OPENING: 22 Jump Street (SONY) looks like it may be $60M or a little under; How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX) should come in around $50M.

Box office still-22-jump-street03_FotorFINAL UPDATE, MONDAY, 1:11 PM: It’s the morning after and the harsh reality has set in. 22 Jump Street came in below $60M at $57M (still pretty darn good) while How to Train Your Dragon 2 tallied $49.5M when dust cleared this morning. What happened? Father’s Day, good weather, NBA Finals, and Stanley Cup finals in the top two TV markets (take your pick) all suppressed Sunday moviegoing a bit. 22 Jump Street mid-week numbers will be interesting to watch as there is a great possibility that it’s already been there-done that with its core fans, but this weekend only sees the opening of the older demo Jersey Boys from Clint Eastwood and the Kevin Hart-Tim Story re-teaming with Think Like A Man 2.

Dragon 2, although it  didn’t open to higher numbers as expected,still is well-executed and the distribution date was well chosen. Expect it to keep playing straight through to mid-July when Planes: Fire & Rescue bows from Disney as families will be looking to it and to Maleficent until then. (Earth to Echo comes out in between). Edge of Tomorrow edged out Fox’s The Fault in Our Stars this weekend as the latter took a bad tumble, down 69% in its second weekend. Edge is actually holding fairly steady (-43%) but this is a big-budget bummer for Warner Bros. at the domestic box office. Here’s final chart for Father’s Day weekend:

1). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters / 3-day estimated cume: $57M / Per screen average: $17,263 / Wk 1

2). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,253 theaters / 3-day cume: $49.4M / Per screen: $11,627 / Wk 1

3). Maleficent (DIS), 3,623 theaters (-325) / 3-day cume: $18.5M (-46%) / Per screen: $5,1-8 / Total cume: $163M / Wk 3

4). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,505 theaters (+15) / 3-day cume: $16.5M (-43%) / Per screen: $4,715 / Total cume: $57M / Wk 2

5). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,273 theaters (+100) / 3-day cume: $14.7 (-69%) / Per screen: $4,519 / Total cume: $80.7M / Wk 2

6). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 3,042 theaters (-597) / 3-day cume: $9.8M (-35%) / Per  screen: $3,227 / Total cume: $206.2M / Wk 4

7). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / 3-day cume: $3.3M (-46%) / Per screen: $1,586 / Total cume: $191.4M / Wk 5

8). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 2,413 theaters (-747) / 3-day cume: $3.2M (-56%) / Per screen: $1,345 / Total cume: $37.1M / Wk 3

9). Neighbors (UNI), 1,896 theaters (-778) / 3-day cume: $2.3M (-56%) / Per screen: $1,250 / Total cume: $143M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 1,102 theaters (-196) / 3-day cume: $2.1M (-17%) / Per screen: $1,985 / Total cume: $13.98M / Wk 6

10th UPDATE, MONDAY, 9 AM: Both Sony (Columbia)/MGM’s 22 Jump Street and Fox/DreamWorks’ How To Train Your Dragon 2 came up a little short of yesterday’s estimates with slightly larger than expected drops on Father’s Day Sunday. Jump Street declined 29% to gross $56.9M/$57M and How To Train Your Dragon 2 dropped 20% yesterday for a new estimate of $49.3M/$49.5M. The softer than expected opening of Dragon 2 it was tracking in the mid-$50Ms going into the weekend — made an impact on the stock price this morning for DreamWorks (see related story). Meanwhile, Fox’s The Fault in Our Stars dropped about 69% in its second weekend and Edge of Tomorrow held with only a 43% drop in its sophomore frame and actually lifted up a bit on Sunday. Final numbers will be published in a few hours. Until then that’s how it looks for estimates this AM.

9th UPDATE, SUNDAY 7:15 AM: A softer-than-expected Saturday for moviegoing now has 22 Jump Street just a smidgen over or under $60M and How To Train Your Dragon 2 hovering around $50M+, yet those are still two good openings and account for a significant 60% of the Top Ten box office marketshare this AM. Jonah-Hill-Ice-Cube-and-Channing-Tatum-in-22-Jump-Street-2014-Movie-Image_Fotor_Fotor22 Jump Street started out strong Friday, front-loaded with the teens and 2o-somethings who had long anticipated this sequel. By yesterday’s matinees, it was clear that it was softening and looks like it dropped 26% from Friday (that includes that $5.5M late night Thursday). It becomes the second-biggest R-rated comedy behind Hangover II and grossed 65% higher than the first installment.

