for $14% of the total gross or $4.1M. Look to international to try to get out of the domestic muck as Cruise still an international presence, but it seems that after a few misfires, he has worn out his welcome right now with audiences on this side of the pond. The tagline, “Live. Die. Repeat.” has taken on new meaning this morning. Perhaps a good pairing with the right director on material other than action genre like he did with Cameron Crowe (I don’t know, can you catch lightening in a bottle twice?) would change the direction his career is going in the states. However, that is what sells overseas for him. Last year, Oblivion opened to $37M in April and went onto gross $197M internationally … but only $89.1M domestically. The good news at the moment is that the two-day haul in China (Edge Of Tomorrow opened Friday there) was nearly double what Oblivion did in its first three days there (see related story from our international box office reporter, Nancy Tartaglione, who just posted international numbers for all films here). Still, a tough spot for Cruise’s career.
Warner Bros., however, is much more optimistic and says they believe it will continue to play. “Audiences who see this movie, love it,” said Jeff Goldstein, EVP Distribution at the studio. “And if you look around the world this weekend, we’re No. 1 with $111M globally. We’re confident that it’s going to have legs. The reviews are strong, Rotten Tomatoes is 89% fresh and the ‘liked it’ category is 92%. Audiences clearly enjoy it.” I have also heard that it’s good from those who have seen it. So, time will tell.
The other offering in its second weekend was Universal’s A Million Ways To Die In The West which ate dust to slide 57%. It will take in around $7M+. And last, Jon Favreau’s Chef, which has really been enjoying positive word-of-mouth for distrib Open Road, is expected to gross another $2.45M to raise its cume to around $10.3M. A movie on a lot of adults’ to-see list. Here’s how it looks to play out this weekend. Final numbers will be in tomorrow and the chart is on its way:
1). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,171 theaters / $26.1M Fri. / $12.6M Sat. (-52%) / $9.5M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $48M+ / Wk 1
2) Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters (0) / $10.1M Fri. / $13.45M Sat. (+32%) / $10M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $33.6M (-52%) / Total expected cume: $127.6M / Wk 2
3). Edge Of Tomorrow (WB), 3,490 theaters / $10.6M Fri. / $10.45M Sat. (-1%) / $7.3M to $7.9M Sun. (-25% to 30%) / 3-day cume: $28.4M to $29.1M / Wk 1
4). X-Men: Days Of Future Past (FOX), 3,639 theaters (-362) / $4.5M Fri. / $6.2M Sat. (+37%) / $4M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $14.7M (-56%) / Total cume: $189M+ / Wk 3
5). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 3,160 theaters (+2) / $2.2M Fri. / $2.89M Sat. (+29%) / $1.8M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $7M+ (-57%) / Total cume: $30M / Wk 2
6). Godzilla (WB), 3,110 theaters (-391) / $1.7M Fri. / $2.5M Sat. (+41%) / $1.6M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $5.89M (-50%) / Total cume: $185M / Wk 4
7). Neighbors (UNI), 2,674 theaters (-265) / $1.6M Fri. / $2.1M Sat. (+32%) / $1.3M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $5.2M (-36%) / Total cume: $137.8M / Wk 5
8). Blended (WB), 2,928 theaters (-627) / $1.26M Fri. / $1.6M Sat. (+32%) / $989K Sun. (-40%) / 3-day cume: $3.9M (-51%) / Total cume: $36.45M / Wk 3
9). Chef (OPRD), 1,298 theaters (+674) / $720K Fri. / $1.97M Sat. (+53%) / $653K to $775K Sun. (-35% to 40%) / 3-day cume: $2.45M to $2.6M (+29%) / Total cume: $10.36M / Wk 5
10). Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 1,643 theaters (-686) / $581K Fri. / $812K Sat. (+38%) / $485K Sun. (-40%) / 3-day cume: $1.9M (-47%) / Total cume: $31.4M/ Wk 2
3rd UPDATE, SATURDAY, 11 PM: After a Saturday slide of around 53%, The Fault In Our Stars is expected to gross about $12.3M tonight to bring its estimate down to around $48M for the three-day weekend. Still sitting pretty fantastic for a film that the studio said cost around $12M. It’s already break-even and will be a profitable film for Fox. Disney’s Maleficent remains in a strong second with around $13.45M Saturday for an expected $33M+ weekend (down about 52% from last weekend).
