Only four of last month’s 12 major movie releases are clearly destined to be profitable according to the latest monthly tally from SNL Kagan. The research firm says that DreamWorks Animation’s Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted should lead the pack with projected total revenues (at $783.3M) coming in 2.31 times higher than total costs (of $339.4M). Kagan forecasts each film’s revenues from all sources, except for merchandise and second-cycle TV sales. It compares that to all the expenses it can identify, except for things like distribution fees, interest, profit participations and residuals. Since Kagan can’t account for everything, it figures a film is clearly profitable if estimated revenues are at least 1.75 times estimated costs. Films with an expected revenues-to-costs ratio of at least 1.40 are considered to be in a gray areas while those below 1.40 are deemed likely unprofitable. By that standard, Warner Bros’ Magic Mike came in second at 2.23 ($252.6M revenues to $113.5M costs), followed by Universal’s Ted at 2.20 ($439.4M to $199.4M), and Disney/Pixar’s Brave at 2.11 ($788.9M to $374.1M). Those on the bubble are Lionsgate’s Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection at 1.57 ($91.2M to $58.3M), Fox’s Prometheus at 1.54 ($450.7M to $292.0M), and Universal’s Snow White And The Huntsman at 1.52 ($531.4M to $349.7M).
Others that look unprofitable are: Warner Bros’ Rock of Ages at 0.56 ($108.0M to $193.1M), Fox’s Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter at 0.55 ($95.5M to $173.5M), Disney’s People Like Us at 0.50 ($44.6M to $89.0M), Columbia Pictures’ That’s My Boy at 0.48 ($82.8M to $171.6M), and Focus Features’ Seeking A Friend For the End Of The World at 0.38 ($20.3M to $53.6M).
All told, the average ratio for the films was 1.53 which compares with 1.94 for eight films released the same month last year and 1.56 for the 11 films out in June 2010.