RELATED: International Box Office – ‘Godzilla’ thrashes again with $38 million weekend led by China

Toothless_Hiccup_Gallery1_FotorFox’s How to Train Your Dragon 2, which opened to $2M in late nights, was down about 7% yesterday to take in roughly $17M so its new estimated three-day cume is $50M and change. This animated sequel will breathe fire for awhile but not sure this will speak to investors as the company has seen its shares slide after disappointing business from Mr. Peabody & Sherman earlier this year, Turbo and Rise of the Guardiansall of which took write-downs. Still, this film written and directed by Dean DeBlois was very well executed and exit polls show that. It received an A CinemaScore overall, with an audience mix of 52% female and 47% male and receiving an A+ from those under 25 (kids loved this, scoring 92% in the top two boxes). Its opening weekend was only 14.4% higher than the first installment, which bowed four years ago to $43.7M.

Maleficent-Official-TrailerFather’s Day Sunday is expected to be another strong day for family films (including Disney’s Maleficent which held its own this weekend at No. 3). We’re calculating only a 10% to 15% decline today on those two films. How to Train Your Dragon 2 also opened internationally in 25 markets to stellar results. For that and other overseas grosses amidst World Cup madness, read Nancy Tartaglione’s international story.

“We had hoped to beat Dragon 1 and we did. With the clear playing field ahead of us, I see nothing stopping it from playing out,” said Fox President of Distribution Chris Aronson, “It’s one of those times where critics and audiences are aligned. I really think it is a beloved property. With all that combined, the result is playability.” He’s right. Nothing should stop it until Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue which bows in July 18. Relativity has Earth to Echo (which looks like a lower-budgeted, less engaging E.T.), but no one is expecting much from it.


RELATED: Specialty Box Office – Robert Pattinson’s ‘The Rover’ Runs Strongly In Blah Weekend

That takes us to the second weekends of last weekend’s tearjerker The Fault in Our Stars (FOX) and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner Edge of Tomorrow (WB), both of which are in international release as well. Fault is dropping hard in its second weekend (which we predicted) with a 67% decline weekend to weekend (that includes that whopping $8.3M Thursday). Still, it doesn’t matter much as it is already enjoying a profit. It was a $12M negative cost and even with domestic/int’l marketing and distribution costs, it will still make a pretty penny as it sits at about $81.8M after this weekend. It’s rolling out to 21 more markets this weekend internationally.

On the flipside, Edge of Tomorrow, which was clearly geared towards an international audience, has not done well domestically. Although it is holding pretty well from last weekend on about the same number of screens (-44%) and I hear it’s not a bad movie, its cume is only at $56.5M after two weekends in release. With a better hold on Saturday, Edge slipped past Fault to take the No. 4 spot last night. Edge is finding more life internationally this weekend. Be sure to check our international report.

XXX EOT-TRL2-01925R.JPG D ENTThe summer tentpoles are opening strong and then burning out fast and most of the distribs are pushing or dragging them across the $200M mark and, as if the press doesn’t understand what they are doing, those around the films are sending out every notification possible to note certain box-office milestones such as the one we got this AM: ‘This is Tom Cruise’s 20th film to cross $200M.’ That is, let’s face it, lipstick on a pig. Actually, not a pig, as I understand it’s a decent movie … let’s say, lipstick on ugly b.o. results. The landscape is changing fast and there is no time to nurture these big-budget films anymore as they are one right after another. What’s going to happen in 2016 when the sequels will be out in rapid-fire fashion? There is a sense of panic among the studios this summer so far. Maybe all filmmakers and studio executives should move back to the heartland for awhile to get back in touch with the people who actually buy the tickets. There’s a reason that Heaven is For Real, God’s Not Dead and Son of God were some of the most profitable films this year, and why audiences fell in love with Frozen and flocked to a fun romp like The Lego Movie.