That brings us to Edge Of Tomorrow from Warner Bros. which was flat Saturday with roughly $10.6M which means it’s not gonna crack $30M, more like $27M to $28M. It is doing well overseas for Mr. Cruise, however with most recent numbers reported by my colleague Nancy Tartaglione here.
X-Men: Days of Future Past (with roughly $6.2M on Saturday) and A Million Ways to Die in the West (with about $2.9M) round out the Top Five with what looks to be a $15M and $6.95M three-day weekend for the two, respectively. Will update when more is known, but that is how it has been looking throughout the day and this evening.
2ND UPDATE, SATURDAY, 10:08 AM: Watching The Fault In Our Stars sliding down today already, so revised the percentages in the copy below. Regardless, this is an incredible opening for a small-budgeted pic. The playability is a question for the subject matter, but it could end up as this generation’s Love Story. More later.
UPDATE, SATURDAY, 7:50 AM: To infinity and … The Fault In Our Stars, by all accounts, will head past $50M, even with a bigger like 40% drop today (which could happen based on the $8.2M and the $25 ticket prices for the simulcast), it would still put it at $53.7M; others have it as high as $57M with a lesser percentage drop. A higher percentage drop would take it around $50M or under.
At 7:52 AM (happens every time, seconds to minutes after I post), Fox is also weighing in now — they say it got a $26.1M gross after last night and is playing it more conservatively at $52M so they clearly think it’s going to drop higher than other estimates. So everyone is getting ready for what we all know is going to be a significant Saturday slide, but, no matter, because after its first weekend, the movie (whose title comes from William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar), is well on its way to profitability.
On the flip side, The Tom Cruise sci-fi action pic from Warner Bros., Edge Of Tomorrow will be lucky to hit $30M but international numbers should lift it up … probably not high enough. The popcorn movie even took over the IMAX screens this weekend … the key question is can it make a profit? Let’s face it, it’s gonna be a tough one. I gotta think this is not just about Cruise but also tentpole fatigue. I mean, at some point, audiences just gotta look at one after another of these pictures and say, ‘Been there, done that.’ Perhaps, Hollywood needs to get back to its roots — the moviemaking of the 1940s or 1970s where story and characters were the key, not explosions and CGI effects. Speaking of which, Disney’s CGI-laden Maleficent is expected to drop about 50% in its second weekend out to take in about $4M more than the Cruise pic. Thanks, in large part, to Angelina Jolie who embraces her character with a vengeance. And Chef from Open Road, is doing well in its expansion — a character/story-driven film by Jon Favreau.
A few weeks back when I took a week off, one of my colleagues talked about female appeal of Fox’s The Other Woman having a “well-rounded cast.” Now it’s my turn to talk about a well-rounded female cast … in a different way. I don’t know why Fox is looking outside the studio as it already has the strong woman it needs in Elizabeth Gabler. Sure, she had a best-selling book to work with but it was a love story with the C-word so a risk. She kept the budget in line and put it forward. She is already known for her great taste in movies that are quality and commercial (Life of Pi, The Devil Wears Prada). Another woman who deserves recognition for the perfectly-devised trailer is Cami Sargent (as I said below but worth repeating). Erin Siminoff was the day to day production person. Then there’s Shailene Woodley, who proved to all that saw the film that she can carry a movie and is a serious actress. Forget Divergent, this girl has chops. Yes, there are males, too … author/YouTube Vlogger John Green from whom all things flowed, including millions of followers on social media (the key to reaching this demo), actor Ansel Elgort and that on-screen charisma with Woodley, the director Josh Boone and producers Marty Bowen and Wyck Godfrey who did the nudging. The adaptation from Scott Neustadter and Michael Weber was spot on. Also, kudos to George Dewey’s digital team, those in publicity, marketing and promotion. The Top Ten chart follows:
1). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,171 theaters / $26M+ Fri. / 3-day cume: $53M to $55M (Fox says $52M) / Wk 1
2) Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters (0) / $10.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $34M+ (-51%) / Total expected cume: $127.9M / Wk 2
