EXCLUSIVE: The international rollout starts Wednesday. But I’ve just learned that an internal Summit Entertainment estimate puts this weekend’s domestic opening of Breaking Dawn Part 1 at $110 million to $125 million. That will make this fourth film in the Twilight Saga franchise the 2nd biggest weekend debut since the studio began making Stephenie Meyer’s vampire romance novels into films — behind only the Twilight sequel New Moon. [UPDATE: Rival studios think Summit is lowballing and expect Breaking Dawn to debut to $142+M.] And remember this is a female-driven 2D movie. It’s the 3D fanboy-driven movies that have been so hurt by slumping box office of late. Once again, the newest installment will be releasing into more than 4,061 locations in North America. No number of theaters yet known for the midnight opening Thursday. Since the franchise began, Twilight opened domestically to $69.6M in 2008, New Moon to $142.8M in 2009, Eclipse to $64.8M in 2010.
As for the day and date international rollout, here’s the release schedule: November 16th Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland; November 17th – Australia, Argentina, Bahrain, Bolivia, Chile, CIS, Croatia, Czech, Denmark, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Lebanon, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Peru, Portugal, Qatar, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, UAE, Ukraine; November 18th – Aruba, Brazil, Bulgaria, Colombia, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Indonesia, Latvia, Lithuania, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Taiwan, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, West Indies, UK. (Previous: YIKES! Twilight Fans Already Lining Up For ‘Breaking Dawn′ Premiere)
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