On a personal note, for all you fathers out there, Happy Father’s Day! And for those of you who don’t have your dads anymore (I miss my Atticus) or dads who don’t have their children anymore (and I know way too many), may you find your smile today.

1). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters / $25M Fri. / $18.6M Sat. (-25%) / $60M Sun. (-10%) / 3-day estimated cume: $60M / Wk 1

2). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,253 theaters / $18.5M Fri. / $17M Sat. (-7%) / $14.6M Sun. (-15%) / 3-day cume: $50M+ / Wk 1

3). Maleficent (DIS), 3,623 theaters (-325) / $5.8M Fri. / $7.25M Sat. (+25%) / $6.5M Sun. (-10%) / 3-day cume: $19M to $19.4M (-44%) / Total expected cume: $164M / Wk 3

4). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,505 theaters (+15) / $4.5M Fri. / $6M Sat. (+33%) / $5.4M Sun. (-10%) / 3-day cume: $16M (-46%) / Total cume: $56.5M / Wk 2

5). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,273 theaters (+100) / $6.3M Fri. / $5.7M Sat. (-10%) / $3.7M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $15.7 (-67%) / Total cume: $81.7M / Wk 2

6). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 3,042 theaters (-597) / $2.6M Fri. / $3.6M Sat. (+34%) / $3.2M Sun. (-10%) / 3-day cume: $9.5M (-37%) / Total cume: $205.9M / Wk 4

7). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / $870K Fri. / $1.2M Sat. (+37%) / $1M Sun. (-15%) / 3-day cume: $3.1M (-49%) / Total cume: $191.2M / Wk 5

8). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 2,413 theaters (-747) / $941K Fri. / $1.2 Sat. (+32%) / $924K Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $3M (-58%) / Total cume: $36.9M / Wk 3

9). Neighbors (UNI), 1,896 theaters (-778) / $806K Fri. / $948K Sat. (+17%) / $664K Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $2.4M (-54%) / Total cume: $143.1M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 1,102 theaters (-196) / $605K Fri. / $928K Sat. (+52%) / $740K Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $2.2M (-16%) / Total cume: $14M / Wk 6

8th UPDATE, SATURDAY, 10:44 PM: As we indicated earlier in the day, it quieted down a bit for Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Streetand it looks like today the R-rated comedy chased in anywhere from $18.5M to $19.4M to put it at right around $60M or a little less for the three-day weekend. It dropped about 25% from Friday to today. How To Train Your Dragon 2 from Fox/DreamWorks Animation dropped a bit more than expected as well (about 8% from Friday) and is now looking at a $17M Saturday take around $50M or a little under.22-Jump-Street-Jenko-and-Schmidt It’s a good film so expect it to play for a few weeks unimpeded. Nevertheless, it’s a strong weekend for both pics.

In the No. 3 position is Maleficent from Disney which held its own despite a new family-friendly entry coming into the marketplace. It was up about 21% Saturday to grab an estimated $7.15M and is on track to take in around $19M to $20M for the weekend; its total cume after three weeks is around $164M.

how-to-train-your-dragon-2-early-headerA Fault in Our Stars, which was the big opener last weekend from Fox with $48M, will bring in another $5.6M or so today to push its three-day weekend estimates lower to around $15.8M to $16M. It took a 12% tumble from Friday. We expected it to take a big hit in its sophomore frame. And rounding out the Top Five is Warner Bros.’ Edge of Tomorrow, the sci-fi actioner which got a little bit better action at the turnstile Saturday than expected — up 30% from yesterday — with $5.9M to push it to around $15.6M for the three-day. Still, nothing to crow about as it’s still on track for about $55.7M after two weeks in release. Tough break. That’s how it looks tonight and will have a better idea after the dust clears in the AM.

7th UPDATE, SATURDAY, 4:17 PM: 22 Jump Street is playing softer today in matinees so looks more like $60M or less right now. More to come this evening but it’s dropping a larger percentage than anticipated (so hope business picks up tonight). How to Train Your Dragon 2 is packing them in on family Saturday so expect that to come in around $52M to $53M now. Stay tuned. 

