The studio could take the hit in its Q4 report, Lazard Capital Markets’ Barton Crockett predicts this morning, which might result in a 6 cent per share loss for the quarter vs his previous estimate for a 30 cent profit. Crockett figures that Rise Of The Guardians will end up generating $130M at domestic box offices, plus $276M overseas (similar to How To Train Your Dragon) with sales of 4.9M DVDs (compared to 6.1M for Megamind). What’s more, the analyst says that the “muted performance” of Guardians “is prompting us to pare-back box office assumptions for the rest of the 2013 slate” which includes The Croods, Turbo and Mr. Peabody And Sherman. He figures each film could generate $160M domestically and $325M abroad. That would take earnings to about 98 cents a share in 2013 — down from his previous forecast for $1.52 — even though the new films will cost less to produce, and Turbo could generate lots of licensing revenue from a toy deal with Mattel. If DreamWorks has another money-loser in 2013 “investor confidence could be rattled,” Crockett says. “We see enough risks in a slate thick with new franchise attempts to believe the more prudent course, for now, is to maintain a modest movie outlook.”
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