3). Edge Of Tomorrow (WB), 3,490 theaters / $10.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $29.6M to $30.1M / Wk 1
4). X-Men: Days Of Future Past (FOX), 3,639 theaters (-362) / $4.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $14.6M to $15.65M (-52%) / Total cume: $190M+ / Wk 3
5). A Million Ways To Die In The West (UNI), 3,160 theaters (+2) / $2.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.8M (-59%) / Total cume: $29.8M / Wk 2
6). Godzilla (WB), 3,110 theaters (-391) / $1.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.2M (-48%) / Total cume: $185.4M / Wk 4
7). Neighbors (UNI), 2,674 theaters (-265) / $1.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $5M to $5.2M (-36%) / Total cume: $137.7M / Wk 5
8). Blended (WB), 2,928 theaters (-627) / $1.25M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.1M (-49%) / Total cume: $36.6M / Wk 3
9). Chef (OPRD), 1,298 theaters (+674) / $716K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.55M (+36%) / Total cume: $10.35M / Wk 5
10/11). Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 1,643 theaters (-686) / $565K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.9M (-46%) / Total cume: $31.5M/ Wk
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 1,481 theaters (-671) / $540K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.9M (-48%) / Total cume: $196.3M / Wk 6
PREVIOUSLY, FRIDAY, 11:09 PM: Fox is over the moon with the performance of The Fault In Our Stars as the YA drama has shot past all expectations with what is estimated to be a $23.5M to $25M haul (includes $8.2M late nights). It is on track to gross a whopping $53M+ by all accounts on a small budget (the studio says $12M), putting this picture onto a strong path of profitability. Fox is being more conservative and saying $48M for FSS (waiting to see the Saturday drop off). The romancer about teens falling in love despite terminal illness garnered an A CinemaScore tonight which is great news for word-of-mouth.
This pic was tracking off the charts on social media for the past month, and was bouyed by the perfectly cut trailer that danced well around the dire topic to spark interest across the country. For those of you wondering, that great trailer was put together by Fox’s little-known wunderkind Cami Sargent. The film, which stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort, is based on the best-selling book of the same name by John Green who has a huge social media following. Josh Boone directed the pic with Marty Bowen and Wyck Godfrey producing and Fox 2000 exec Elizabeth Gabler got the nudge and said, ‘okay.’
The Tom Cruise-starring Edge Of Tomorrow from Warner Bros. is expected to take the No. 3 spot behind Disney’s Maleficent‘s in its second weekend. Ouch! It got a B+ CinemaScore tonight. Maleficent is expected to drop 53% from last weekend for a total haul of around $32.6M to $35M compared to around $28M to $30M for Edge of Tomorrow. Sorry, Tom, better luck overseas where your muscles are still flexing. Here is how the Top Ten chart looks tonight and (as always) numbers and positions may change in the morning:
1). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,171 theaters / $23.5M to $25M+ Fri. / 3-day cume: $53M+ (Fox says lower at $48M) / Wk 1
2) Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters (0) / $9.8M to $10.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $32.6M to $35M (-53%) / Total expected cume: $126.5M / Wk 2
3). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,490 theaters / $10.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $28M to $30M / Wk 1
4). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 3,639 theaters (-362) / $4.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $14M to $16M (-51%) / Total cume: $189.5M to $190.5M / Wk 3
5). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 3,160 theaters (+2) / $2.2M to $2.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.3M to $7.5M (-55%) / Total cume: $30M+ / Wk 2
6). Godzilla (WB), 3,110 theaters (-391) / $1.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.3M (-47%) / Total cume: $185.4M / Wk 4
7). Neighbors (UNI), 2,674 theaters (-265) / $1.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.9M (-38%) / Total cume: $137.6M / Wk 5
8). Blended (WB), 2,928 theaters (-627) / $1.25M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.2M (-47%) / Total cume: $36.8M / Wk 3
9). Chef (OPRD), 1,298 theaters (+674) / $699K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.6M (+36%) / Total cume: $10.4M / Wk 5
10). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 1,481 theaters (-671) / $525K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.9M (-49%) / Total cume: $196.3M / Wk 6