22 jump street6th UPDATE, SATURDAY, 7:18 AM: Sony (Columbia)/MGM’s 22 Jump Street brought in an estimated $25M last night after all the box office receipts were tallied and looks to take in the high-end of last night’s estimate, around $62M+. The Fox/DreamWorks’ Animation family-friendly pic How to Train Your Dragon 2 flew in with $18.5M and if it holds steady tonight and sees only about a 20% decline on Sunday, it will gross around $51.8M to $52M+. There’s only been a few times in box office history where two pictures opened to over $50M on the same weekend (See analysis below and click-thru to see the Top Ten chart).

So what does it all mean? Those at the studio are whispering that the budget of 22 Jump Street was $50M, however, we checked and after a $16M to $17M production incentive from filming in Louisiana and Puerto Rico, its budget ended up, according to calculations around $65M+. I can confirm that their $50M budget number is not accurate as the initial budget was north of $80M before the tax breaks. Add that same roughly $65M for marketing and distribution costs here and abroad and then you must figure in participations between stars Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum as well as the filmmakers. So it’s not all cut and dried in terms of how profitable this picture will be — higher budget than the first, higher take at the box office by far. Gotta say that the ending credits were pretty darn funny. Bravo to directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for coming up with that (after the success of The Lego Movie, are they having a killer year or what?), and kudos all around for opening this film under the tutelage of president of marketing newbie (only 9 months in the job) Dwight Caines. I thought the movie and the dialogue were ridiculous … but the demo loved it and gave it an A- CinemaScore last night. Don’t see anything really stopping it next weekend either … another Kevin Hart offering, maybe … so distrib folks found a good date. The picture was produced by Neil Moritz.

“We have a really funny movie and it performed beautifully,” said Rory Bruer, president of worldwide distribution. “Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum have incredible chemistry and Lord and Miller know funny. They all worked really hard. After our first screening, we knew had the highest-rated R-rated comedy ever, and the critics love it so it’s firing on all cylinders.” 22 is now the second-highest opening for an R-rated film in history behind Hangover II ($85.9M).

eret_gallery_011How to Train Your Dragon 2 … again those at the studio are saying the budget is at $145M but we’ve heard significantly higher. This family pic should do significant business internationally and we can expect it to have some long legs domestically as there is nothing that’s going to touch it until mid-July when Disney enters the market with Planes: Fire & Rescue. Sure, Relativity has an family pic coming (Earth to Echo) but it is not expected to do much at the box office. How to Train Your Dragon 2 will clean up in home entertainment, too. DreamWorks Animation delivered a well done movie and audiences loved it, giving it an A CinemaScore. Kudos to writer/director Dean DeBlois for delivering a very entertaining and well-written film.

The Fault in Our Stars is going to have a second weekend drop of about 65% for Fox; we predicted last week it would take a hard hit — this, after a stellar Thursday night artificially bouyed by those $25 a pop tickets from the simulcast and a whopping $8.3M in a front-loaded three-day. It’s expected cume is going to be around $82M to $83M. Great for a pic that the studio said had a $12M aggregate budget. Profitable? Oh yeah.

Edge-of-Tomorrow-trailer-largeAfter a Friday estimated gross of $4.5M, the second weekend of Warner Bros.’ Edge of Tomorrow will drop about 48% from its opening weekend to gross a three-day of around $15M to $15.6M. That places its cume at only $55.4M to $56M+. On a big-budget — around $170M to $180M. Ugh.

NOTEWORTHY: Fox’s X-Men: Days of Future Past crosses $200M after four weeks in release and Sony’s The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which the studio is pulling across the $200M mark domestically next week (after seven long weeks in release), crossed $700M globally last night. The first installment did $757M+ ww.  Here’s the chart:

1). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters / $25M Fri. / 3-day estimated cume: $62M+ / Wk 1

2). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,253 theaters / $18.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $51.8M to $52M+ / Wk 1

3). Maleficent (DIS), 3,623 theaters (-325) / $5.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $19.5M to $20M+ (-43%) / Total expected cume: $164M+ / Wk 3

4). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,273 theaters (+100) / $6.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $17M (-64%) / Total cume: $83.3M / Wk 2

5). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,505 theaters (+15) / $4.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $15M to $15.6M (-48%) / Total cume: $55.4M to $56M+ / Wk 2

6). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 3,042 theaters (-597) / $2.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M+ (-39%) / Total cume: $205.6M / Wk 4

7). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / $870K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.9M to $3.2M (-50%) / Total cume: $191M+ / Wk 5

8). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 2,413 theaters (-747) / $925K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.7M to $2.9M (-62%) / Total cume: $36.7M / Wk 3

9). Neighbors (UNI), 1,896 theaters (-778) / $800K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.5M (-54%) / Total cume: $143M+ / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 1,102 theaters (-196) / $605K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.1M (-15%) / Total cume: $14M / Wk 6

5th UPDATE, FRIDAY, 10:42 PM: Tonight it looks like 22 Jump Street‘s numbers and How to Train Your Dragon 2 grosses are right in line with our 9 PM estimates and they are going to take around 58% of the market share of the Top Ten (the way it looks right now). 22 Jump Street has an A- CinemaScore and Dragon 2 received an A. I just adjusted estimates accordingly in the chart below for Edge of Tomorrow and The Fault in Our Stars‘ second weekend. As always, numbers and positions may change in the AM. Until then … see Top Ten chart below.

22-jump-street-pics-74th UPDATE, FRIDAY 9:25 PM: It’s early, but here’s what it looks like right now — a big weekend as expected with the two opening sequels doing outstanding numbers. After a phemon Thursday late night and strong matinees today, Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Street looks to take in around $24M+ on a path to an arresting $61.7M to $62M for the three-day to best Ted’s opening of $54.4M two years ago. Hangover 2 three years ago made $85.9M on a holiday weekend. That means Sony will have bragging rights as the biggest debut for an R-rated comedy (non-holiday) and second-biggest of all time. The Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum sequel is also on its way to best the first installment’s opening by about 70%. And overseas, Sony slid the pic into the UK right before the World Cup kick off to an $8.2M opening, roughly three times the gross of the original film and 47% more than recent hit Neighbors.

Hookfang_snotlout_gallery1The other opener, Fox/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2, which debuted in late nights with $2M and also enjoyed strong matinee business, so far is expected to take in about $18M+ Friday to tally around $50.5M to $53M for the weekend — that would be a 15% to 18% increase from the first installment which bowed four years ago. It’s opening in 20 markets internationally this weekend. This animated pic, one of the best I’ve seen come out of DreamWorks Animation in a while, is expected to do much better than Jump Street overseas. (Why? The humor of 22 has a hard time translating well outside of English-speaking countries).

The Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner Edge of Tomorrow, which is still on IMAX this weekend splitting the time with Dragon 2, is holding with a 44% drop in its sophomore frame, but audiences never came for the opening weekend which was badly needed for this big-budget Warner Bros.’ film. After a very strong 2014 start, the studio seems to be flagging a bit. After this weekend, Edge will have only grossed about $56.5M but double that overseas. Still not enough.

the-fault-in-our-stars-1200-800-new-clip-the-fault-in-our-stars-grenade-scene-will-destroy-youFox’s The Fault in Our Stars, as expected will take a big hit in its second weekend, down about 60% as it looks right now and that’s after adding 100 theaters. But with a cume after this weekend of around $84.5M, it’s profitable and that’s what matters.

The other Fox property in the Top Ten, its franchise X-Men: Days of Tomorrow will pass $200M domestically after four weeks (with a ww tally of over $625M after this weekend), while Spidey’s cume will be at about $198.2M after this weekend and seven long weeks in release. And Warner Bros./Legendary Pics’ Godzilla may become the only $90M opener in history never to reach $200M; it just opened huge in China for the studio. This is what it looks like right now. Will update later.

