Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office PreviewHoping to carry the momentum from its overseas debut, where it has already racked up $155M in two weeks, Sony‘s The Amazing Spider-Man 2 bow domestically tonight on 4,324 screens (including 353 IMAX) and is expected to open about 30% higher than the first installment for the three-day weekend. The picture has always played well across all demos, but this time around, ticket sales are outpacing the first Amazing Spider-Man in 2012 and currently represents 90% of Fandango’s weekend ticket sales.

Fandango chief correspondent Dave Karger said that this one is outpacing the buzz of the first one, which is good news for the studio: “We’re selling more tickets for the sequel than we did for the first film.” As it should be.

Related: Hot Trailer: The Amazing Spider-Man 2

There is one notable difference: The first Amazing Spider-Man opened during the July 4th holiday, which landed on a Wednesday, so its opening was on a Tuesday and it grossed $35M. It went onto make $62M on its first weekend (post-Fourth of July). The sequel is opening minus a holiday weekend, so if this one grosses maybe $15M tonight, and then another $30M-$35M on Friday, it looks on track for a $90M+ weekend. If estimates come in lower after Friday night attendance, all eyes will be on the Saturday bump.

sonypicInternationally, the film is still rolling out with France and Brazil bowing tonight and then China on Sunday. By then, Spidey will be in around 40 markets. With an international opening of $47M, the Sony tentpole marked the biggest opening of 2014 when it bowed two weeks ago in 14 markets. In the UK/Ireland, Spidey grabbed $15M and marked a 49% bigger opening than Captain America: The Winter Soldier in the territory. But in 2012, the first installment has a UK opening-weekend tally of $17.1M. The same group of markets, Sony says, opened comparably to the first, and watching its rollout, that is very true: some markets are higher and some have been lower. Spider-Man has done particularly well overseas traditionally, although it has yet to top the $1B mark like other Marvel titles have done. China should be a great box office catch for this film as the first installment did exceptionally well, grossing a total of $48.8M in 2012. Latin America is also usually very strong for Spider-Man as is Japan, Korea and Russia — which together brought in $96.8M in 2012.

The performance of Amazing Spider-Man 2 is crucial for the studio. The production budget is said to be around $255M, with about $185M-$190M spent on marketing. That means all in it needs to make more than $752.2M worldwide (which is what the first installment grossed). About 65% of the first installment’s gross came from international markets. The domestic audience has declined slightly for Spider-Man so if it does not perform strongly stateside, it will need to make up the difference internationally or vice versa.

amazing spider man 2The last four Spider-Man movies have have all grossed more than $400M and all have worldwide grosses of over $750M. The first had an estimated $230M negative and went onto gross 65% of its worldwide cume from international markets.

So far, the international news has been good: In Mexico, Amazing Spider-Man 2 became the highest opener of the year. Korea opened to No. 1 last weekend with $13.4M and marked the fourth-biggest market for the first installment in 2012 (taking in a cume of $38.5M). It opened No. 1 in Russia, 3% above the first installment and in Italy opened 20% above the first film. It also topped the first film in other Latin America territories.

Also this frame, we will see the second weekend of Fox’s The Other Woman, which is likely to come in at No. 2, and Sony/TriStar’s Heaven is For Real has a real shot of taking the No. 3 spot.