EXCLUSIVE: It was a surprise to me, but Adobe Systems does business with companies that account for as much as 80% of online movie ticket sales. And with that info, plus social media data, today it’s introducing its ability to give studios a weeks-in-advance peek at how upcoming films are likely to perform. “The model, which we built using social data measured by Adobe Marketing Cloud, was able to accurately predict The Conjuring as a surprise winner last summer, a full 20 days in advance of the movie’s release,” says Principal Analyst Tamara Gaffney. “Analysis of social buzz data is a must-have for movie marketers to optimize advertising campaigns and identify potential surprise winners and losers.” Adobe’s putting itself on the line by making a few predictions for the holiday season. Paramount’s Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (just postponed to January) “will be surprise hits.” In addition, and not so surprisingly, buzz for Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Warner Bros’ The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug, and Disney’s Thor: The Dark World is “well above average”, suggesting that “you can expect all of these movies to generate revenue above the cost.” Adobe is pessimistic, though, about Lionsgate’s Ender’s Game and Disney’s Delivery Man. Chatter for these films is “limited and suggests that both movies will be in line with non-profitable movies this year.” Adobe says that it’s becoming easier to make predictions like these because moviegoers disclose so much information about themselves on the Web including blogs and social media sites such as Facebook, Google+, Reddit, YouTube, Twitter, and Tumblr. Twenty days before a movie is released, comments for profitable releases tends to be 600% higher than for non-profitable ones.
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