1). 22 Jump Street (SONY), 3,306 theaters / $24M Fri. / 3-day estimated cume: $61.7M to $62M / Wk 1

2). How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX), 4,253 theaters / $18.1M to $18.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $50.8M to $53M / Wk 1

3). Maleficent (DIS), 3,623 theaters (-325) / $5.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $19M to $20M+ (-42%) / Total expected cume: $164.5M / Wk 3

4). The Fault In Our Stars (FOX), 3,273 theaters (+100) / $6.4M to $6.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $18.5M to $19M (-61%) / Total cume: $84.5M / Wk 2

5). Edge of Tomorrow (WB), 3,505 theaters (+15) / $4.2M to $4.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $15.6M to $16M (-46%) / Total cume: $56.5M / Wk 2

6). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 3,042 theaters (-597) / $2.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M+ (-39%) / Total cume: $205.7M / Wk 4

7). Godzilla (WB), 2,088  theaters (-1,022) / $962K Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.3M (-46%) / Total cume: $191.4M / Wk 5

8). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 2,413 theaters (-747) / $925K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.7M to $3M (-59%) / Total cume: $36.9M / Wk 3

9). Neighbors (UNI), 1,896 theaters (-778) / $805K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.5M (-53%) / Total cume: $143.2M / Wk 6

10). Chef (OPRD), 1,102 theaters (-196) / $583K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.1M (-19%) / Total cume: $13.9M / Wk 6

3RD UPDATE, FRIDAY 12:12 PM: Matinees for both 22 Jump Street and How to Train to Dragon 2 are performing very well today, and estimates now look like $25M for tonight for Jump Street for a $65M possible three-day take with Dragon pulling in maybe $21M tonight for a $58M-$60M weekend. This will be a big box office weekend, with two pictures expected to grab a significant market share out of the Top Ten. Stay tuned.

RelatedIntl Box Office: ‘Godzilla’ Stomps Into China

how-to-train-your-dragon-2-trailer2ND UPDATE, FRIDAY 9:33 AM: How To Train Your Dragon 2 numbers just came in and it’s a solid $2M for late nights. Given that the audience for this film is going to come in on Saturday and Sunday, it’s a respectable number. The last really big animated picture opening — and how ironic is this — was from 22 Jump Street‘s Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, who gave audiences the smartly written The Lego Movie. That Warner Bros pic played across quadrants with a $17.2M Friday and went on to gross $69M for the three-day. Dragon 2 should open big and have smooth sailing for a long while as there is no wide animated release until July 18 when Walt Disney Pictures’ Planes: Fire & Rescue comes into the marketplace. Dragon 2 is a very well-done film so expect this Dragon to breathe fire for a long while. Five weeks and a July 4th holiday in between (Relativity’s Earth to Echo bows July 4, but is not expected to do much business). And that’s how you pick a distribution date! What’s very interesting (and quite unusual) this weekend is that IMAX is actually splitting the screens between Dragon 2 and the Tom Cruise-starrer Edge Of Tomorrow, giving the animated family film the day slots and the adult Edge the night slots.

22_Jump_StreetUPDATE, FRIDAY, 8:11 AM: While we’re still waiting for the late-night gross report for Fox/DreamWorks’ Animation’s How To Train Your Dragon 2, Thursday late night was good to Sony (Columbia)/MGM’s 22 Jump Street pulling in a very strong $5.5M. 22 began their late-nights at 7 PM and Dragon 2 at 8 PM.

Comparatively, Neighbors also started at 8 PM and grossed $2.5M and went on to an opening three-day of $49M. Jackass: Bad Grandpa opened at 9 PM in October of last year to a $1.4M early take and ended up opening at $32M. Ted, based only on midnights, grossed $2.6M in and went onto nab $54.4M.

Both 22 and Dragon 2 have Jonah Hill in their films (one as a co-star and the other voicing a character) and both are sequels so already have significant fan bases.Now that the teens and 20-somethings have seen the film last night, there are two moments in the film that concern homophobic slurs, including one where a bad guy calls Hill and Channing’s characters ‘faggots’ with Channing turning on the guy giving him a lecture about how horrible it is to do such a thing. Life imitates art.  As everyone knows who is not living under a rock, Hill was caught on camera calling a paparazzi a ‘faggot’ which prompted a flurry of damage control actions. He apologized and then later was attacked for not being sincere enough. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Will audiences this age care? Not according to ticket sales, but it was a hell of an irony.

