Only two of eight major movies released last month are clearly destined to make a profit — and one of them is, surprise!, Marvel’s The Avengers — according to SNL Kagan’s latest monthly tally. The firm says that The Avengers is likely to generate more than $2B in revenues from all sources (excluding merchandise sales) on total costs of $473.2M. The 4.24 ratio of expected revenues over costs is well above the 1.75 threshold that Kagan says establishes a film as clearly profitable. To account for revenue splits, expenses and variables that analysts can’t determine, the firm classifies films with a ratio of less than 1.75 but more than 1.40 as being in a gray area while those below 1.40 are deemed probably unprofitable. By that measure, Fox Searchlight’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel fared well, with a ratio of 2.60 ($169.6M in revenues on $65.2M in costs). Columbia’s Men In Black 3 is on the bubble with 1.53 ($687.2M over $450.0M). Films likely to spill red ink include include Universal’s Battleship ($450M over $401.8M), Paramount’s The Dictator ($171.6M over $176.1M), Warner Bros’ Dark Shadows ($279.3M over $293.4M), Warner Bros’ Chernobyl Diaries ($59.4M over $87.4M), and Lionsgate’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting ($66.8M over $121.5M).
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