According to Fandango, 22 is outselling both Ted and Neighbors (also R-rated comedies – both from Uni) right now at the same point in the ticket sales cycle, while Dragon 2 is outselling Rio 2, The Croods and Hotel Transylvania

While Hill bowed out of social media after the slur, he came back this past week on Twitter. According to RelishMix, which monitors social engagement of the fans on the Big Three (YouTube, Facebook and Twitter), Hill’s Twitter feed just spiked as he’s back at it. Channing Tatum is a social powerhouse in himself. “He’s feeding his fourteen million FaceBook and six million Twitter fans who are wildly active with his Hollywood premiere selfies,” says Marc Karzen, CEO of RelishMix. And as we all know, social media is exactly where the fan base for 22 lives and breathes.

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'22 Jump Street' & 'How To Train Your Dragon 2' Take Off

Deadline's Anita Busch predicts that the R-rated Channing Tatum-Jonah Hill pic will top the frame, but with both movies opening strong in Thursday late-nights it's clear there is something for everyone at theaters this weekend.

PREVIOUSLY, THURSDAY, 12:08 PM: It will be a huge weekend at the box office with both Sony/MGM’s 22 Jump Street and Fox/DreamWHow-to-Train-Your-Dragon-2orks Animation’s How To Train Your Dragon 2 opening wide. Not only do both of them have Jonah Hill involved — he co-stars in 22 and voices a character in Dragon — but they both are expected to make over $50M this weekend in a neck-and-neck race for the No. 1 spot that starts tonight; 22 is opening at 7 PM tonight and Dragon is opening at 8 PM.

It has happened before when two pictures opened to over $50M on the same weekend: Last year when World War Z and Disney’s Monsters University both opened way above $60M, in 2012 when the R-rated Prometheus and the animated family film Madagascar 3 opened over $50M, and also in 2008 when the G-rated Wall-E and the R-rated Wanted opened. The pattern, of course, is an adult-themed and family-themed pic moving in to the same weekend and emerging victorious. So it can happen again this weekend.

The first installment of How To Train Your Dragon grossed to $43.7M in March 2010 and went on to gross $217.5M domestically. This one opens as kids are on summer vacation, so I expect it higher. It is also opening in 20 markets this weekend internationally with Russia accounting for 2,250 screens of the total 3,750 or 60%.Jonah Hill, left, and Channing Tatum in Columbia Pictures' "22 Jump Street."

The sequel to 21 Jump Street tested higher than any R-rated comedy in Sony’s history, the studio said today. The first film opened to $36.3M in March 2012 — a non-summer release — and the studio boasted it was the biggest opening of a non-summer, non-sequel, R-rated comedy. Yeah, all the qualifiers, right? Comedy in itself. Anyway, the film is directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, and if they may sound familiar as they were the team behind The Lego Movie which was probably the biggest opening for a non-summer, non-sequel, PG-rated, animated film starring Batman and with a cameo by Will Ferrell. Ahem! It is already rolling out overseas. The budget for this baby is around $65.5M with profit participations with co-star Tatum Channing, Hill and the filmmakers.

Also, in its second weekend is The Fault In Our Stars which opened to a whopping $48M last weekend and is already going into profit, and the big-budget Edge Of Tomorrow, which didn’t open well last weekend for its star Tom Cruise in the states but is doing much better overseas. Much of Edge‘s storyline is, in fact, more tailored to an international audience as a lot of the action takes place Germany, France, Spain, Italy and eventually into the heart of Paris. Most people I know who have seen this film enjoy it; Warner Bros. is hoping it will have legs, but its mid-week numbers are meh.

fault-in-our-stars-posterFault In Our Stars could plummet in its sophomore frame — if it falls 50% or higher, expect it in the high teens, but its midweek numbers have been respectable. That little pic is already at at $58.1M gross since opening a week ago. Comparatively, last night, Fault grossed $5M against $3.4M for Edge which has a total to date of $35.4M.

In the matter of the big tentpoles, Warner Bros./Legendary Pictures’ Godzilla bows in China this weekend. The Lizard opened to $93.1M about a month ago and is at $187.5M domestically. It looks to fall short of $200M, which will be the only film in history to open at over $90M and not step over that threshold. Fox’s X-Men: Days Of Future Past is currently at $195M and Sony’s The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is currently at around $197.2M and the studio is pulling it over the $200M mark now after six weeks in release.